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Dustin Poirier and Nate Diaz are among the most exciting fighters in the UFC today. Both have wins against Conor McGregor, earning them attention from MMA's casual fanbase.
While they've both exhibited a recent interest in facing each other, the UFC appears to be non-committal in booking the matchup. Poirier himself claimed that the UFC did offer Diaz a clash with him, but his foe and the promotion couldn't agree on terms.
While Dustin Poirier has since set his sights on calling out Michael Chandler to no avail, and rumors of a rematch with Justin Gaethje recently arose, the matchup with Diaz still looms overhead, especially with the Stockton native expressing continued dissatisfaction with the UFC's negotiating tactics during his pursuit of a fight.
Should the fight come to fruition, Dustin Poirier will be the likely winner for reasons this list will now explore.
#5. Dustin Poirier's boxing matches up well with Diaz's
Diaz is a good MMA boxer with a well-suited arsenal to his frame. He often uses his jab and reputation as a high volume puncher to draw his opponents into recklessly firing back the moment he throws a single jab.
Eager to stop Diaz from burying them under an avalanche of strikes, opponents dart forward, hoping to interrupt him before he builds off of his jab. This, however, is exactly what Diaz intends.
He leans away, then in, using his length to counter his foes with a hard straight left after they've overextended. However, as Dustin Poirier showed against their mutual former opponent Conor McGregor, using a straight left to counter 'The Diamond' is ill-advised.
Poirier often flicks out a non-commital jab to draw out a southpaw opponent's left hand before countering them with a right hook as they come in to land their counter-straight left. Thus, Poirier is better-suited to countering Diaz with his boxing.
#4. Dustin Poirier's calf kicks
As a southpaw, Diaz fights with his right leg as his lead leg. He uses a conventional boxing stance, with much of his weight loaded onto his lead leg while leaning forward.
His lead leg is turned inward, which allows him to check inside low kicks from orthodox fighters. That's because the alignment means an orthodox fighter's rear leg is lined up with Diaz's, which is too far away to kick. For orthodox fighters, only kicks to the inside of Diaz's lead leg are possible, but he remains poorly suited to checking outside-low kicks from southpaws.
Dustin Poirier, a fellow southpaw, will present a different alignment as his rear leg is lined up with Diaz's lead leg.
As Diaz turns his lead leg inward, his calf is hyper-exposed to southpaw low kicks. Poirier, who has added calf kicks as part of his striking game, will punish Diaz with counter kicks every time Diaz steps in for a jab, just as the Louisianan did against McGregor.
This will prevent Diaz from building off his jab, opening him up to counters as his stance is momentarily destabilized.
#3. Dustin Poirier's shifting combinations
Poirier makes consistent use of shifting combinations. He steps in with a punch, then shifts stance mid-combination, ending his attack in a different stance.
His shifting combinations are well-suited to orthodox fighters, but at first glance seem to open him up to southpaw counters because of the difference in alignment and guards. Dustin Poirier, however, seems to know that his southpaw opponents will look to counter his shifting combinations with left hooks and straight lefts.
His answer to this is to tease the shift to draw out his opponent's counter-left hook or straight left, then duck under their punches for a well-timed takedown when their hips are squared and exposed. Against Diaz, who is susceptible to wrestling, Dustin Poirier can secure easy takedowns by doing so.
Once he's established the threat of his takedown, Poirier then uses this to set up an actual shifting combination when his opponent expects him to time another takedown. Against a southpaw with a vulnerability to wrestling like Diaz, Dustin Poirier can draw out his left hook and straight left for well-time takedowns.
Once Diaz is expecting a takedown, Poirier will instead commit to the shifting combination.
#2. Dustin Poirier can match Diaz's cardio
A lot is made of Diaz's cardio and how well he does in five-round fights. However, Diaz has only ever fought five rounds thrice in 33 fights. Of those five-round fights, he lost them all. His cardio, it seems, is not as great a game-changer as it's made out to be.
Poirier, by contrast, has gone five rounds twice in 36 fights, winning them all.
One of those victories came against Max Holloway, whose cardio is so great that he broke UFC records by landing 445 significant strikes in his fight against Calvin Kattar. Furthermore, Holloway has gone five rounds as many as seven times in his MMA career, yet even his record-breaking cardio was not enough against Poirier, who claimed a unanimous decision win against him.
Thus, Diaz is unlikely to be capable of overwhelming Poirier with his cardio given how well Poirier's cardio has held up in his career.
#1. Nate Diaz is no longer elite
Not since his shocking win against McGregor back in 2016 has Diaz won a fight against an opponent who is currently in the UFC.
Diaz's last win came against Anthony Pettis, who is currently signed to the PFL and is 3-3 since his loss against him. Furthermore, Diaz is no longer ranked in any of the divisions he's known for competing in, and is now three years away from his 40th birthday.
Poirier, on the other hand, is still 33 years old and the No.2-ranked lightweight in the UFC. Outside of losses to top contender and former champion Charles Oliveira and former titleholder Khabib Nurmagomedov, Poirier has not lost to anyone since his 2016 knockout loss against Michael Johnson.
