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Liverpool have their fate in their own hands. Napoli have their fate in their own hands. Paris St. Germain have their fate in their own hands. There's one more match left for all three teams in Group C of this season's UEFA Champions League, and we're no closer to finding out who will qualify than we were when the group stage began in mid-September.
As it stands, Group C looks like this:
One would think that PSG are in pole position to go through, given that their last game is against Red Star Belgrade in Serbia. On the final day, Napoli travel to Anfield to face Liverpool.
Teams that finish level on points in the Champions League group stage are sorted by the following criteria:
- Points in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
- Goal difference in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
- Goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
- Away goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;
- Goal difference in all group matches;
- Goals scored in all group matches;
- Away goals scored in all group matches;
- Wins in all group matches;
- Away wins in all group matches;
- Disciplinary points (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
- UEFA club coefficient.
Here's what each team could face eventually, depending on their result on the final day.
#1 Napoli
If Napoli beat Liverpool at Anfield: They would end up with 12 points. They qualify as group winners.
If Napoli draw against Liverpool: They would end up with 10 points. That would be enough for the Neopolitans to qualify for the Round of 16. Neither Liverpool nor Red Star would be able to get to 10 points.
If Napoli lose at Anfield: This is where the different scenarios come in.
On the assumption that PSG get all three points in Serbia: if Napoli lose 1-0 to Liverpool, the Merseysiders would leapfrog them on the table and take second place, and qualification.
If they lose by any other one-goal margin, then they would stay ahead of Liverpool
If Liverpool win by two or more goals at Anfield, Napoli will be relegated to third place. PSG and Liverpool would qualify.
If PSG drop points against Red Star, Napoli will qualify irrespective of their result in their last match against Liverpool.
#2 Paris St. Germain
For PSG, the scenario is simple. They need to beat Red Star Belgrade to be assured of qualification for the Round of 16.
The permutations and combinations come in for the French club only if they drop points against Red Star.
If PSG draw:
A Napoli win or a draw in the other game at Anfield would see the French champions qualify for the Round of 16 as group runners-up.
If Liverpool beat Napoli, that would mean the French Champions will get dumped out of the group, on account of the tie-breaking criteria in the mini-league between them, Napoli, Liverpool.
Currently, this is how that mini-league stacks up:
If PSG lose:
A Napoli win or draw would seem them go through. But a Liverpool win by any scoreline would see the French champions having to settle for a Europa League spot.
#3 Liverpool
For the Reds, it's simple. They HAVE to beat Napoli at Anfield, and even that may not be enough, depending on the scoreline.
If PSG win, then Liverpool's qualification will depend on a win against Napoli by two goals - or a 1-0 scoreline.
That is because the Reds would be tied on 9 points with Napoli if they win. PSG would be on 11 points with a win. The head-to-head record would come into play to separate Liverpool and Napoli.
Napoli beat the Reds 1-0 in the game at the San Paolo Stadium. So, if Liverpool win 1-0 at Anfield, the head-to-head would be tied up and both teams would then be tied on goal difference as well. But the Reds would have the upper hand on the goals scored criteria, which would put them through to the knockout stage.
If Liverpool win by one goal, after having conceded one or more goals, Napoli would go through. They would have the upper hand on the head-to-head criteria based on the away goals rule.
If PSG lose, any win for the Reds against Napoli would see them through, with the group topper being decided based on the above-stated criteria between them and Napoli.
If PSG draw and Liverpool win, the Reds would top the group based on having more points in the mini-league between PSG, Napoli and themselves. All three teams would be tied on nine points, necessitating the look at the mini-league. The Reds would have six points and the other two would be tied on five.
#4 Red Star Belgrade
The Serbians are now out of the reckoning to qualify for the Round of 16. But they could still gain themselves a spot in the Europa League Round of 32.
For that to happen, there is only one combination of results to make it possible. Red Star have to beat PSG in Belgrade, and hope for Napoli to beat Liverpool at Anfield.
That would put the Serbian Champions on seven points, with Liverpool on six. Even if Liverpool draw and move to seven points, Red Star would finish 4th, because of an inferior head-to-head record against the Reds.
They beat Liverpool 2-0 in Belgrade, but lost 4-0 at Anfield. That means the Reds have an advantage in terms of the aggregate head-to-head between the two sides, and would finish above Red Star in the advent of a tie in point
