UFC Predictions: UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane

The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for their second and final pay-per-view of October next weekend. In the headliner, the heavyweight title is on the line.

UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane will mark the first undisputed heavyweight title fight in almost a year, while the strawweight title is on the line in the co-headliner.

This should be an excellent show and will be well worth watching.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane.

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#1. UFC heavyweight title: Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane

After suffering for what felt like forever under the reign of Jon Jones, the UFC's heavyweight division will get a much-needed reboot in Abu Dhabi.

Interim champion Tom Aspinall, who won that title back in late 2023 and even defended it in mid-2024 despite Jones supposedly being active, is now officially the undisputed champion. This fight, against former interim champ Ciryl Gane, will be his first full defense.

So, can Aspinall start his reign with a bang, or will he fall at the first hurdle?

On paper at least, this fight ought to favor the Brit. Not only has he only lost a single fight in the octagon - when he blew his knee out in his first fight with Curtis Blaydes - but stylistically, he matches very well with Gane.

'Bon Gamin' is a kickboxing monster with a lot of power, a huge frame with a long reach, and plenty of technique and experience.

However, he's also struggled with faster strikers before - Tai Tuivasa had him in trouble in their fight - and he's been exposed badly on the ground, most notably by Jones, but also by Francis Ngannou, not exactly a great grappler.

Worryingly for the French fighter, Aspinall is not only just as big as him - although he'll still be giving up a little bit of reach - but he's scarily quick, particularly on the feet. In fact, his speed has often taken his foes by surprise.

To add to that, the Brit is an excellent grappler, as we saw him submit Alexander Volkov and Andrei Arlovski with relative ease. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Aspinall may be a more dangerous grappler than he is a striker.

Realistically, given the ease in which Jones dealt with Gane on the ground - submitting him inside a round - and how comfortably Ngannou was able to control him there, Aspinall's best bet may be to hunt for a takedown early on.

Even if he can't get that, though, he's a much quicker striker than Gane, and could definitely put him in trouble with a fast combo on the feet too.

There are two questions around Aspinall. Firstly, he will be coming off a very long layoff, as he hasn't fought since July 2024. Will he be rusty? It's definitely possible, although it is worth noting that Gane hasn't fought since December in his own right and didn't look great in that fight against Volkov.

Secondly, we still haven't seen Aspinall in any trouble - although judging by how easily he absorbed a shot from huge hitter Sergei Pavlovich, that may be because he's also blessed with an iron chin. At the end of the day, though, anyone can be knocked out, and Gane does hit hard.

Despite that, it's hard to go against Aspinall here. He's got a point to prove, he's far superior to Gane in the Frenchman's worst area, and he has a history of finishing opponents quickly. There's no reason to expect anything else here, really.

The Pick: Aspinall via first round submission

#2. UFC strawweight title: Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba

This fight is another good example of the UFC's change in approach when it comes to title fights.

A year ago, this bout would've likely seen Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba doing battle for an interim title, waiting for undisputed strawweight champ Weili Zhang to return following her challenge for the flyweight crown.

Now, though, Zhang has already been forced to relinquish her title before going after Valentina Shevchenko. Essentially, then, a new era will dawn for the 115-pound division in Abu Dhabi - but will it come under Dern or Jandiroba?

The most telling thing about this fight, of course, is the fact that these two women have met before, back in December 2020.

Interestingly enough, despite both women having reputations based on their grappling, that fight was largely contested on the feet, with Dern just about getting the better of things en route to a decision win.

Since then, Jandiroba has probably been on the better run. She's won six of her last seven bouts, with her most impressive win being over Yan Xiaonan, who was thoroughly outgrappled.

Dern, meanwhile, has won five of her last nine since her initial win over Jandiroba. She's also been impressive, though, beating the likes of Amanda Ribas and Angela Hill.

Weirdly, however, there doesn't seem to be much point in comparing opponents here. Ribas beat Jandiroba but easily fell to Dern, while Dern was beaten by Amanda Lemos, Marina Rodriguez and Xiaonan, all of whom lost to Jandiroba.

Instead, it's probably smarter to take that initial bout between the two as a starting point. After all, despite nearly five years passing, neither woman has truly changed the way in which they fight. Both are still willing, if limited strikers with exceptional ground games.

