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This weekend sees the UFC return to the Las Vegas APEX for another Fight Night event. While the card looks better than last weekend’s show, it’s still not the strongest.
UFC Fight Night: Amanda Lemos vs. Jessica Andrade features a big strawweight fight in the headliner, with a mix of veterans and prospects competing elsewhere in the event. Hopefully, this weekend’s fights deliver some better action in the octagon than last weekend’s show did, making this one at least watchable overall.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Amanda Lemos vs. Jessica Andrade.
#1. UFC strawweight division: Amanda Lemos vs. Jessica Andrade
It seems like Jessica Andrade has essentially settled into a spot once held by the likes of Rich Franklin, Chad Mendes, and many others – the highest-end gatekeeper in her division.
‘Bate Estaca’ famously won the strawweight title back in 2019 with a stunning TKO of Rose Namajunas. After losing it to Weili Zhang in her first defense, she then fell to Namajunas in a non-title rematch to essentially knock her out of contention.
A move to flyweight seemed to re-energize her, but due to the thin nature of that division, she was given what was probably a premature title shot after just one fight there, and ended up being TKO’d violently by Valentina Shevchenko.
Now back at 115lbs following a win over Cynthia Calvillo in late 2021, Andrade will be hoping to turn back the charge of fellow Brazilian Amanda Lemos – so can she do it?
At the age of 34, it’s slightly tricky to consider Lemos a prospect as such, but in reality, she isn’t all that experienced, holding a record of 11-1-1. She has, however, been on an excellent run in the octagon – going 5-1 overall and winning her last five bouts, three by stoppage.
However, it’s safe to say that the Brazilian is still a developing fighter overall. She doesn’t yet look like a completely natural striker, although she’s clearly got serious punching power, as evidenced by her TKO win over Livinha Souza last year. Her wrestling isn’t watertight even if her submission skills look good.
How does she match with Andrade? To be honest, probably not well. ‘Bate Estaca’ is obviously limited in terms of her technical ability on the feet and she isn’t great off her back, but it’s hard to imagine Lemos putting her there.
Given that only truly technically gifted strikers like Shevchenko, Namajunas and Joanna Jedrzejczyk – as well as the powerful Zhang – have been able to outstrike Andrade, for Lemos to do so will mean her fighting on a level she hasn’t suggested she’s capable of before.
More likely, we’ll see ‘Bate Estaca’ use her hand speed and brute power to blitz Lemos early, putting her away before the end of the second round.
The Pick: Andrade via second round TKO
#2. UFC lightweight division: Clay Guida vs. Claudio Puelles
On the face of it, this is a curious choice for a co-headline bout. It pits one of the longest standing veterans on the UFC’s roster in Clay Guida against a fighter not usually recognized as a prospect of any kind in Claudio Puelles.
However, beneath the surface, the booking actually makes more sense than one might think. Puelles has quietly put together a winning streak of four fights in the lightweight division since suffering a loss in his octagon debut back in 2016, and so he’s probably due a step-up of sorts.
Guida is past his prime, of course, as he’s been with the promotion since 2006 and is now 40 years old. Nevertheless, he is coming off a strong win over Leonardo Santos and he should definitely provide a tricky test for Puelles, whose wins have largely come against lower-level opponents.
Like most of the fighters produced by TUF: Latin America, Puelles is all about the largely flashy, but wild, offense. He’s willing to go for low-percentage submissions, with two of his octagon wins coming via kneebar, and he’s also a decent striker, even if his chin hasn’t always looked the best.
Based on what we’ve seen of him so far, then, he might stand a decent chance of defeating Guida in this one. Despite his hyperactive nature, ‘The Carpenter’ isn’t the most dynamic fighter on offense, preferring to spam takedowns and ground-and-pound than anything else, and his submissions tend to be more spontaneous than anything else.
Essentially, it’s likely that Guida will be able to take Puelles down. Whether he can control him, let alone avoid his crazy submission attacks and sweep attempts, is another thing entirely, particularly as he’s not close to being as durable as he once was.
Overall, then, Guida will probably be favored here as he’s got miles more experience than his Peruvian opponent, but unless he’s able to really ground and control Puelles – or lull him into one of those odd fights that’s more a dancing contest than anything else – then it’s likely that he’ll be caught with something nasty.
With that in mind, the pick is Puelles via first-round submission.
The Pick: Puelles via first round submission
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a heavyweight bout, Tanner Boser faces Alexandr Romanov, who is taking the fight on about a month’s notice. A lot could come down to whether ‘King Kong’ is fully prepared. Boser has surprisingly fast hands for a big guy and can crack, but he’s also proven to be susceptible to takedowns, and Romanov has powerful grappling and brutal ground-and-pound from the top.
Overall, Boser’s striking might give him an advantage on the feet, but he doesn’t possess much of a height and reach advantage on Romanov, and so it’s likely that ‘King Kong’ will take him down and punish him. The pick is Romanov via TKO.
At featherweight, Lando Vannata takes on Charles Jourdain in what could be a wild and exciting fight to watch. Both men love to strike and throw all kinds of wild shots, and both men are relatively durable, too.
Of the two men, it’s arguable that Jourdain has more power in his punches and is the more dangerous overall; his finishes of Doo Ho Choi and Marcelo Rojo, for instance, were both pretty brutal. However, the slightly larger Vannata appears to be the slicker fighter, and so the pick is ‘Groovy’ via a close decision.
In a flyweight bout, Maycee Barber takes on Montana De La Rosa. Once considered the best prospect in the world at 125lbs, the bloom is off Barber’s rose somewhat at this point following her losses to Roxanne Modafferi and Alexa Grasso.
However, ‘The Future’ should be closer to her best form now as she’s two years down the line from a serious knee injury, and more to the point, this is a good match for her as De La Rosa is technically sound. However, she lacks the power and athleticism of her opponent.
De La Rosa might test Barber early, but the pick is almost certainly ‘The Future’ by TKO, probably in the second round.
Finally in a lightweight clash, Steve Garcia squares off with Damir Hadzovic. Quite how this bout has made the main card is anyone’s guess, but based on what we’ve seen of these two before, it’s likely they’ll simply embark on a brawl until one man goes down. It’s a tough fight to pick as both men are relatively durable, but due to his experience, the pick is Hadzovic via decision.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC flyweight division: Manel Kape vs. Su Mudaerji
UFC welterweight division: Louis Cosce vs. Preston Parsons
UFC welterweight division: Dwight Grant vs. Sergey Kahndozhko
UFC light-heavyweight division: Tyson Pedro vs. Ike Villanueva
UFC bantamweight division: Qileng Aori vs. Cameron Else
UFC light-heavyweight division: Marcin Prachnio vs. Philipe Lins
UFC welterweight division: Dean Barry vs. Mike Jackson
UFC middleweight division: Jordan Wright vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
