Preview to the games this weekend plus betting tips

I must admit that after the last blog I was very pleased with myself. Only one losing tip and one refund and all the others winners makes it three weekends in a row I’ve been in profit from domestic league fixtures. Hopefully all of you who read this have been following with your hard earned cash?

This week saw quite a few European leagues having a full programme of fixtures. Sadly I don’t have the hours in the day to compile full blogs for these sort of weeks, but if you follow me @TopTopTips on Twitter (cheap plug) then you’ll see I also post tips during the week on there. I will try to do some Champions League and Europa League tips in blog form in future though. I usually do quite well on them so it’s only fair to share.

Music this week comes from a recently discovered band, Nothington with Not Looking Down.

Stoke v Man Utd, Saturday 1730

I have already made my feelings well known on here and Twitter about how I think the English media is getting slightly too excited about United’s quick start to the season. So far they have beaten an Arsenal team in absolute disarray, a Bolton side who look like relegation candidates, a Spurs side who hadn’t started the season at all and then Chelsea in a match they could as easily have lost. They look dodgy at the back when really tested, and whilst the centre of misfield has improved it is only an upgrade from rubbish to average. The form of Nani and Rooney is disguising what is not the best side I have ever seen by a long way.

Stoke have started the season looking the most likely side to spring a surprise in the league’s upper echelons. To use all the cliches, they are hard to beat, physical and never give up. Whilst I would by no means pay to watch them every week, Tony Pulis has done an excpetional job in moulding them into a more effective side every season. This, similarly to the Benfica match, is another proper test of how good this United side is. I’m happy to bet against the Reds this week at current prices.

Back Stoke and the Draw Double Chance at 2.5 with Paddy Power.

QPR v Aston Villa, Sunday 1600

There are two ways of looking at Villa’s start under Alex McLeish. You can see them as unbeaten or you can see them as only having won one match against an exceptionally poor Blackburn side. I have looked at their prices most weeks and often considered them good value, only to then see them fail to win. The problem, as with most McLeish sides, seems to be the complete lack of adventure in their play. Darren Bent will not drop into midfield or pull to the wings and create, you supply him constant chances and he puts away a good percentage. So far this season that has not happened and Villa are struggling, and some fans are already restless.

QPR have moved on considerably from an opening day defeat to Bolton and appointing Tony Fernandes as owner. The late deadline day signings like Joey Barton and Shaun Wright-Phillips have proved successful and results have really turned around. There is no lack of effort and also some quality in the form of the two mentioned players. Back them to continue their good run in this one.

Back QPR at 2.4 with William Hill before that price goes.

Borussia Monchengladbach v Nurnberg, Saturday 1430

My continuing love affair with Monchengladbach was again repaid last weekend with a tight win. They are on a great early run and are putting a string of wins together. Whether this can be maintained over the course of the season is debatable, but the Bundesliga is probably the league where teams like Borussia are most likely to spring a surprise, so don’t be surprised by a European campaign next season. They currently sit third in the table, only two points behind mighty Bayern Munich, and have only lost once and conceded a miserly three goals in six matches.

Nurnberg are by no means a poor side, they are currently mid-table at this early stage and actually have a decent away record of two wins and a loss from three matches. However, they have found goals hard to come by with only six in six matches so far. As mentioned Monchen have a very good defence and this does not bode well for a team struggling to hit the back of the net.

Back Monchengladbach at 2.1 with Victor Chandler.

Athletic Bilbao v Villarreal, Saturday 1700

Athletic Bilbao are one of a small number of clubs around Europe that have appointed a new manager and are really struggling to come to terms with the new system being introduced. For a number of years a trip to Bilbao was a real task for any side in La Liga. They were a tough, physical side with a small number of more creative players making them a decent threat most seasons and also regularly appearing in the Europa League. Bilbao are now looking to progress that bit further and have appointed legendary Argentine boss Marcelo Bielsa to oversee a change in style. Unfortunately so far the players have struggled to adapt and find themselves near the foot of the table.

Villarreal started with a 5-0 defeat to Barcelona and have found it a bit tough to get back in their groove since that defeat. Recent efforts from Guiseppe Rossi and Nilmar have seen them returning to something like their best however and they are almost certain to again qualify for European football, although a rejuvenated Atletico Madrid will push them for the fourth Champions League spot.

Back Villarreal Draw No Bet at a huge 2.5 with William Hill.

Levante v Espanyol, Sunday 1500

A little bit of value has gone out of this bet with Levante beating Real Madrid last week and making them slightly shorter odds than I would like. They are one of the more amazing stories in La Liga as they haven’t spent any money on anyone except Felipe Caicedo (who they immediately sold) in over two years now, but they keep on surviving. Add to this, the players often go unpaid as the club is perpetually broke and it’s a wonder the motivation is there.

Espanyol have started brightly at home, but away has been a different story. They have won two from two in Barcelona, but have also lost two out of two away from home. It is this that makes me think Levante in their current confident run are good things.

Back Levante at 2.2 with Betfred.

Mersin Idman v Gaziantepspor, Saturday 1400

Last season I was following Gaziantepspor for a decent period as their home form was absolutely imperious before they faded at the tail end of the season. This season however, they have got off to a terrible start and still have zero points from three matches. They have lost two at home and one away whilst conceding six and only scoring two in reply. One defeat was against a significantly reduced Fenerbahce side compared to last season and the other two matches against the distinctly average Kayserispor and Antalyaspor.

Mersin Idman are one of the newly promoted sides, and they have started very well with two wins from three. The note of caution here is that their solitary defeat came at home, although it was against the strong Bursaspor, and they did hold out for a significant part of that match. I would back them to open their Super Lig home account with three points here.

Back Mersin Idman at 2.37 with Bet365.

Genclerbirligi v Ankaragucu, Sunday 1800

Final tip of the week is again from the Turkish Super Lig. It is in fact for similar reasons to the bet above. Genclerbirligi have started the season well with a win, a draw and a loss. They have notched four goals in those three matches whilst conceding the same amount. The defeat did come in their opening match, and they also mounted a spirited comeback to bring a 3-0 half time deficit back to 3-2 at the final whistle. They also managed a very good draw midweek against the current form team Eskisehirspor at Eski’s home ground. A few reasons to believe they are a side to watch this season.

Ankaragucu have zero points so far and have also conceded a very poor seven goals in their opening three games. One match was a 3-1 away defeat to title hopefuls Besiktas, but they have also been beaten at home by newly promoted Mersin Idman as well as getting beaten at home again midweek by a relatively poor Sivasspor side. It is not looking good even at this stage for them.

Back Genclerbirligi at 2.25 with Stan James, the price will not hold.