UFC Predictions: UFC 281: Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira

This weekend sees the UFC head to New York City’s famed Madison Square Garden for one of the most loaded shows of 2022.

UFC 281 not only features a huge middleweight title bout in the headliner but also a strawweight title fight, alongside a clash of two of the most exciting lightweights in the UFC.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 281: Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira.

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#1. UFC middleweight title: Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira

Can Israel Adesanya avenge his two kickboxing losses to Alex Pereira this weekend?

The story of Israel Adesanya’s reign as UFC middleweight champion has been a simple one. Outside of the man he took the title from, Robert Whittaker, he’s been so far ahead of all of his competition that things have quickly begun to feel stale.

In his rematch with Whittaker earlier this year, ‘The Last Stylebender’ proved to be slightly better than his foe. Against the likes of Paulo Costa, Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier, though, he looked flawless.

He’s largely cleaned out the upper echelon of the middleweight division, meaning that the promotion has almost been forced to fast-track Alex Pereira into a title shot. So the question is, is ‘Poatan’ ready?

The former Glory kickboxing champion has looked incredible in his brief octagon tenure so far. He turned the lights out on Andreas Michailidis with a flying knee in his debut, comfortably outstruck Bruno Silva, and then bamboozled Sean Strickland – who was on a six-fight win streak – with his famed left hook.

Of course, the Brazilian also holds two wins over Adesanya in the kickboxing ring, one via knockout.

However, ‘Poatan’ has just seven MMA bouts to his name. Adesanya has more than that in the UFC alone. There are also plenty of questions still to be answered about Pereira. How does he fare on the ground? Does he have takedown defense? What about his gas tank?

The argument for him winning this one, though, is that against Adesanya – almost a pure striker – he shouldn’t necessarily need a top-class ground game. It’s unlikely that ‘The Last Stylebender’ will even want to clinch.

The big X-factor in this fight could be the octagon itself. Pereira essentially lives and dies by the ability to land his crushing left hook. Basically every shot he throws is to set that lethal weapon up. Against a lesser striker like Strickland, he made that look easy.

Against a skilled striker like Adesanya, adept at using angles and footwork to keep his distance, it will be trickier. ‘The Last Stylebender’ has shown the ability to pressure and swarm Pereira in their kickboxing bouts. Adesanya might just want to make it a chess match and simply outpoint his foe.

Adesanya has already shown he doesn’t necessarily care about putting on an exciting fight as long as he wins. The risk in going for a decision victory, of course, is that over five rounds, Pereira will have plenty of opportunities to land that left hook.

Overall, Adesanya ought to be the favorite here purely because of his superior octagon experience and the fact that he's a tremendous defensive striker.

‘Poatan’ should be considered about as live an underdog as it gets, and nobody should be shocked if he does win, but this fight is probably a little too early for him.

The Pick: Adesanya via unanimous decision

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#2. UFC strawweight title: Carla Esparza vs. Weili Zhang

Carla Esparza will be hoping to continue her winning streak when she defends her strawweight title against Weili Zhang

To say that this strawweight title bout is flying under the radar would be a massive understatement. It was always going to struggle for any attention being underneath a big Israel Adesanya fight, but with UFC 281 also featuring Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler, it’s really being ignored.

With that said, it should hardly be a surprise given the way in which Carla Esparza won the title back in May. Her fight with Rose Namajunas was uneventful. 'The Cookie Monster’ basically won the title due to the fact that she did slightly more than her foe, who seemed to be completely passive for reasons unknown.

So can she hold onto the title against former titleholder Weili Zhang? Sure, ‘Magnum’ suffered two losses to Namajunas in title bouts. But the last time we saw Zhang, she faceplanted the legendary Joanna Jedrzejczyk with a vicious spinning back fist.

In terms of how these two match up, the result should come down to a simple question: can Esparza take Zhang down? If she can do that then she’s got a good chance of winning. ‘Magnum’ is decent on the ground, but Esparza is a monster from the top, both in terms of her control and her submission skills.

