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This weekend sees the UFC return to its Las Vegas APEX for UFC Fight Night: Edson Barboza vs. Giga Chikadze.
As well as a great featherweight main event, this UFC Fight Night card also features the finals of the 29th season of The Ultimate Fighter.
Interest in TUF is not what it once was, but this still looks like a decent card overall, albeit one seriously lacking in name value.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Edson Barboza vs. Giga Chikadze.
#1. UFC featherweight division: Edson Barboza vs. Giga Chikadze
This featherweight clash promises to be a striking fans’ dream match, as both men love nothing more than to swing heavy leather at their opponents until they fall. It’s also a massive opportunity for Giga Chikadze to really climb into the upper echelons of the division.
Naturally, Edson Barboza is the more proven of the two. He has been in the UFC now since 2010, and while he has never quite reached the very top, he’s still a highly dangerous veteran with the skills to take out any opponent.
‘Junior’ was beginning to look past his prime around a year ago, as he was on a horrendous run of just one win in five fights, even if two of those losses were razor-tight split decisions.
Since then, though, he’s won two fights impressively. In particular, his knockout win over Shane Burgos at UFC 262 was fantastic, as the Brazilian showed his trademark nasty striking but also demonstrated plenty of poise, durability and patience against a very difficult opponent.
Barboza can be beaten. He has shown a serious weakness when it comes to fighting opponents who can take him down and work him over from the top, as Khabib Nurmagomedov and Kevin Lee did. And while he looked durable against Burgos, he has been stopped by strikes three times.
This one is an interesting fight for him as it pits him against a fellow striker, but unlike Burgos, Chikadze is not really a power puncher per se.
Instead, the native of Georgia prefers to push a torrid pace, looking to overwhelm his opponents with a tornado of combination strikes, in particular his kicks.
‘The Ninja’ has beaten his last two opponents – one of which was tough veteran Cub Swanson – via stoppage, both times set up with head kicks. Whether he can do the same to Barboza, though, is another thing entirely.
At the end of the day, he has definitely looked great in the UFC thus far, but the only high-level opponent he’s ever faced is Swanson, and to tell the truth, Cub is miles past his prime and lasted just over a minute.
Barboza, on the other hand, has fought basically every great lightweight the UFC’s had over the past ten years. It’s hard to imagine Chikadze’s hyper-active attack really fazing him.
More to the point, while Barboza has been slightly outworked in previous fights – notably by Dan Ige in the eyes of the judges at least – he’s never really been undone by sheer volume. Rather, the fights that have seen him get tired have also seen an opponent cause a lot of damage to him in quick fashion.
The question, then, is whether Chikadze has enough in his arsenal to really hurt Barboza early, either taking him out or causing him to tire out down the stretch. It’s a tricky question to answer, but we just haven’t seen enough evidence that he’s capable yet.
So with that in mind, the pick is Barboza via decision.
The Pick: Barboza via unanimous decision
Check the Latest UFC Predictions Here
#2. UFC welterweight division: Kevin Lee vs. Daniel Rodriguez
To say that this is a huge fight for Kevin Lee would be an understatement. ‘The Motown Phenom’ has not fought since his March 2020 loss to Charles Oliveira – the main event of the UFC’s first behind-closed-doors show, to give a little perspective – and has not fought up at 170 lbs since 2019.
Initially, Lee was pegged to fight unbeaten prospect Sean Brady in what felt like a bit of classic UFC matchmaking – an attempt by the promotion to have a high-level prospect gain some name value by beating a former headliner.
However, in Daniel Rodriguez, Lee is faced with a slightly lesser opponent, albeit one who may be equally as dangerous.
‘D-Rod’ has been on the UFC roster since February 2020, and in that time – essentially the period Lee has been on the shelf – he’s gone 5-1 in the octagon, picking up big wins over Mike Perry and Tim Means.
Rodriguez has shown well-rounded skill, and even his lone loss - to Nicolas Dalby - was a close fight to call. For the most part, ‘D-Rod’ is an aggressive striker who loves to push the pace and force his opponents backward.
So can he do that to Lee? In all honesty, it depends on how Lee shows up after such a long time away from the UFC.
‘The Motown Phenom’ is still only 28 years old, but he’s been in his fair share of wars inside the octagon. Given that he’s now been on the UFC roster for over seven years, there’s every chance we’ve seen the best of him.
However, aside from a tight clash with Al Iaquinta in 2018, it’s also fair to say that he’s never recently been beaten by a striker. Instead, he’s found things tricky against fighters capable of turning the tables on him in grappling sequences.
Is Rodriguez capable of that? It seems doubtful based on what we’ve seen of him, and worryingly, while his takedown defense stands at 83%, he was also taken down twice by Mike Perry – a fighter with a wrestling game that doesn’t come close to Lee’s.
Rodriguez can definitely win this fight if Lee comes in flat or looking rusty, but based on what we’ve seen of both men, it’s impossible not to favor ‘The Motown Phenom.’
The Pick: Lee via second round submission
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
The main card of this show obviously has a heavy TUF flavor, with three of its six fights comprising cast members from the recent series. As a caveat, for the most part, these TUF fights are nearly impossible to predict, as fighting on short notice after living in a reality show environment is very different from training for a fight in a real camp.
In the middleweight finals, Bryan Battle takes on Gilbert Urbina. Unfortunately, Battle was actually set to fight Tresean Gore in this clash, but when Gore injured his knee, Urbina – who was knocked out by Gore in the semi-finals – stepped in.
It’s perhaps arguable that Battle was the more impressive fighter during the show’s tapings. He won both of his bouts and came from behind to defeat Andre Petroski by submission in the semi-finals. Urbina looks like a fellow grappler, so this one should be settled on the ground, and the pick is Battle in a close decision.
In the bantamweight finals, Ricky Turcios faces Brady Hiestand. It’s probably safe to say that Turcios is the more proven fighter here. A member of Team Alpha Male, he’s got more experience, has fought on Dana White’s Contender Series, and arguably looked more impressive during TUF too. Hiestand looks capable of pulling off an upset, but the pick is Turcios via decision.
In another middleweight clash of TUF cast members, Andre Petroski faces Michael Gillmore. This one looks tailor-made for Petroski, as he has more experience, a better record, and looked far more impressive on the reality show. Petroski via submission is the pick.
Finally, in a middleweight bout, Gerald Meerschaert takes on Makhmud Muradov. Meerschaert is probably best remembered as one of Khamzat Chimaev’s victims, but he’s a genuinely excellent, tough veteran with finishing skills in all areas.
However, Muradov is the kind of explosive striker that he’s always struggled with, as he looks to be faster than Meerschaert with some brutal knockout power in his strikes. Muradov via KO is the pick.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Note: Picks in bold
UFC middleweight division: Antonio Braga Neto vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
UFC middleweight division: Sam Alvey vs. Wellington Turman
UFC light-heavyweight division: Dustin Jacoby vs. Darren Stewart
UFC featherweight division: Jamall Emmers vs. Pat Sabatini
UFC bantamweight division: Mario Bautista vs. Guido Cannetti
UFC flyweight division: JJ Aldrich vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
