UFC Predictions for UFC Fight Night: Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall

This weekend sees the UFC return to the UK for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic for what looks to be a fun Fight Night card.

UFC Fight Night: Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall not only features a number of the best fighters produced by the UK, it should also see plenty of great action.

With a number of fighters looking to climb the ladder in their respective weight classes, we could see some huge moves this weekend, as well as some sick finishes, hopefully.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall.

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#1. UFC heavyweight division: Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall

Can Tom Aspinall make the step up to the elite level at heavyweight this weekend?

This fascinating heavyweight bout is a classic piece of booking from the UFC, pitting one of the division’s hottest prospects against arguably the best gatekeeper out there. If Tom Aspinall can get past Alexander Volkov, then he could be fighting for a title shot next time out. So can he do it?

Thus far into his career with the UFC, Aspinall has looked genuinely excellent. The Liverpool-based big man was initially branded a British version of Frank Mir when he arrived in the octagon for the first time in the summer of 2020. Since then, his striking, rather than his grappling, has been his go-to game.

He knocked out Jake Collier and Alan Baudot in his first two bouts. While he took out Andrei Arlovski with a rear-naked choke, that submission was set up with a knockdown. Most recently, he destroyed Sergey Spivak with a brutal finish, sealing his third performance of the night bonus award.

Essentially, Aspinall is a heavy-handed, skilled boxer who also has a slick ground game to fall back on, something that hasn't been seen on the big stage as yet.

The big question here is how he’ll deal with the length and reach of Volkov, who stands about 2” taller than the Brit and holds a sizeable reach advantage.

‘Drago’ has been in the UFC now for over five years. While he’s never quite reached a title shot – falling at the last hurdle to Derrick Lewis, Curtis Blaydes and Ciryl Gane – he’s beaten every other opponent he’s faced and has only been finished once.

The big knock on Volkov is usually his perceived dull style, as he does have a tendency to simply sit behind his jab and pick his foes apart. On the flip side, his knockouts of UFC vets Fabricio Werdum and Alistair Overeem were both mightily impressive.

However, he may have problems here. Aspinall isn’t quite at as much of a reach disadvantage as most of Volkov’s opponents. While he’s not as educated a striker as 'The Reem', for example, he’s probably got quicker hands than anyone the Russian has faced in recent years.

Add in the fact that Volkov has a porous takedown defense, as well as the fact that Aspinall will be a huge crowd favorite with his fellow UK natives, and this should be a fight that goes in favor of the prospect.

The Pick: Aspinall via third-round TKO

#2. UFC featherweight division: Arnold Allen vs. Dan Hooker

Highly ranked featherweight Arnold Allen features on this weekend's main card

In a huge UFC featherweight bout that’s probably as good as this weekend's headliner, Arnold Allen takes on Dan Hooker.

While he isn’t as well-known as the likes of Paddy Pimblett and Darren Till, it’s arguable that Allen is the best UK-based fighter in the UFC right now. He’s 8-0 in the octagon and is ranked at No.7 at 145 pounds. Overall, technical skill is Allen’s best attribute as he has been training with Firas Zahabi for years and rarely makes errors in his fights.

The Ipswich native essentially jabbed and boxed his way to wins over the likes of Gilbert Melendez and Sodiq Yusuff, despite their formidable reputation and heavy hands. In the only fight he appeared to be losing, he came from behind to choke out Mads Burnell.

This clash has the potential to be a tricky one for ‘Almighty’, as Hooker has more experience in the octagon against far better opponents. 'The Hangman' holds impressive wins over fighters such as Ross Pearson, Paul Felder and Al Iaquinta, and will also hold a 5” reach advantage.

At his best, Hooker is an iron-chinned fighter who can pick opponents apart from distance. He's also a very dangerous counter-striker, particularly when it comes to throwing knees at an incoming foe.

However, there will be question marks over how he’ll handle the drop to 145 pounds. He may also be past his prime after taking some horrendous damage over the years.

The beating he suffered at the hands of Edson Barboza, for instance, had the potential to change his career entirely, while he was almost knocked unconscious by Michael Chandler in their 2021 clash.

