UFC Predictions: UFC 254 - Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje predictions and picks

The biggest UFC fight of 2020 goes down this weekend as Khabib Nurmagomedov faces Justin Gaethje.
The biggest UFC fight of 2020 goes down this weekend as Khabib Nurmagomedov faces Justin Gaethje.

#2 UFC Middleweight division: Robert Whittaker vs. Jared Cannonier

Former UFC Middleweight champ Robert Whittaker returns this weekend.
Former UFC Middleweight champ Robert Whittaker returns this weekend.

Considering how easily Israel Adesanya dealt with Paulo Costa, there’s every chance that this fight's winner could be the next challenger for the UFC Middleweight title. Sure, it’d be a hard sell for Whittaker to take that fight given Adesanya also destroyed him. But with wins over Darren Till and Cannonier, it’d probably be fair game.

So will the UFC be hoping that Cannonier can pull the win out here? It’s hard to say. On one hand, he’d be the fresher challenger for the title, but on the other hand, he’d almost certainly feel like ‘challenger of the month’ fodder for Adesanya.

To be fair, that might be harsh on The Killa Gorilla. He’s been absolutely fantastic since moving down to 185lbs, reeling off three wins in a row to take his overall UFC record to 6-4. However, it’s still a little difficult to take him all that seriously as a contender.

That’s because his three wins at Middleweight all came with somewhat of a caveat. David Branch is a fantastic grappler, but he’s also always been susceptible in fights with better wrestlers and harder hitters. And UFC legend Anderson Silva was obviously years past his prime when he faced Cannonier.

That leaves Jack Hermansson, and sure, that win was a great one for The Killa Gorilla. He negated the Swede’s tricky movement and striking, never allowed him to establish his grappling, and then turned his lights out early in the second round.

I’m not too sure that he matches up well with Whittaker, however. The Reaper was taken out easily by Adesanya and also struggled with Till early in their fight, but once he’d found a rhythm against the latter, he took over to largely dominate on the feet.

The former UFC Middleweight champ has a number of attributes that make him a truly brilliant fighter. Firstly, he’s always had an underrated sense of balance and timing when it comes to being able to avoid takedowns. And that’s paid off for him in his wins over great wrestlers like Yoel Romero and Derek Brunson.

Secondly, his speed for a 185lber is phenomenal, and that allows him to catch opponents unawares with strikes they may not be expecting. Add in his incredible killer instinct when it comes to finishing opponents, and you’ve got a handful for anyone in the division.

Whittaker’s one weakness appears to be against pinpoint-accurate strikers. He’s been KO’d twice in the UFC, once against Stephen Thompson and once against Adesanya – and it’s no surprise that both men have phenomenal accuracy and timing. Whittaker appeared to struggle with his timing in both fights, became too wild, and found himself eating heavy shots.

Thankfully for him, though, Cannonier isn’t one of those precision strikers. He’s less of a sniper and more of a tank, looking to smash anything he hits. The problem for him here is that Whittaker isn’t going to provide him with a static target, nor will the Australian fear his takedown.

Add in the fact that we’ve seen Cannonier KO’d twice in the UFC before – once at Heavyweight and once at Light Heavyweight – and it’s easy to imagine a scenario where Whittaker could catch him cleanly and finish him off.

For me, the speed difference between the two will probably be too much for Cannonier to handle, making this fight reminiscent of Whittaker’s UFC wins over Brunson, Brad Tavares, and Jacare Souza. Therefore, I’ve got to go with the former UFC champ by TKO.

The Pick: Whittaker via second-round TKO

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