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This weekend sees the UFC return to Orlando for the first event of December, and it promises to be an intriguing one.
UFC Fight Night: Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland features a strong main card, with a number of outstanding fights across various divisions.
With a number of the fighters in action looking to climb into title contention, this should definitely be a watchable show.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland.
#1. UFC welterweight division: Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland
While the winner of this welterweight bout isn’t likely to vault themselves into title contention, it’s definitely an important one for both. Stephen Thompson is still ranked in the top 10 at 170lbs, currently sitting in No.6. While Kevin Holland isn’t currently ranked, a win over ‘Wonderboy’ would almost certainly put him there.
Of the two, Holland has been on the better form as of late. Sure, he was whitewashed by Khamzat Chimaev in a late-notice bout in October, but prior to that, he’d reeled off two successive wins as a welterweight, stopping Alex Oliveira with elbows before submitting Tim Means.
However, whether ‘Trailblazer’ has closed the hole in his game that kept him out of title contention at 185lbs – his takedown defense – largely remains unknown. Sure, Chimaev took him down, but there’s no shame in that, and thankfully for him, it’s unlikely that Thompson will even attempt to shoot on him.
One of the few remaining pure strikers in the UFC, ‘Wonderboy’ is realistically reaching the end of his storied career now. His two shots at welterweight gold came well over five years ago now, and while he remained a perennial contender for years after, his last two bouts – defeats to Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad – brought into question whether he’s still a viable gatekeeper to the top five.
At his best, Thompson’s slick footwork and movement allowed him to cut his opponents to shreds with some beautiful counter striking, and it’s not like he was beating scrubs, either. His most recent wins came over Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque, two top-10 fighters in their own right.
However, both losses saw Thompson outworked in the clinch and eventually taken down. Will Holland attempt to do the same thing? That’s debatable. He is an excellent grappler, but as was mentioned earlier, he does lack in the wrestling department somewhat.
Could ‘Trailblazer’ actually outwork ‘Wonderboy’ standing, though? That’s a fair question in its own right. He does have a massive advantage in length and reach – standing at 6’3” and boasting an 81” reach compared to 6’0” and 75” for Thompson.
Given the striking skills of ‘Wonderboy’, it’s hard to imagine Holland keeping him at the end of a jab, but catching him with a big shot is not exactly impossible, particularly as Thompson is now 39, is less durable than he once was, and isn’t as quick either.
Overall, this is a tricky fight to pick. Were both men in their primes, Thompson would probably be expected to pick Holland apart, but in what is likely the tail end of his career, whether he’s capable of that is debatable.
With that in mind, given that Holland is a dangerous fighter in all positions and he’s capable of finding finishes from strange situations, the pick – albeit a risky one – is ‘Trailblazer’ via TKO.
The Pick: Holland via fourth-round TKO
#2. UFC welterweight division: Bryan Barberena vs. Rafael dos Anjos
This weekend’s co-main event is also a welterweight bout, and like the main event, it also features a fighter returning to 170lbs after some time elsewhere.
In this instance, though, rather than moving down in weight, Rafael dos Anjos is moving back up. The last time we saw the former lightweight kingpin in action, he suffered a disappointing loss to hot prospect Rafael Fiziev and found himself stopped for the first time since 2016.
Can this move back up to 170lbs reenergise ‘RDA’? There’s a distinct possibility it could. After all, the initial reason for him moving up in 2017 was because he felt like his durability was being affected by a big weight cut.
Dos Anjos did have success as a welterweight, too, beating the likes of Robbie Lawler, Neil Magny and Kevin Lee. However, his struggles against powerful wrestlers like Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington and Leon Edwards ended up knocking him out of title contention.
Essentially, the Brazilian is a dangerous fighter in all areas, and is a consummate finisher both on the ground and on the feet. Outside of his issues with wrestlers, he doesn’t have any really notable weaknesses, assuming his chin isn’t shot.
Bryan Barberena will look to test his chin. ‘Bam Bam’ is a brawler at heart, and while he’s never been in title contention, he’s always been a tough out for any foe. Right now, he’s on the best run of his UFC career, having beaten Darian Weeks, Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler.
If dos Anjos chooses to brawl with him, then he could end up suffering the same fate. ‘RDA’ is a better technical striker, but Barberena is notoriously durable and is also willing to take hard shots in order to give them back.
However, unlike Lawler and Brown in their latter days, he’s also proven to be still technical enough to pick an opponent apart. Prior to his loss to Fiziev, in fact, he did just that to an underrated opponent in Renato Moicano.
Overall, Barberena is tough enough to make this a difficult fight for dos Anjos, but the Brazilian is the more talented fighter in all areas and ‘Bam Bam’ doesn’t have the powerful takedowns to expose his usual weakness. Therefore, the pick is ‘RDA’.
The Pick: dos Anjos via decision
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a flyweight clash, Matheus Nicolau takes on Matt Schnell. There’s an argument that these two men are two of the better 125lbers to never challenge for the UFC title, and so this should be an interesting fight.
Of the two, Schnell is perhaps the more explosive fighter. Unfortunately, ‘Danger’ can also get sloppy and leave himself wide open, both on the feet and on the ground. Given Nicolau’s durability, submission skills and strong takedowns, then, it’s likely to be a bad night for Schnell. The pick is Nicolau via submission.
In a great heavyweight clash, Tai Tuivasa throws down with Sergei Pavlovich. The winner of this one will almost certainly move into title contention in 2023, making it a legitimately huge fight, and it’s tricky to call, too.
Thus far into his UFC tenure, Pavlovich’s brick-like hands and underrated speed have allowed him to take out four of his five opponents, but Tuivasa will be the most durable foe he’s fought yet, and he can swing back heavily, too.
Pavlovich is perhaps the more technical fighter and does have the advantage of being able to take Tuivasa down, but given the Australian’s penchant for eating up punches and firing back with something nastier, the pick is ‘Bam Bam’ via TKO.
Finally, Eryk Anders meets Kyle Daukaus in a middleweight bout. Anders remains one of the more explosive athletes in this division, but he’s never really reached his potential, largely because he got pushed up the card a little too soon. ‘Ya Boi’ can still knock his opponents out, but take him down the stretch or ground him and he’s likely to come unstuck.
Daukaus is better-rounded, but it is fair to say that he lacks the explosive ability of Anders and doesn’t have the greatest chin, which makes this a dangerous fight for him. Overall, this should be winnable if he can survive the early storm that Anders is likely to bring, but it won’t be easy for him. The pick is Daukaus via decision.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC middleweight division: Jack Hermansson vs. Roman Dolidze
UFC welterweight division: Niko Price vs. Philip Rowe
UFC strawweight division: Angela Hill vs. Emily Ducote
UFC lightweight division: Scott Holtzman vs. Clay Guida
UFC lightweight division: Michael Johnson vs. Marc Diakiese
UFC featherweight division: Darren Elkins vs. Jonathan Pearce
UFC flyweight division: Tracy Cortez vs. Amanda Ribas
UFC lightweight division: Natan Levy vs. Genaro Valdez
UFC featherweight division: Marcelo Rojo vs. Francis Marshall
UFC strawweight division: Yazmin Jauregui vs. Istela Nunes
