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This weekend sees what should be one of 2021’s biggest UFC shows go down from Las Vegas, as UFC 259 is a truly loaded card.
UFC 259 will see no less than three UFC title fights on its main card, while the show’s undercard is also filled with excellent clashes.
The Conor McGregor-headlined UFC 257 will likely end up with a bigger buyrate, but there can be no doubt that on paper at least, this is the best UFC show of 2021 to date.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya.
#1 UFC Light-Heavyweight Title: Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya
To call this a big fight would be an understatement. It’s the first champion vs. champion fight we’ve seen in the UFC since January 2019, when TJ Dillashaw dropped to Flyweight to face Henry Cejudo. But naturally, this one is more intriguing.
The UFC’s reigning Middleweight champion, Israel Adesanya is unbeaten in MMA at 20-0 and naturally, unbeaten in the UFC at 9-0. If we’re honest, nobody has even tested him yet.
Win here, and not only would Adesanya automatically become a UFC legend, but he’d probably have to be considered up there with the greatest fighters of all time.
So can ‘The Last Stylebender’ pull it off? As the old saying goes, styles make fights – and this style clash definitely seems to favour him.
That might be slightly unfair to Jan Blachowicz. The Polish fighter is definitely one of the UFC’s more unlikely champions, but it’s hard to say he hasn’t earned his title.
‘The Prince of Cieszyn’ is 8-1 in his last nine UFC fights, and he’s defeated top contenders like Corey Anderson and Luke Rockhold along the way.
More to the point, he knocked out Dominick Reyes to win the title. Many observers believed Reyes should’ve been given the nod in his title fight with Jon Jones at UFC 247 last year.
Always a hard-hitting striker, Blachowicz has developed his game slowly and steadily since arriving in the UFC back in 2014. His boxing has come on in leaps and bounds, as he now sits behind a ramrod jab and is adept at landing heavy counterpunches. And his grappling has also improved, to the point that he’s now the proud owner of a legitimate Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt.
But compared to Adesanya, it feels like Blachowicz slightly out of his depth. ‘The Last Stylebender’ is in a class of his own when it comes to striking. He’s patient, quicker than he seems, and most importantly, he’s incredibly precise with his shots.
Worryingly for any opponent that faces him, Adesanya seems to have a natural ability to work out an opponent’s weakness and capitalise on it quickly.
Robert Whittaker, Paulo Costa and Yoel Romero all bought excellent striking reputations into their fights with Adesanya. And all three were easily beaten.
The only fighter to have any real success against him was Kelvin Gastelum, and that was because his wrestling was at a good enough level to really offer a threat. Blachowicz, despite his improved grappling, simply doesn’t offer that threat.
Add in the fact that he’s likely to appear plodding and flat-footed when compared to the snake-like ‘Last Stylebender’, and this seems like a fight akin to Anderson Silva’s clashes with James Irvin and Forrest Griffin.
Blachowicz has the power to be given a puncher’s chance here, but overall, Adesanya is the spiritual successor to Silva. UFC 259 will likely see him go one step further than the Brazilian legend.
Adesanya via first round knockout – making it look surprisingly easy – is the pick.
The Pick: Adesanya via first-round TKO
#2 UFC Featherweight Title: Amanda Nunes vs. Megan Anderson
Israel Adesanya could become an all-time great with a win in UFC 259’s main event, but the champion in the co-main event – Amanda Nunes – is already there.
The greatest female fighter in UFC and MMA history, Nunes is essentially the only fighter to ever hold and continually defend two UFC titles simultaneously.
This weekend sees ‘The Lioness’ make the second defense of the UFC Featherweight crown that she won from Cris Cyborg at UFC 232. And to tell the truth, in terms of style, this might be her trickiest fight yet.
Admittedly, this fight might well be coming too soon for Anderson. The native of Australia is still very much a developing fighter.
In fact, less than three years ago she was comfortably outgrappled by Holly Holm, who is a striker by trade. 2019 saw her being submitted by Felicia Spencer, who was in turn squashed by Nunes last year.
However, for the first time, ‘The Lioness’ might well be outgunned on the feet here. Nunes hits incredibly hard – as Cyborg found out – and can knock anyone out. But in this fight, she’s giving up 4” of height and 3.5” of reach to a lifelong kickboxer who is certainly capable of sniping at her from range.
