European football weekend preview

Osasuna v Levante, Sunday 1100

Osasuna made hard work of winning last Friday and beating our laying of them against newly promoted Elche. I would argue that the odds were definitely a bit on the short side. They are struggling for goals and have found their usually tough and resolute defence more leaky than in previous years. In fact, they have conceded in every match so far to have a record of played six and conceded 12. I think they’re worth another look at laying here against a better side at similar odds.

Levante have turned up some great profits for those that have followed the blog for a few seasons. To look at their side, you wouldn’t necessarily see any reason for them to get in the higher reaches of La Liga, but they seemingly always get around European football. This can be put down to great management and clever signings in my opinion. They sign players who have often previously played well, but been released for free due to injuries or a poor season, or older players deemed to be at the end of their careers. They then seem to nearly always coax out some good performances and create an all-for-one spirit. They’ve only lost one match this season and that was the 7-0 defeat at Barcelona on match day one.

Cagliari v Inter Milan, Sunday 1400

Cagliari opened the Serie A season with a win, but have not won in the four matches since. They have drawn their last three matches and have conceded in every match so far. They finished last season in mid-table and I think they’ll probably be there or thereabouts again this season. Their problem is in the fact that they concede quite a lot of goals and they seem to have done nothing about that over the summer. To be honest, this is a bet more on Inter Milan than against Cagliari though.

I have so far won on every match involving Inter Milan so far this season as they have drastically improved under new manager Walter Mazzari. This hit its peak in last weekend’s 7-0 destruction of Sassuolo in Sassuolo. It shows just how much of a difference a sensible managerial appointment can make as Mazzari has improved every club he’s been with and has seemingly done it again. He has tightened up the defence whilst rejuvenating the attack and now also has Diego Milito returning from injury and already back amongst the goals. Ricky Alvarez was hailed as a coup buy when brought in, but had then looked underweight and seemed destined to leave before Mazzari came in and relieved him of defensive responsibilities to see him probably Inter’s best player so far as a play-maker. They’ve already got an away win at Catania (always difficult) to add to the Sassuolo win and I think Mazzari’s tactics are worth backing again.

Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV, Saturday 1730

Eintracht Frankfurt had a storming return to the Bundesliga last season and managed to qualify for the Europa League. The problem for a side when this happens is that the addition of an extra competition can weigh heavy on smaller squads. A team is very unlikely to have put together a large, balanced squad for domestic and European football and a second season drop off can occur. Frankfurt should stay well clear of any problems, but three losses from six matches and two losses from two at home show that they may well face issues this season. They have actually fared better away from home so far and that comes into my thinking also.

Hamburg again look like they may be in trouble and have dispensed with manager Thorsten Fink, who had looked a little callow for the role. Looking at the talent available to him within the squad, I would say that is the right decision considering the quality of his replacement. The club have just moved to bring in ex-Holland coach Bert van Marwijk, who also has previous managerial experience in the Bundesliga from his time at Borussia Dortmund. He is also something of an expert in crisis aversion, having taken over Dortmund after their bankruptcy and Holland after yet another period of internal strife. He steadied Dortmund and guided Holland to a World Cup final. There should be an improvement in form under him and I think Frankfurt might see an early good result with European football again on the horizon.