UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz - Predictions and Picks

#2 Darren Till vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Will Darren Till's move to 185lbs benefit him?

Considering Darren Till – probably the UK’s most popular fighter these days with the loss of Dan Hardy and Michael Bisping – was proclaiming 2019 as ‘The year of the Gorilla’, it’s hardly been plain sailing for the Liverpool native. Till came up short in his attempt to dethrone Tyron Woodley for the UFC Welterweight title last year, but was hoping to rebound when he fought Jorge Masvidal in London in March – only to be violently knocked out in the second round.

That knockout was evidently enough to inspire him to finally make the move to 185lbs, after struggling to hit 170lbs for some time now – missing weight on two occasions in the UFC alone. If Till was expecting to have an easy assignment for his first fight in a new weight class though, well, he was painfully mistaken.

2019 hasn’t been plain sailing for Gastelum either, but it hasn’t all been bad. Sure, he missed out on a UFC Middleweight title shot back in February when Robert Whittaker was sidelined with injury, and he then lost to Israel Adesanya in his attempt to win the Interim title, but that was also the best fight of 2019 thus far and Gastelum also put Adesanya under more pressure than anyone else has been able to do thus far, actually knocking him down and hurting him on a couple of occasions.

For me this largely comes down to how well Till’s body adjusts to 185lbs. He’s certainly got the frame to be a formidable Middleweight – he’s 6’0” and has a long, 74.5” reach – and while we haven’t really seen him face a powerful wrestler yet outside of Woodley, who knocked him down rather than taking him down, his takedown defense has looked solid thus far and he’s also a tremendous pressure-striker.

Till isn’t really a similar fighter to Adesanya; the Last Stylebender has an even longer reach and prefers to attack from range, but there are some parallels when it comes to this fight with Gastelum I think. In that Adesanya fight, Kelvin Gastelum had success when he was able to get inside the taller man’s reach and land quick combinations, and he’ll need to do the same in order to get at Till I think.

Till’s style is based almost purely around pressure. His best performances have seen him use his footwork to corral his opponent against the fence where he tends to hit them with powerful combinations usually ending with his nasty left hand. He’s also adept at clinch striking, particularly with his elbows.

In his win against Stephen Thompson he also showed some skills in going head-to-head with an expert point-fighter and doing well, even if a lot of fans felt ‘Wonderboy’ deserved the decision. Against Gastelum then, it feels like his key to victory is pretty simple – he needs to avoid Gastelum’s takedown, walk him down and trap him against the fence before hitting him with heavy leather.

The problem with that? Gastelum is surprisingly quick at 185lbs and hits remarkably hard, and as we’ve seen in his last couple of fights, Till’s chin perhaps isn’t the sturdiest. Gastelum’s meanwhile appeared to be made of granite or titanium or something equally solid when you consider the punishment he survived against Adesanya.

Can Till win this fight? If he can trap Gastelum against the fence and really hurt him then perhaps, but I just don’t see him being able to do that for three straight rounds without eating something nasty from the TUF 17 winner. Till should have a bright future at 185lbs, but I don’t think this will be a good start for him.

The Pick: Gastelum via second round knockout