And if you consider that well, every great fighter loses at some point, there’s every chance that Anderson pulls off what would be an all-time great UFC upset here.
However, it’s difficult to imagine it actually happening. Anderson has improved on the ground, but it’s doubtful that the Australian can do a lot against the ferocity of Nunes on the mat. And ‘The Lioness’ almost certainly has superior takedowns to Holm, who tripped Anderson multiple times with ease.
Anderson undoubtedly has a puncher’s chance here, but overall this sounds too much like a stylistically good match for Nunes.
The Pick: Nunes via first-round submission
#3 UFC Bantamweight Title: Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling
Even on a card as loaded as this, this may well be the best fight on paper.
Both Yan – the reigning UFC Bantamweight champion – and Sterling are top-class fighters. But both men equally have a lot of question marks hanging over them, and in all honesty, this fight could definitely go either way.
Yan has yet to lose a fight in the UFC. ‘No Mercy’ debuted in the promotion in 2018 and has reeled off seven straight UFC wins, culminating in his beatdown of legend Jose Aldo to claim the Bantamweight crown at UFC 251.
The Russian is a master striker, primarily using a boxing game – but as Urijah Faber found out, he can kick like a mule too.
Pressure is the name of the game for Yan. He has ridiculous cardio and can push a pace that’s usually too hot for his foes to handle.
Yan's chin appears to be made of iron judging by the shots he ate from John Dodson and Jimmie Rivera, and if an opponent does land on him, he tends to fling a nasty combination right back.
Judging by what we’ve seen thus far, nobody in the UFC’s 135lbs division is capable of outstriking him. But what about grappling? Well, to tell the truth we know basically nothing about his abilities there.
We saw him pound on Aldo from the top position, but in all honesty the Brazilian was already badly hurt by that stage. In reality, Yan hasn’t faced a top class wrestler yet – and that’s what he’ll be faced with this weekend.
Sterling came into the UFC in 2014 and was pushed as a potential Bantamweight version of Jon Jones. And it’s easy to see why.
‘The Funk Master’ is a top class athlete, with explosive power and speed. Like Jones, he’s long and lanky for his weight class (he’ll hold a 4” reach advantage over Yan). And like Jones, he was a high-level collegiate wrestler prior to his MMA career.
But early on at least, it didn’t look like Sterling would reach similar heights. His grappling was always dangerous, but his striking seemed to lag behind and he struggled in longer fights, particularly when he couldn’t get an opponent down.
That changed at some point around 2018. Since then, Sterling’s striking has improved in leaps and bounds, as he seems to have learned how to use it to set up his takedowns – and use the threat of his takedowns in the other direction.
That’s led him to five straight wins, including a submission victory over current top contender Cory Sandhagen at UFC 250.
Basically then, this fight could go either way. Yan is the better striker and so if he can keep the fight standing, he should be able to win. But if Sterling gets him down – particularly if he takes his back – then ‘No Mercy’ is likely toast.
It’s tough to call, but given we know more about Sterling’s striking than we do Yan’s grappling, I’m going with the challenger.
The Pick: Sterling via third-round submission
#4 UFC 259: Main Card
Picks in bold
UFC Lightweight division: Islam Makhachev vs. Drew Dober
UFC Light-Heavyweight division: Thiago Santos vs. Aleksandar Rakic
#5 UFC 259: Preliminary Card
Picks in bold
UFC Bantamweight division: Dominick Cruz vs. Casey Kenney
UFC Bantamweight division: Song Yadong vs. Kyler Phillips
UFC Flyweight division: Joseph Benavidez vs. Askar Askarov
UFC Flyweight division: Rogerio Bontorin vs. Kai Kara-France
UFC Strawweight division: Livinha Souza vs. Amanda Lemos
UFC Flyweight division: Tim Elliott vs. Jordan Espinosa
UFC Light-Heavyweight division: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Carlos Ulberg
UFC Welterweight division: Sean Brady vs. Jake Matthews
UFC Lightweight division: Uros Medic vs. Aalon Cruz
UFC Bantamweight division: Mario Bautista vs. Trevin Jones
