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This weekend sees the UFC head to Abu Dhabi for what promises to be one of the biggest events of 2022.
UFC 280: Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev not only features a huge bout for the vacant lightweight title, but has a bantamweight title co-headliner as well as numerous other intriguing fights.
With that considered, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 280: Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev.
#1. UFC lightweight title: Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev
To say this is a huge UFC lightweight title fight is an understatement. Not only does it pit the two consensus top 155lbers in the world against one another, it’s probably the closest thing we’re going to get right now to a fight between Charles Oliveira and legendary former champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, the mentor of Islam Makhachev.
Realistically, Oliveira should still be the titleholder right now. He was stripped of the title after missing weight in controversial fashion for his defense against Justin Gaethje earlier this year, but then went on to produce a classic showing, knocking ‘The Highlight’ down and choking him out inside a round.
Oliveira is a unique case in that right now, he’s arguably the best offensive fighter in the entire UFC. Not only does he possess the most venomous submission game ever seen in the octagon, with a ludicrous 16 tapouts to his name, but he now carries brutal knockout power, too.
However, Oliveira has been beaten before – on eight occasions in fact – and he’s also been stopped on numerous occasions. More to the point, he hasn’t fought a wrestler the caliber of Makhachev in a long time.
The big question mark on Makhachev is his ability to defeat a true elite-level opponent. Despite dismantling solid fighters like Drew Dober, Dan Hooker and Bobby Green, he hasn’t really beaten one of the lightweight division’s top-ranked stars.
The same cannot be said for Oliveira, who has dispatched three former titleholders in Gaethje, Dustin Poirier and Tony Ferguson, as well as former Bellator MMA champ Michael Chandler.
With that said, though, Makhachev hasn’t just beaten his last ten foes, he’s made it look easy. Like his mentor Khabib, the Dagestani possesses supreme wrestling skills and seems to be able to plant any opponent on the ground.
Once he’s got them down, he either pounds them into dust, or works to secure a submission, usually favoring chokes or attacks to the arm.
Makhachev can strike and does hold knockout power, as we saw when he beat Gleison Tibau by KO in 2018, but given that he’ll be giving up 4” of reach to Oliveira in this bout, striking with him may not be the best idea.
The issue for the Dagestani, then, is that if he takes ‘Do Bronx’ down, he’ll be heading into the Brazilian’s wheelhouse. Can Makhachev’s strong top game work on a submission artist as skilled as Oliveira? That’s the million dollar question.
Overall, this fight is nearly impossible to pick, but while it could definitely go either way, it’s hard to bet against the fighter who has been knocking off elite-level fighters for the best part of three years now. The pick, therefore, is Oliveira via submission.
The Pick: Oliveira via third round submission
#2. UFC bantamweight title: Aljamain Sterling vs. TJ Dillashaw
Like the headline bout at UFC 280, this fight is an absolutely outstanding title fight between two of the best fighters on the planet.
It’s probably fair to suggest that reigning bantamweight kingpin Aljamain Sterling still isn’t receiving the plaudits he deserves. Sure, he won his title in controversial fashion when Petr Yan was disqualified for an illegal knee, but then he clearly outpointed the Russian in their rematch.
More importantly, ‘Funk Master’ also holds impressive wins over the likes of Pedro Munhoz and Renan Barao, and made beating Cory Sandhagen look easy when he dispatched him with a first round choke in 2020.
However, whether he can overcome the challenge of TJ Dillashaw is another thing entirely. Technically speaking, former champion Dillashaw never actually lost his title inside the octagon.
Instead, after losing to Henry Cejudo in an ill-fated attempt to claim the flyweight title, he found himself stripped of his title and suspended for two years following a positive test for the notorious banned substance EPO.
Dillashaw returned in 2021, outpointing Sandhagen in a close fight, and while Sterling has accused him of still using performance enhancers, there’s been no concrete proof of that.
