Four teams, three spots - Who will be relegated from the Premier League this season?

Burnley v West Ham United - Premier League
Burnley v West Ham United - Premier League
Anubhav Kaushal

With nine games to go and an additional few games in hand for some teams, the Premier League is entering its final chapter of the season. A lot is at stake for multiple teams on both spectrums of the table. At the bottom end of the table, Norwich and Watford, many would say, are bound to get relegated. Watford won 1-2 at the weekend against Southampton but with no games in hand their position seems false. That final spot is the one teams want to avoid.

Percentage chance of relegation from the Premier League, according to the Infogol model 📊⬇️

Burnley, Leeds United, Brentford, and Everton are the four teams trying to avoid the danger zone. This post will take a brief look at each team and the Premier League fixtures that form their run-in and decide which one of them will get relegated.

Note: The expected points have been calculated by seeing how many games each club has left to play home and away. Multiplying each number with average points from home and away games and adding them to their current points.

Burnley - The Premier League Stalwarts

Burnley have been a Premier League club since the 2016-17 season. Sean Dyche is one of the longest serving managers along with Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola, managing the club for almost a decade. At the moment Burnley sit 19th in the league with 21 points and two games in hand over their relegation rivals Norwich and Watford and are one point away from safety. Out of the four teams, they have scored the least number of goals with 22 but have conceded the least 38.

Six of Burnley’s remaining Premier League games come against top ten opposition, which includes a trip to Tottenham Hotspur and a visit by Manchester City. They also play against West Ham United and Wolverhampton Wanderers, who themselves are fighting for European places. The games against Everton, Norwich, and Watford will be crucial. It’s not an easy fixture list by any means.

With six home games and five away games remaining and considering average points, Burnley should finish with 30 points. These are, of course, statistics and one can never account for what happens on the pitch. Burnley have drawn a joint-top 12 games this season. If they intend to stay up, they can't afford to draw anymore games.

Leeds United - The Fallen Giants

Leeds enjoyed their first season back in the Premier League after 16 long years in their last campaign. This season was supposed to see them push for a top ten finish but things have not gone to plan. Injuries have ravaged the squad for large parts of the season. Adding Marcelo Bielsa's stubbornness and eventual dismissal, it all led to the team failing to recover. They find themselves 16th in the league, four points above the relegation zone.

Five of the club's nine fixtures will come against top ten opposition. Wolves, Chelsea, City, and Arsenal are all teams that are still fighting at the top end of the table. Watford and Brentford are the two fixtures that stand out and results in those games could prove to be the deciding factor. A trip to Brentford on the final day could be a big game, although four points separate the sides at the moment.

Jesse Marsch got his first win as manager but it did come against Norwich City. Statistically, Leeds are set to finish with 34 points this season. Unlike Sean Dyche, Marsch does not have the experience though and it will be interesting to see whether Leeds can cope with the pressure.

Brentford - The New Boys

Brentford’s first season in the Premier League has been an entertaining one so far. They started with a brilliant win against Arsenal but find themselves 15th in the league and as of now eight points clear of the relegation zone with no games in hand. On the face of it, it seems like Brentford should be safe this season but let’s take a look at their remaining fixtures in the league.

Five of Brentford’s nine remaining games come against top ten teams. Chelsea, West Ham, Tottenham, and Manchester United will not be winnable games but the latter three will be at home. Most importantly, Brentford have games against Watford, Everton, and Leeds, with the latter two the last two fixtures of the season.

Depending on what happens, they could go into those games deciding their future or the future of those teams. Based on the average points, Brentford are set to finish with 39 points for the season. At the moment, the London club have done well to create a small buffer between them and the relegation zone.

Everton - The Premier League Everpresents

Everton have never experienced anything but Premier League football since its inception, becoming one of the founding members of the competition. They now find themselves 17th in the Premier league table, above the relegation zone on goal difference. Frank Lampard has really inherited a massive problem that he has not managed to solve in recent weeks. It doesn’t get any easier from here.

0.45 - Over their last 20 @premierleague games, Everton have averaged just 0.45 points-per-game, losing 15 of those matches (W2 D3); since the start of October, this is the lowest ratio of any side in the division. Stuck.

Everton have two games in hand but those games come against Leicester, Burnley, and Newcastle. Five of their other nine fixtures will come against top ten opposition in the Premier League - West Ham, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal. They do have games against the bottom three and those three games will be crucial for their survival.

It's almost unthinkable to see Everton get relegated but it can easily happen. Statistically, Everton should finish with 32 points, although Lampard will be hoping for a few more. Keeping Everton up at this point would go down as Lampard's greatest achievement in his short career so far.

Statistically, Burnley, Norwich and Watford are set to get relegated from the Premier League. Based purely on their current form, it could be Everton or Leeds. Each has their own unique set of problems. Burnley need to score goals, Everton need to fix their defense, while Marsch is an unknown entity in the Premier league. Brentford should survive this term, thanks to their form earlier in the season.

We also think Burnley will definitely go down. It will be close and might come down to a point or two. The Clarets and Dyche have been pulling miracles off for several Premier League seasons now but based on the law of averages, this season might be one too many. What is certain is that it is going to be a very entertaining end to the Premier League season.

Edited by Shardul Sant


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