UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa - Predictions and Picks

It's a big show this weekend as Israel Adesanya faces Paulo Costa in the main event of UFC 253.
It's a big show this weekend as Israel Adesanya faces Paulo Costa in the main event of UFC 253.

#3 UFC Flyweight Division: Kai Kara-France vs. Brandon Royval

Brandon Royval upset Timothy Elliott in his UFC debut in May.
Brandon Royval upset Timothy Elliott in his UFC debut in May.

It’s quite rare to see the UFC allow a Flyweight fight a showcase on a major pay-per-view like this, so this one could be a breath of fresh air. However, with new UFC champ Deiveson Figueiredo set for a big title defense against Cody Garbrandt, we could be seeing the beginning of a new era at 125lbs.

Royval is very much a new fighter to the UFC. The former LFA Flyweight champ, ‘Raw Dawg’, made his UFC debut in May, choking out longtime veteran Timothy Elliott in a bit of an upset. Royval took the fight on late notice, but somehow survived the insane pace that Elliott put on in the first round to take over in the second.

Royval is clearly an excellent grappler – he’s got seven submission wins to his name – but will that be enough to get him past Kara-France, who has a tremendous ground game in his own right? It’s hard to say.

New Zealand’s Kara-France lives up to his ‘Don’t Blink’ nickname, as despite not finishing a fight since he joined the UFC in 2018, he’s put on some truly exciting wars inside the Octagon. He’s also 4-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming at the hands of high-level contender Brandon Moreno at UFC 245 last December.

Kara-France is strong in all areas but what really makes him excel is the pace he tends to put on. Simply put, he never stops moving, and his fights tend to be a blur of action, even for a 125lber. He’s been more than happy to strike and grapple with all of his opponents, and even in the Moreno fight, he was never truly out of the running.

The issue here for Kara-France is that he’s faced with a real specialist for the first time in his UFC career. The previous opponents he’s beaten have all been largely like him – solid fighters but jacks-of-all-trades, fighters willing to push a hard pace but lacking in finishing skills.

‘Raw Dawg,’ on the other hand, is absolutely a dangerous finisher on the ground. And if Kara-France’s pace can’t wilt him – and given Elliott’s couldn’t and that was a late notice fight, there’s no reason to suspect it will – then ‘Don’t Blink’ will probably be in trouble.

Finishing a fighter the caliber of Kara-France would definitely be a major feather in the cap of Royval. But then he already finished an incredibly tricky opponent in Elliott and looked great in doing so. I’m taking ‘Raw Dawg’ to submit Kara-France here, picking up his second UFC victory.

The Pick: Royval via second-round submission

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