On paper at least, it could be argued that this fight favors the challenger. Dillashaw is undoubtedly the more proven striker, as he possesses a brutal combination-based kickboxing game and has knocked out the likes of Barao and Cody Garbrandt during his octagon tenure.
More importantly, he’s also a tremendous wrestler with a highly underrated grappling game if a fight does hit the mat. In fact, three of his career wins have come via submission.
However, there are a couple of things that should mean Sterling is the favorite here. ‘The Funk Master’ fought and beat Yan – arguably a superior striker to Dillashaw – in April, while the challenger has not fought since his win over Sandhagen last July.
That could mean that Dillashaw comes into this bout rusty, and while he didn’t show too many issues with a long layoff against Sandhagen, he also wasn’t coming off an injury there.
More to the point, though, Sterling will be the most dangerous grappler Dillashaw has fought in a long time, and if he takes an opponent’s back, they’re highly likely to end up being choked out.
‘Funk Master’ is unlikely to outstrike Dillashaw as Dominick Cruz did, then, but there’s every chance that he could drag the challenger to the ground, particularly if his knee isn’t perfect following the injury.
This is a tricky fight to pick and Dillashaw has more ways to win, but right now it’s impossible to count Sterling out.
The Pick: Sterling via fourth round submission
#3. UFC 280: The Main Card
In a huge bantamweight fight, former titleholder Petr Yan faces off with Sean O’Malley. After much talk of him being the best prospect in the division, this fight marks O’Malley’s first real elite-level test. His last attempt at stepping up ended in disaster, as opponent Pedro Munhoz suffered an errant eye poke – so will this one go better for ‘Sugar’?
In all honesty, it’s hard to see it. O’Malley has shown excellent striking skills in his octagon tenure, displaying great footwork, timing and power, but ‘No Mercy’ is on another level entirely, is capable of chaining brutal combinations together and never slows down.
Given the power that Yan possesses, it’s simply hard to imagine this fight ending in success for the prospect, so the pick is ‘No Mercy’ via second round KO.
In a lightweight bout, Beneil Dariush takes on Mateusz Gamrot. Dariush hasn’t fought since his May 2021 win over Tony Ferguson, but the Iranian grappler is on the best run of his career right now, riding a seven-fight win streak and looking more dangerous with his strikes than ever before.
Gamrot has looked excellent in his own right since his debut, though, winning four of five bouts and most recently outpointing Arman Tsarukyan.
Dariush has the edge in experience here and probably possesses better skills, too, but given his layoff, the fact that he’s now 33 years old, and the fact that he’s struggled with explosive opponents before, makes this bout a worrying one for him.
The pick, therefore, is Gamrot via decision in a mild upset.
Finally, Katlyn Chookagian faces Manon Fiorot in a flyweight clash. This one should be fascinating, as Chookagian’s jab-heavy style hasn’t won her many plaudits from an excitement point of view, but she’s been hugely effective, with her only losses coming to champion Valentina Shevchenko and heavy hitter Jessica Andrade.
In the form of Fiorot, though, she might be in trouble. The Frenchwoman came into the UFC in 2020 with a reputation as a serious kickboxer, and thus far she’s lived up to the hype, taking out four opponents, including former title challenger Jennifer Maia.
This one should come down to whether Fiorot has the striking skills to get inside Chookagian’s range and hurt her, and the fact that Andrade was able to do just that should be concerning for ‘Blonde Fighter’. The pick is Fiorot via first-round TKO.
#4. UFC 280: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC welterweight bout: Belal Muhammad vs. Sean Brady
UFC middleweight bout: Makhmud Muradov vs. Caio Borralho
UFC light-heavyweight bout: Nikita Krylov vs. Volkan Oezdemir
UFC lightweight bout: Magomed Mustafaev vs. Yamato Nishikawa
UFC featherweight bout: Zubaira Tukhugov vs. Lucas Almeida
UFC welterweight bout: Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
UFC middleweight bout: Arman Petrosyan vs. AJ Dobson
UFC flyweight bout: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Malcolm Godron
UFC bantamweight bout: Karol Rosa vs. Lina Lansberg