It’s a close one to call, but the pick is Allen via decision in what should be a breakout performance from him.

The Pick: Allen via decision

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#3. UFC lightweight division: Paddy Pimblett vs. Kazula Vargas

There is considerable hype around prospect Paddy Pimblett right now

When he made his octagon debut back in September, Paddy Pimblett did so as probably the most talked-about UK-based prospect in UFC history. Sure enough, ‘The Baddy’ delivered on the hype by knocking out Luigi Vendramini in the first round, although it wasn’t without some considerable effort.

It’s probably safe to say that this upcoming lightweight bout with Rodrigo Vargas isn’t quite the step up to the elite level that some fans would’ve expected for Pimblett. To be fair, his debut didn’t really warrant such a move.

After all, the Liverpool native was tagged badly by Vendramini on more than one occasion. Realistically, only his iron chin and strong will allowed him to come back and win the bout.

So can he beat Mexico’s Vargas, who has more octagon experience than him? This may actually not turn out to be the squash in favor of Pimblett that many people are expecting.

Vargas is a consummate finisher, with 10 of his 12 wins coming via knockout or submission. More importantly, he’s only been finished once in his career in turn, suffering a tapout defeat back in 2013.

In the octagon, he’s looked pretty solid, falling to a decision against Alex da Silva Coelho before knocking out Brok Weaver – albeit with an illegal knee – and then winning a decision over Rong Zhu. Essentially, the Mexican is an explosive and aggressive striker, which should mean this bout produces fireworks, regardless of who wins.

However, it’s unlikely that the promotion would look to derail a prospect as hot as Pimblett just yet. So, however dangerous Vargas seems, he’s likely to be a beatable opponent for ‘The Baddy’.

Vargas may well look to come in and take Pimblett's head off - figuring that if Vendramini could come close to knocking him out, he can finish the job. However, the styles simply don't match well for him.

Most notably, Pimblett is an excellent grappler. When you consider that Coelho’s win over Vargas came primarily on the ground, it seems likely that ‘The Baddy’ has a clear-cut path to victory.

The Pick: Pimblett via first-round submission

#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

Welterweight grappling star Gunnar Nelson returns to action this weekend for the first time since 2019

In a heavyweight clash, Shamil Abdurakhimov welcomes Sergei Pavlovich back to the octagon. Pavlovich has not fought since October 2019 thanks to some injuries and visa issues, while Abdurakhimov has now lost his last two bouts in a row.

Overall, if he hasn’t lost anything during his time on the shelf, this should be a favorable match for Pavlovich. He’s got brutally heavy hands and thanks to the fact that he’s not the biggest heavyweight, is surprisingly fast.

Abdurakhimov, in contrast, is much more plodding. While he’s dangerous if he can get an opponent to the ground, it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to avoid Pavlovich’s big punches. Pavlovich via KO is the pick.

At light heavyweight, Nikita Krylov faces Paul "Bearjew" Craig. This one should be filled with wild scrambles, as both men are highly aggressive grapplers who don’t exactly have the best defensive skills in the division. It could come down to which man makes the first mistake. Given that the Scot is on a five-fight unbeaten run, the pick is Craig via submission.

Finally, Gunnar Nelson returns for his first bout in over two years, facing Takashi Sato in the welterweight division. The book is essentially written on ‘Gunni’ now. A fantastic grappler with a tricky striking style, he can be beaten, but only by fighters who can either overpower him or lull him into a less offensive style.

Sato, despite holding two decent UFC wins, does not appear to be one of those fighters, as he’s more of an explosive striker than anything else, something that should play into Nelson’s hands. The pick is Nelson via submission.

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#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

Lightweight: Jai Herbert vs. Ilia Topuria

Flyweight: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Cody Durden

Featherweight: Mike Grundy vs. Makwan Amirkhani

Women's flyweight: Luana Carolina vs. Molly McCann

Bantamweight: Jack Shore vs. Timur Valiev

Women's strawweight bout: Cory McKenna vs. Elise Reed

Bantamweight: Nathaniel Wood vs. Vince Morales