However, the fact is that Dern was - and still is - the better grappler. In fact, she's the most decorated female grappler the UFC has ever seen, and while her Brazilian jiu-jitsu hasn't always worked in the octagon, it's worth noting that nobody has outgrappled her, only outstruck her.

Given Jandiroba was unable to really do that the first time around, it's hard to imagine anything really changing here. It's unlikely that we'll see a finish, but assuming Dern is in shape, she should have enough to become the new champ.

The Pick: Dern via decision

#3. UFC 321: The Main Card

In a major bantamweight fight, Umar Nurmagomedov takes on Mario Bautista. Both of these men are ranked in the top 10, with Nurmagomedov at No.2 and Bautista at No.8. A win here would likely net Bautista the next title shot at 135 pounds, so can he do it?

In all honesty, it's doubtful. While Bautista has beaten some strong fighters in the past few years, including Patchy Mix and Jose Aldo, everything he does well - his powerful wrestling and solid striking - is done better by Nurmagomedov.

When you also consider that Nurmagomedov will want to send a message after losing to Merab Dvalishvili in his last fight, it's hard to imagine him falling here. The pick, then, is Nurmagomedov via decision.

At heavyweight, Alexander Volkov faces Jailton Almeida. This fight feels like a clash of a man on his way up against one on the way down.

Almeida has been fantastic throughout his octagon run outside of one loss to Curtis Blaydes. Last time we saw him, he wrecked Sergei Spivac in a great showing. Volkov, meanwhile, was unfortunate to lose to Ciryl Gane, but that fight was nearly a year ago, and 'Drago' will turn 37 the day after this event.

In terms of styles, Almeida will undoubtedly need to find a way to get inside the massive reach of Volkov if he wants to win, but the key could be his ground game. 'Malhadinho' is a monster from top position, and historically - against Blaydes and Tom Aspinall - Volkov hasn't been great from the bottom. With that in mind, the pick is Almeida via TKO.

Finally, Aleksandar Rakic squares off with Azamat Murzakanov in a light-heavyweight clash. Rakic is still ranked at No.7 in the division, but remarkably, 'The Rocket' has lost his last three in a row and hasn't won now since March 2021.

Murzakanov, meanwhile, is still unbeaten at 15-0, with five of those wins coming in the octagon. However, 'The Professional' has not fought a truly proven top-level fighter, with his best win probably being Dustin Jacoby.

This one should depend on where Rakic is right now. At his best, he's got the skills to outstrike Murzakanov with relative ease. However, it's been so long since he last won now that it's hard to pick him.

Murzakanov, on the other hand, probably feels unstoppable right now, and if he can land something heavy, it's easy to imagine him pulling this off. This is a tight one to call, but the pick is Murzakanov via KO.

#4. UFC 321: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC lightweight bout: Ludovit Klein vs. Mateusz Rebecki

UFC middleweight bout: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Park Jun Yong

UFC lightweight bout: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo

UFC featherweight bout: Nathaniel Wood vs. Jose Miguel Delgado

UFC heavyweight bout: Chris Barnett vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab

UFC flyweight bout: Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo

UFC strawweight bout: Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki Inoue

UFC heavyweight bout: Valter Walker vs. Louie Sutherland

About the author

Scott is a veteran MMA writer with over two decades of experience, including his ongoing tenure in Sportskeeda, which began seven years ago. He has written over 3000 pieces for the organization, while also covering football. Before joining Sportskeeda, Scott wrote articles for websites like The Oratory and Inside Pulse MMA.

Scott has a degree in history, which drives his research skills and helps him compile accurate information. His long stint in the field helps Scott provide a clear take on important topics, such as the criticism of promotions regarding fighter pay. While he feels fighters deserve a bigger revenue share, he doesn’t want MMA to suffer with purse-split issues.

Scott’s work has been previously reshared by the former UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman. He uses credible sources, such as the UFC’s official website, during the writing process.

His dedication to MMA writing won him the Feature Writer of the Month award for Sportskeeda in November 2021.

Outside of work, Scott likes to go to the gym, walk his dog, and travel.

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