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The UFC is back in its Las Vegas base this weekend for another Fight Night event. Unfortunately, it isn’t the strongest card.
UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill has a thrown-together main event and little name value elsewhere, meaning fans will simply be hoping for some fun finishes.
As always, whether or not they get them will remain to be seen until the show goes down.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill.
#1. UFC strawweight bout: Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill
Initially, the plan was to have a bantamweight bout between Raquel Pennington and Irene Aldana to headline this event, and realistically, there wasn’t that much interest in that one.
However, with Aldana now pegged to face Amanda Nunes for the UFC bantamweight title in a few weeks’ time, the promotion has essentially robbed Peter to pay Paul.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill wasn’t even booked as the co-headliner of last weekend’s event, but despite that, it now sits in the main event spotlight. Is that a blessing in disguise, or a reminder that the promotion is often spread too thinly these days?
That’s a fair debate, but on the plus side, at least the clash is between two ranked fighters at 115 pounds.
It’s also a relatively simple fight to consider. Dern is probably the best pure grappler at strawweight, with tons of accolades in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and four wins in the octagon via tapout.
However, she doesn’t possess the strongest takedowns and is a bit of a crude brawler on the feet, meaning a slick kickboxer with strong takedown defense can defeat her. This contributed to her loss in 2019 to Amanda Ribas, her 2021 defeat to Marina Rodriguez, and most recently, her loss to Yan Xiaonan.
Hill, on the other hand, is basically the exact opposite to Dern. A hard-hitting kickboxer who likes to chain combinations together and work from close range, ‘Overkill’ has historically struggled when she’s been put on her back.
She’s no longer a complete fish out of water as she was in her first run with the UFC, but it’s probably fair to say that if she gets on the ground with Dern, she’ll be badly out of her depth.
The big question here, then, is whether Dern can take her down in the first place. There are a few things that suggest she will probably pull this off.
Firstly, unlike Rodriguez, Xiaonan and Ribas, Hill isn’t so strong fighting from distance. She does possess a decent reach and a jab, but a lot of her good work is done from the clinch.
That leaves her vulnerable to trips, throws or even something more spectacular like a rolling leglock, something Dern could be capable of.
More importantly, though, the fight is a five-rounder, and as Frank Mir once said before his fight with Tim Sylvia, things are bound to hit the ground at least once over five rounds.
Just like Mir, Dern is the kind of fighter who can wrap up a submission hold in an instant, particularly against a less natural grappler like ‘Overkill’. Therefore, the prediction for this one is relatively simple.
The Pick: Dern via second-round submission
#2. UFC middleweight bout: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Anthony Hernandez
While neither of these fighters are ranked in the UFC’s top 15 at 185 pounds, they’re still young enough to make an impact at some point. Given they’re also dangerous finishers, it makes sense, to an extent at least, to give them some spotlight on a thin card like this.
Of the two, Edmen Shahbazyan is definitely the more known quantity. ‘The Golden Boy’ burst onto the scene back in 2018 and reeled off four impressive wins to climb into contention.
However, three straight losses derailed his momentum badly, although in hindsight, defeats to Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson and Nassourdine Imavov aren’t bad at all. At any rate, Shahbazyan righted the ship in his last bout, stopping Dalcha Lungiambula via TKO.
Overall, ‘The Golden Boy’ doesn’t have too many weaknesses. He’s a powerful and adaptable striker, a strong wrestler, and has a solid submission game. He does have a tendency to burn himself out early and can be drawn into wild brawls, but to be fair, at the age of 25 he’s still learning.
Anthony Hernandez should be an interesting test for him. ‘Fluffy’ isn’t the athlete that Shahbazyan is, but he’s tough, durable, and won’t go down easily.
He holds an impressive pre-UFC win over the highly rated Brendan Allen and famously submitted legendary Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Rodolfo Vieira in 2021 after Vieira gassed out.
Right now, Hernandez is riding a three-fight win streak and was last seen dispatching Marc-Andre Barriault in September.
Basically, this one should come down to whether Shahbazyan can stop himself from chasing a finish early on. He’s the superior athlete, probably hits harder, and has cleaner technical skills, too. Therefore, he should be able to win.
If he gets silly and too wild, though, or blows his wad early, then ‘Fluffy’ isn’t likely to go away and will probably be able to make a grinding comeback for a late TKO or a decision.
Given ‘The Golden Boy’ does have a history with blowing his wad early, there’s a slight chance that Hernandez takes this one. However, Shahbazyan did look improved in his last bout, and at the age of 25, will probably be learning how to control himself in the octagon more.
Therefore, the pick is Shahbazyan via TKO.
The Pick: Shahbazyan via second-round TKO
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a 120-pound catchweight bout, Emily Ducote faces Lupita Godinez. A former Invicta FC strawweight champion, Ducote has solid skills in all areas and pushed Angela Hill hard in her last bout. Godinez is perhaps the more exciting fighter and a better finisher, but she’s also pretty wild and leaves herself open at times.
This one is a little tricky to pick, but the safer bet is probably Ducote via decision, even if she has to fight through a few sticky moments.
At welterweight, Andre Fialho takes on Joaquin Buckley. Given both men’s history with landing the spectacular, the hope is clearly a highlight reel KO here. So which way will it go?
Both men are coming off losses, so may have their backs to the wall, but it might also mean that they fight in a safer manner than usual. If that’s the case, then the edge will probably go to Buckley, who has slightly more experience at the top level and seems to be a little calmer under fire. The pick is ‘New Mansa’ via TKO.
In a lightweight bout, Hayisaer Maheshate takes on Viacheslav Borschchev. Both of these men have a similar history; they’re capable of the spectacular, but can also be grinded out in a dull affair if they can’t land anything too wild. With similar styles and records it’s a tough one to pick. However, Maheshate looks like the slightly superior athlete, so the pick is the Chinese fighter via decision.
Finally, veteran lightweights Carlos Diego Ferreira and Michael Johnson face off. This one should be simple; either Ferreira will take Johnson down for a submission, or ‘The Menace’ will keep things standing and piece the Brazilian up.
Johnson is always a risky pick because he’s so hit-and-miss, but then Ferreira has lost his last three fights and at the age of 38, is beginning to look cooked. The pick, therefore, is Johnson via decision.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC strawweight bout: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
UFC welterweight bout: Orion Cosce vs. Gilbert Urbina
UFC heavyweight bout: Ilir Latifi vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
UFC lightweight bout: Chase Hooper vs. Nick Fiore
UFC flyweight bout: Natalia Silva vs. Victoria Leonardo
UFC welterweight bout: Takashi Sato vs. Themba Gorimbo
