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The UFC makes its debut on the ABC network in the US this weekend, as former UFC Featherweight champion Max Holloway faces Calvin Kattar in a major main event on Abu Dhabi's Fight Island.
The show is the first of 2021 for the UFC, and while all the hype is on next weekend’s UFC 257, this is a strong card in its own way.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar.
#1 UFC Featherweight Division: Max Holloway vs. Calvin Kattar
This Featherweight main event is a pretty big deal for both men in terms of UFC title contention. Having lost his UFC Featherweight title to Alexander Volkanovski, Holloway fought just once in 2020 and failed to regain the gold in a rematch.
If he wants a third meeting with Alexander the Great – or indeed, a rematch with Brian Ortega, who looks set to face Volkanovski next – then Blessed absolutely needs to beat Kattar here.
For Kattar, meanwhile, Holloway marks his toughest test in the UFC. He’s on a two-fight win streak, but it’s almost an unwritten rule that the easiest way to gain a UFC title shot is to beat a former champion. Win here, and The Boston Finisher would probably fight for the gold later in 2021.
For me, though, this is a fight that massively favors Holloway. That’s not to play down the skills and accomplishments of Kattar. He’s undoubtedly one of the UFC’s best 145lbers right now. However, styles make fights, and the styles here seem to favor the Hawaiian.
Kattar is an excellent boxing-based striker. He arguably has the best hands in the UFC’s Featherweight division, and when he has an opponent hurt, he lives up to that Boston Finisher nickname.
We saw that when he destroyed Jeremy Stephens in May, but also when he KO’d the likes of Ricardo Lamas and Shane Burgos in previous UFC fights. And interestingly, he reportedly has a 3” reach advantage over Holloway.
However, Kattar has also been picked apart by more well-rounded strikers. For instance, Renato Moicano used leg kicks to chop Kattar down, while Zabit Magomedsharipov mixed up his offense enough to throw the Bostonian off his gameplan entirely.
And it’s arguable that no striker in the UFC Featherweight division – not even Volkanovski – has the ability to chain combinations together quite as well as Holloway. Blessed can open up with his kicks, he can land punches from strange, unexpected angles, and he’ll comfortably be the most skilled kickboxer Kattar has ever faced.
The Hawaiian is also ridiculously tough, too. Concerns about his ability to absorb punishment were raised in 2019. But the truth is that we’ve only seen him truly hurt in a fight by Dustin Poirier – a much harder hitter than anyone in the UFC’s Featherweight division.
Add in the fact that Kattar is somewhat of a slow starter – his win over Burgos saw him come from behind, and he never really got going until the third round against Magomedsharipov – and this seems like a step too far for him.
Can Holloway become the first man to stop Kattar by strikes? I’m not so sure, but I suspect Blessed will open up such a lead on the Bostonian that even a late comeback from Kattar won’t be able to overcome him.
The Pick: Holloway via unanimous decision
#2 UFC Welterweight Division: Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown
Well, it’s hard not to be a little frustrated by this matchmaking. If you rewind, say, six years, this would’ve been an absolute dream match between two of the UFC’s best – and most aggressive – Welterweights. It could even have been seen as a title eliminator.
In 2021, though? Unfortunately, both Condit and Brown are miles past their prime, and so the winner is more likely to be the man who can weather punishment the best. With Condit being 36 years old and Brown 40 years old, even that’s a bit of a question mark.
Brown initially hung up his UFC gloves in 2017 after a final win over Diego Sanchez, but surprisingly returned in 2019. UFC 245 saw him knock out the equally past-his-prime Ben Saunders, but his only UFC fight of 2020 saw him brutally taken out by hot prospect Miguel Baeza.
It was the kind of loss that probably should’ve made The Immortal reconsider his future. But as we all know, MMA is a tricky game to get out of.
Condit, meanwhile, had a much more successful 2020 than Brown. Initially retiring from the UFC in 2016, The Natural Born Killer returned in 2017 but kept on losing and found himself on a five-fight slide at the start of last year.