However, while ‘The Cookie Monster’ is an excellent wrestler, she has struggled to take opponents down before. That's largely because her striking isn’t quite good enough to set up her takedown attempts. She’s 5’1” and only possesses a 61” reach which makes it difficult for her to stay long and out of the pocket.

She’s not at a huge disadvantage in that department against Zhang, who is 5’4” with a reach of 63”, but ‘Magnum’ is a far better striker overall. The Chinese fighter also carries some of the most dangerous knockout power in the division.

Esparza has beaten some good strikers in her current run of six wins; Alexa Grasso, Michelle Waterson, Marina Rodriguez, and Yan Xiaonan all rank amongst the best female strikers in the UFC right now.

However, none of those women possess the brutal power of Zhang, and more to the point, Esparza struggled at times against the boxing of Rodriguez and Grasso in particular.

When you add in the fact that ‘The Cookie Monster’ isn’t likely to finish Zhang on the ground, thus giving the Chinese fighter much more time to land a killer blow over five rounds, it’s hard not to imagine another title switch in this one.

The Pick: Zhang via second round TKO

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#3. UFC 281: The Main Card

Dustin Poirier faces Michael Chandler in what could be an instant classic on this weekend's main card

Naturally, all of the attention on this weekend’s undercard will be on the lightweight clash between Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler. This fight sees two of the most exciting fighters on the UFC roster facing off. More to the point, with Islam Makhachev now holding the title at 155lbs, the winner could easily be in line for a title shot.

Both men have a similar style – they prefer to pressure their opponents and land big, brutal punches. While Chandler is probably the better wrestler, it feels unlikely that he’ll shoot in on ‘The Diamond’.

This fight does feel a lot like Poirier’s bout against another elite wrestler in Justin Gaethje back in 2018. Gaethje looked to land his big shots on Poirier, but found himself forced onto the back foot by the pressure game of ‘The Diamond’.

From there, Poirier’s footwork and boxing skills allowed him to cut through his opponent's offense to land huge combinations, eventually putting Gaethje away.

Poirier has some of the best boxing in the UFC and it's unlikely that he'll get roughed up on the ground by Michael Chandler.

The Pick: Poirier via second-round TKO.

In a bantamweight fight, the legendary Frankie Edgar will step into the octagon for the final time to face off against the unheralded Chris Gutierrez. Edgar is coming off a pair of bad knockout losses, but he’ll hoping to ride into the sunset. Gutierrez, while riding a lengthy seven-fight unbeaten run, doesn’t carry the same danger as either Marlon Vera or Cory Sandhagen.

It won’t be easy for ‘The Answer’, as his durability appears to be thoroughly shot, and Gutierrez does have the finishing ability. But overall, this looks like a better matchup for Edgar than his last two. The pick is Edgar via decision.

Finally, Claudio Puelles takes on Dan Hooker in a lightweight clash. Hooker hasn’t won since 2021 and is 1-4 in his last five. His war with Dustin Poirier seems to have derailed his career. However, Hooker should still offer Puelles his trickiest test to date, as ‘The Prince of Peru’ has yet to face a truly elite foe.

However, the TUF: Latin America veteran has shown dangerous skills – particularly with his leglocks. This one could go either way, but the pick is Puelles via submission.

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#4. UFC 281: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC lightweight bout: Brad Riddell vs. Renato Moicano

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Dominick Reyes vs. Ryan Spann

UFC flyweight bout: Molly McCann vs. Erin Blanchfield

UFC middleweight bout: Andre Petroski vs. Wellington Turman

UFC lightweight bout: Matt Frevola vs. Ottman Azaitar

UFC strawweight bout: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Silvana Gomez Juarez

UFC featherweight bout: Michael Trizano vs. Choi Seung Woo

UFC bantamweight bout: Julio Arce vs. Montel Jackson

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Carlos Ulberg vs. Nicolae Negumereanu