Can Julianna Peña deal with Kayla Harrison's ground game at UFC 316? Breaking down the women's bantamweight title fight

This Saturday, Kayla Harrison challenges Julianna Peña for women's bantamweight gold in the UFC 316 co-headliner. Many have already written off 'The Venezuelan Vixen,' despite her experience and status as a two-time 135-pound champion.

The strength of Harrison's ground game has convinced many that she will emerge victorious come fight night. However, is that truly the case or will Peña prove to be a more competitive foe on the mat?

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Kayla Harrison vs. Julianna Peña: A grappling analysis

As a two-time Olympic gold medalist judoka, Kayla Harrison is a far more accomplished grappler than Julianna Peña. However, superior accolades aren't always winning reasons, otherwise Bo Nickal and Henry Cejudo would have both never been outgrappled in any of their fights.

MMA is not Olympic judo or wrestling. It's MMA. Unfortunately, for Peña, Harrison has proved to be a strong grappler in the cage as well. On the ground, she is methodical but inevitable. She doesn't force transitions, nor does she chase submissions needlessly. Positional dominance is what matters most.

Harrison uses both her chest, shoulders, and hips to apply tremendous pressure on the ground, depriving her opponent of any space to initiate scrambles. She favors half-guard, as it's a difficult position for the bottom fighter to escape from, smothering them with her shoulder while maintaining tight underhooks.

Check out Kayla Harrison's ground-and-pound:

She smothers her opponent, using weight and pressure to exhaust them before transitioning. Another favorite of Harrison's is the kesa-gatame, a variation of side control, from where she can rain down elbows or set up an armbar. Though she isn't much of a submission hunter.

Harrison prefers arm triangles and rear-naked, as they're defensively less risky. If she can't finish them, she's still in a good position. The same isn't true for other submissions. She does, occasionally threaten the kimura, but has never submitted anyone with it. Its purpose is merely to force a transition.

Where Harrison thrives is with her ground-and-pound. Her elbows are monstrous, especially from full mount, and she never forgets to trap her foe's arms to prevent sweeps. If her opponent rolls over and exposes their back, she slides the hooks in and batters them with shots to the side of the head.

So, what about Peña? The 135-pound champion is chaotic on the mat. She specializes in scrambles, and never forgets to chase underhooks, whether she's on top or on the bottom. On her back, she tries desperately to create space to sweep her opponent, and will threaten the guillotine during scrambles.

Check out Julianna Peña getting submitted by Germaine de Randamie:

Pena's greatest flaw is how strongly she pursues certain scrambles. It ultimately tires her out and leads to her getting submitted by strikers like Valentina Shevchenko and Germain de Randamie, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu white belt. These habits could lead to a nightmarish scenario against Harrison.

Harrison doesn't afford her opponents any space, and has an edge in physicality. Peña may very well find herself outgunned on the mat.