However, he turned back the clock – sort of – and out-pointed UFC veteran Court McGee in October. It wasn’t a vintage showing from Condit, but he did display the kind of skills that got him to the top of the UFC all those years ago – crisp combination striking, dangerous grappling, and a strong cardio base.
So who’s got more left in the tank then? I’m leaning towards Condit, and not only because he won a fight in 2020. Essentially, even during his recent slide, The Natural Born Killer didn’t look like a brittle fighter.
Sure, he lost five in a row, but in most of those losses, his oldest weakness – a lack of takedown defense – cost him dearly. He was never as susceptible to submissions in his prime as he is now, but then Brown isn’t a submission specialist.
The Immortal, on the other hand, does look like the kind of fighter who can no longer weather the punishment that he once could. For me, Condit still has enough about him to catch Brown with something nasty. And if he can do that, I think he’ll end up with his hand raised in somewhat of a sad fight.
The Pick: Condit via second-round TKO
#3 The Main Card: UFC on ABC card
The rest of Saturday’s main card features three more fights, with two in the UFC Welterweight division and the other one in the UFC Middleweight division.
In the Welterweight division, Santiago Ponzinibbio returns to face off with Li Jingliang. Argentina’s Ponzinibbio was looking like a UFC title contender when he last fought, knocking out Neil Magny. ut that was over two years ago. Injuries have kept him out since, so can he return with a bang?
It won’t be easy. Li is a huge 170lber who has nine UFC wins to his name. He’s capable of grounding and wearing an opponent down – hence the Leech nickname – but his striking has also improved tremendously over the years.
Ponzinibbio, however, is a truly deadly striker with insane killer instinct. A lack of really explosive athleticism has held him back in the UFC at times, but he can hurt his opponents from practically anywhere. He’s incredibly durable, and if he gets an opponent hurt, they’re usually done.
Li will likely get some early success here just because of Gente Boa suffering from cage rust. But overall, I feel like Ponzinibbio is the better fighter, and I think he’ll claim his first UFC win for two years here, probably by third-round knockout.
Also, at Welterweight, Joaquin Buckley takes on Alessio Di Chirico. After going viral with his spinning kick knockout in 2020 and following that with his second UFC win, this is a big step up for Buckley. Di Chirico isn’t a UFC title contender by any means, and in fact, he’s on a three-fight slide. However, he has far more experience at this level than Buckley, and he’s never been knocked out before.
Despite that, I’m going with Buckley here. Di Chirico is a decent jack-of-all-trades, but I don’t think he’s as good an athlete as New Mansa, and all the momentum is with Buckley too. Given his hard-hitting style – nine wins by KO and two of them in the UFC – I’m going to take Buckley to turn the Italian’s lights out in the second round.
Finally, in the UFC Middleweight division, Punahele Soriano faces Dusko Todorovic in a clash of unbeaten prospects. This is a really tricky fight to call as both men have looked excellent in their careers to date and picked up UFC debut wins by KO in 2020.
It’s a tricky one to pick as both men have yet to lose and clearly carry a lot of power in their strikes, but I’m slightly favoring Todorovic. Not only does he seem less wild than Soriano when he’s attacking – with more head movement and measured punches – but he seems slightly more well-rounded, and he’s proven against better opponents, too.
Prior to arriving in the UFC, for instance, he defeated Michel Pereira.
With this all considered, the pick is Todorovic via second-round KO.
The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card picks
Picks in bold
UFC Middleweight division: Phil Hawes vs. Nassourdine Imavov
UFC Bantamweight division: Wu Yanan vs. Joselyne Edwards
UFC Middleweight division: Omari Akhmedov vs. Tom Breese
UFC Heavyweight division: Carlos Felipe vs. Justin Tafa
UFC Welterweight division: David Zawada vs. Ramazan Emeev
UFC Bantamweight division: Sarah Moras vs. Vanessa Melo
UFC Featherweight division: Jacob Kilburn vs. Austin Lingo
