UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus

This weekend sees the final UFC event of 2021, as the promotion heads back to its Las Vegas base for UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus.

This UFC Fight Night looks like a pretty strong card overall, with some excellent matches and some dangerous contenders all in action.

So with plenty to pique the interest of viewers, this should be a solid, if perhaps not spectacular, way for the promotion to sign off 2021 with.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus.

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#1. UFC heavyweight division: Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus

Heavy handed striker Derrick Lewis is back in action this weekend

Following his loss to Ciryl Gane at UFC 265 in August, it’s probably safe to say that Derrick Lewis’ hopes of becoming UFC heavyweight champion are now long gone.

However, ‘The Black Beast’ is still one of the most dangerous fighters in the division and with this booking, it seems like the UFC intends to turn him into a high-level gatekeeper. Beat Lewis and a fighter might be worthy of heading into title contention.

So can Chris Daukaus be that fighter or will he become another victim of Lewis’ brutal punching power?

Daukaus made his UFC debut last August to very little fanfare, but since then, he’s followed in the footsteps of fighters like Roy Nelson and Mark Hunt in terms of his skills belying his poor physical shape. Sure, Daukaus isn’t ripped or muscular, but he’s surprisingly quick for a man of his size, he’s got good technical strikes and he hits hard. That's evidenced by the fact that all four of his UFC wins have come via KO or TKO.

The native of Philadelphia has not been fighting scrubs, either, as his last two wins have come over top-15-ranked Aleksei Oleinik and Shamil Abdurakhimov.

This is an intriguing fight for a number of reasons. Firstly, Lewis, for all of his dangerous power, has never been the most durable fighter in the UFC’s heavyweight division. ‘The Black Beast’ suffered a knockout loss at the hands of Gane in August, but he’s also been stopped previously by the likes of Hunt and Shawn Jordan. Even when he doesn’t lose, it seems like he gets hurt in all of his fights.

However, despite this, Daukaus can’t be expected to run through him. Despite his wins over Oleinik and Abdurakhimov being impressive, it’s hard to shake off the idea that he’s only beaten plodding foes, making him look much faster than he might actually be.

Lewis, on the other hand, is deceptively quick for a big man. More to the point, he’ll be by far the most hard-hitting opponent that Daukaus has faced in his MMA career.

Daukaus could prove to be a genuine contender and might take Lewis out, but it’s hard not to side with the more proven fighter here, particularly as Daukaus won’t be used to fighting someone as fast. So the pick is Lewis via KO.

The Pick: Lewis via first round KO

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#2. UFC welterweight division: Stephen Thompson vs. Belal Muhammad

Can Belal Muhammad make the step up to the elite level at welterweight by knocking off Stephen Thompson this weekend?

Like Derrick Lewis, Stephen Thompson is a fighter who has seen his UFC title dreams go up in flames during 2021. Had he beaten Gilbert Burns in July, there would’ve been an argument for him challenging welterweight kingpin Kamaru Usman in 2022.

However, ‘Wonderboy’ was basically outworked in every area by Burns, knocking him out of title contention and into the realm of a high-end gatekeeper. It was arguably his worst UFC showing since his debut year in the promotion.

The next fighter on his list is Belal Muhammad. So can Thompson turn him away from the elite at 170 pounds, or will ‘Remember the Name’ throw his name into the hat of potential challengers for Usman?

Prior to his loss to Burns, Thompson probably would’ve been a safe bet here. His karate-based striking had never really been figured out in the UFC, even by those fighters who beat him. Only Tyron Woodley was able to have much success grappling with him.

However, Burns was able to drive through that striking to get ‘Wonderboy’ to the clinch, where he was then able to either take him down or grind on him en route to a unanimous decision.

Muhammad, an excellent wrestler in his own right, will undoubtedly be looking to replicate that gameplan. That means the question is whether Burns was able to pull it off because he’s that good, or whether Thompson is simply slowing down.

The latter would probably be understandable. ‘Wonderboy’ is approaching his 10th year with the UFC and he’s also 38 years old. If he is slowing down, then he’s had a great innings, but he probably won’t be capable of keeping Muhammad off him this weekend.

However, if that isn’t the case, then there’s every chance he will win this fight. ‘Remember the Name’ has simply not done anything to suggest that he’s on the level of Burns, with his biggest win being over a past-his-prime Demian Maia.

It’s a hard one to pick, but given that he hasn’t absorbed too much damage over the years, it’s probably fair to bet that ‘Wonderboy’ has more left in the tank than the Burns fight suggested. Therefore, Thompson via decision is the pick.

The Pick: Thompson via unanimous decision

#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

Exciting prospect Mateusz Gamrot is in action on this weekend's main card

In a UFC strawweight bout, Amanda Lemos takes on Angela Hill. This should be a winnable fight for Lemos. She’s shown excellent technical striking and nasty power in her UFC career thus far, picking up a total of four wins, two by KO.

Hill is still a tough out, but with three losses in her last four fights, her best days may be behind her. With that in mind, it won’t be easy for Lemos, but she should be able to win a decision here.

In the bantamweight division, veteran Raphael Assuncao takes on Ricky Simon. This will be Simon’s latest attempt to break into the elite level at 135 pounds, as he’s been turned away by Urijah Faber and Rob Font previously but is now on a three-fight win streak.

Assuncao, meanwhile, has not fought since his bad KO loss to Cody Garbrandt last year and he’s also on a three-fight skid. Can he bounce back here? It seems doubtful. He’s taken plenty of damage over the years, is now 39 years old and wasn’t that quick in his prime. Therefore, Simon by decision is the pick.

At lightweight, Mateusz Gamrot squares off with Diego Ferreira. This should be an interesting bout, as Gamrot has shown a lot of potential thus far into his UFC tenure. However, despite being on a two-fight skid, Ferreira will be his trickiest test to date.

This one should come down to whether ‘Gamer’ can prevent Ferreira from taking him down, as the Brazilian isn’t the best striker, even if he’s willing to brawl there. Overall, it feels like Gamrot is on his way up while Ferreira is on the way down, so ‘Gamer’ via TKO is the pick.

Finally, in a real battle of veterans, Cub Swanson takes on Darren Elkins in a featherweight bout. Given the experience both men possess, it’s hard to believe they’ve never faced off before.

Both men are past their prime, even if Elkins is coming off two wins, so the question is who has more left? It’s questionable, but Swanson may have the edge, as he’s the better striker and can probably keep the fight standing. Therefore, Swanson via KO is the pick.

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#4: UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

Middleweight division: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Bantamweight division: Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry

Heavyweight division: Justin Tafa vs. Harry Hunsucker

Women's flyweight division: Sijara Eubanks vs. Melissa Gatto

Featherweight division: Charles Jourdain vs. Andre Ewell

Women's bantamweight division: Raquel Pennington vs. Macy Chiasson

Heavyweight division: Don’Tale Mayes vs. Josh Parisian

Lightweight division: Matt Sayles vs. Jordan Leavitt