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The UFC is back at its Las Vegas base this weekend for its latest Fight Night show. After a week with no action, it’s a welcome return for the promotion.
UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Xiaonan Yan features an excellent strawweight main event, as well as a number of other intriguing bouts on tap.
With plenty of exciting fighters in action, then, this should be a show well worth catching.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Xiaonan Yan.
#1. UFC strawweight division: Mackenzie Dern vs. Xiaonan Yan
While this headliner might seem a little short on name value, it’s certainly a big bout in the 115lb division. With Mackenzie Dern currently ranked at No.5 and Yan Xiaonan No.6, an impressive win for either of these women could net them a shot at UFC strawweight queen Carla Esparza in the near future.
Of the two, it’s likely that Dern is slightly closer to that goal. Probably the best female grappler in the promotion right now, the daughter of Brazilian jiu-jitsu legend Wellington Dias has a ridiculous amount of credentials on the mat, and she’s been showing them off in the octagon since 2018.
In her early days in the promotion, Dern had some struggles as she seemed to struggle to make the strawweight limit and didn’t seem capable of picking up the other skills needed alongside her grappling to succeed in MMA.
Since then, though, she’s improved by leaps and bounds. Not only is she now in incredible shape, but her striking has improved dramatically, as have her takedowns. This has only made her submission skills even more dangerous – allowing her to tap experienced foes like Nina Nunes and Randa Markos.
Most recently, Dern overcame the challenge of perennial contender Tecia Torres. Essentially, she’s only ever lost when her opponents could prevent her from going to the ground. Even then, her 2021 fight with highly ranked contender Marina Rodriguez saw her come close to a stoppage on numerous occasions and she was tough enough to last five rounds with the Brazilian.
China’s Xiaonan also lost to Rodriguez in her last bout. Prior to that, she’d used her sniping striking style to defeat the likes of Claudia Gadelha, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Angela Hill.
Essentially, then, this should be a classic striker vs. grappler match – so who will come out on top? Unfortunately for Yan, the styles seem to favor Dern.
Put simply, the Chinese fighter just hasn’t shown all that much when she’s been grounded, something that’s happened to her on a number of occasions during her octagon career.
Sure, Dern isn’t as good a wrestler as Carla Esparza, but the jiu-jitsu ace is definitely as strong when it comes to keeping an opponent down and working them over from the top to set up a submission.
Given that Dern has become a much more effective striker in recent years, it’s likely that she’ll be able to hold her own with Yan on the feet enough to set up a takedown or a scramble. If that happens, she’s good enough to latch onto a hold and finish things off.
Things could get interesting if Yan can hurt her and tire her out in the early rounds by stopping takedowns, but the pick is Dern via submission.
The Pick: Dern via first-round submission
#2. UFC featherweight division: Sodiq Yusuff vs. Don Shainis
Initially, this fight wasn’t booked on this event at all. Sodiq Yusuff was actually scheduled to face off against Giga Chikadze in a fascinating clash at UFC Vegas 60 earlier this month. When Chikadze picked up an injury, Yusuff was moved to this card.
Rather than facing ‘Ninja’, though, ‘Super Sodiq’ has found himself paired with a UFC debutant in the form of Don Shainis. So, will the established top 15 contender find a path to victory, or can ‘Shameless’ pull off a huge upset in his first visit to the octagon?
In all honesty, it’s hard to imagine Shainis having much success here for a number of reasons. Sure, the footage of him suggests he’s a solid fighter, with heavy hands and excellent ground-and-pound, but it’s clear that he simply lacks the speed and explosiveness of Yusuff, who is almost unparalleled in that aspect.
More to the point, Yusuff has excellent takedown defense and has only really been planted on his back during scrambles in the octagon. Even then, he’s largely been able to spring back to his feet right away.
Could Shainis knock Yusuff out with the right shot? Of course, anyone can be knocked out, after all. However, if quality strikers like Arnold Allen and Sheymon Moraes couldn’t do it, it’s unlikely that ‘Shameless’ will be able to.
Add in the fact that this is the first time Shainis has ever fought on the big show – he hasn’t even appeared on Dana White’s Contender Series – and it’s easy to imagine the newcomer having some serious jitters.
Basically, this should be a chance for ‘Super Sodiq’ to really re-establish himself as a dangerous contender in this division, and it’s unlikely that he’ll let it pass him.
The Pick: Yusuff via first-round KO
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a welterweight bout, Francisco Trinaldo takes on Randy Brown. Despite turning 44 in August, Trinaldo seems to still be in his physical prime. He’s won five of his last six bouts, most recently outpointing Danny Roberts in May.
‘Massaranduba’ isn’t always the most exciting fighter to watch, but he’s powerful, has no real weaknesses, and is a dangerous finisher if he’s given the chance.
Brown is riding a three-fight win streak in his own right and he’s also going to enjoy a large reach advantage in this clash – 8” to be exact – but he’s also struggled with powerful foes before, particularly if he’s grounded. Overall this one’s close to call, but the pick is Trinaldo via TKO.
In a middleweight clash, Brendan Allen faces Krzysztof Jotko. Jotko fell from contention a while back now, with three straight losses from 2017 to 2018. However, he has actually won five of his last six fights, even if he doesn’t have a reputation for being exciting.
Overall, he’s likely to test Allen, who hasn’t quite lived up to his early promise despite winning seven bouts in the octagon. This one should come down to whether ‘All In’ can prevent Jotko from smothering him. If he can do that, then he’s definitely got the skills to finish him. It could go either way, but the pick – perhaps in hope – is Allen via TKO.
Finally, in a heavyweight bout, Ilir Latifi takes on Alexei Oleinik. This one should come down to how much Oleinik has left at the age of 45. He did submit Jared Vanderaa in his last bout, but Latifi is a far more powerful opponent who definitely has the potential to knock ‘The Boa Constrictor’ out.
Given Oleinik’s fading abilities, as well as the fact that Latifi has never been submitted in 24 fights, the pick is ‘The Sledgehammer’ via TKO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC bantamweight division: Raoni Barcelos vs. Trevin Jones
UFC strawweight division: Tabatha Ricci vs. Jessica Penne
UFC bantamweight division: John Castaneda vs. Daniel Santos
UFC bantamweight division: Leah Letson vs. Chelsea Chandler
UFC lightweight division: Joaquim Silva vs. Jesse Ronson
UFC bantamweight division: Randy Costa vs. Guido Cannetti
UFC lightweight division: Mike Davis vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
UFC light-heavyweight division: Maxim Grishin vs. Philipe Lins
