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The UFC returns to Las Vegas this weekend for its latest Fight Night card, which features a major light heavyweight clash in the headline slot.
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill is obviously a step back from last weekend’s spectacular card, but with the TUF 30 finals also on tap, this should be a watchable enough show.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill.
#1. UFC light heavyweight division: Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill
This is a curious piece of booking from the UFC as both fighters seem to be on completely different trajectories right now. Thiago Santos has won just once in his last five trips to the octagon, while Jamahal Hill has lost just one of his six bouts there, falling to Paul Craig in June 2021.
The logic seems to be that with a win, Hill will be able to climb into title contention. However, despite Santos still sitting in the No.6 spot, at some point, a win over him simply won’t mean what it once did a couple of years ago.
So does ‘Marreta’ still have anything to offer? It’s genuinely difficult to say. He hasn’t been blown out in any of his recent losses, but it does appear that while he’s still a heavy hitter, age and miles may have caught up with him in terms of his durability, cardio and ability to explode into his strikes.
Essentially, it feels like a line can be drawn across his career – from the explosiveness he showed prior to his 2019 title bout with Jon Jones to the slowed-down version we now see following the appalling knee injury he suffered in that clash.
Hill, meanwhile, has basically been perfect since his UFC debut outside of that fight with Craig, a strange clash that saw ‘Sweet Dreams’ too willing to go to the ground with the Scotsman, resulting in him suffering a dislocated elbow.
Outside of that, he’s demonstrated a heavy-handed style largely based around his lanky build and 79” reach giving him the range to attack his foes from distance. He’s also displayed a crazy killer instinct, as his wins over Johnny Walker, Jimmy Crute and Ovince Saint Preux were all brutal.
Overall, then, given that Santos usually enjoys a reach advantage over his opponents and will actually be at a 3” disadvantage here, could ‘Marreta’ be in trouble? It seems likely. Hill is younger, quicker and more explosive, and knows that an impressive win here will elevate him into contention.
Sure, Santos could land something big and take ‘Sweet Dreams’ out in a flurry, but the truth is that we haven’t seen that version of the Brazilian in so long now that it’d be a big shock to see it suddenly re-emerge here. Hence, this could be his last headliner for some time.
The Pick: Hill via first-round TKO
#2. UFC welterweight division: Vicente Luque vs. Geoff Neal
In terms of its overall quality, there’s an argument that this is the most underrated bout that the UFC is set to put on in August. Vicente Luque is coming off a disappointing loss to Belal Muhammad, but he’s still ranked at No.6 in the welterweight rankings. More to the point, he remains one of the most deadly finishers in the game, having gone the distance just once in his 14 octagon wins.
Geoff Neal, meanwhile, has demonstrated seriously heavy hands and legs during his time with the promotion, having won six of his eight visits to the octagon. He’s finished the likes of Mike Perry and Niko Price, most recently beating Santiago Ponzinibbio,. He also holds a win over Muhammad, albeit back in 2019.
‘Handz of Steel’ is hugely explosive, has devastating finishing abilities, and shows no issue with his cardio either. The question marks over him, though, remain. His ground game is largely unproven, although he hasn’t been truly tested there yet, and he’s struggled with opponents who can catch him with combinations while avoiding his bigger shots.
How does this play into this bout? Luque definitely isn’t a Stephen Thompson-level technical striker, but he’s definitely got the skill to stay on the outside and pick at Neal, particularly given the American's heavy hands.
More to the point, ‘The Silent Assassin’ is as dangerous with strikes from close quarters – including the clinch – as he is from the outside. If he can drag Neal to the ground at any time, then ‘Handz of Steel’ will definitely be in trouble.
Add in the fact that Luque is remarkably durable, particularly in terms of absorbing strikes, and stylistically, this looks like a good fight for him. Will he pick up a finish? Neal has been stopped twice, with the most recent coming in 2017, but Luque is almost uniquely adept at finding ways to take out his foes.
Therefore, the pick is ‘The Silent Assassin’ via submission.
The Pick: Luque via third-round submission
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
This weekend’s main card is buoyed by the finals of the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter, and in the heavyweight bracket, Mohammed Usman faces Zac Pauga.
The brother of current UFC welterweight kingpin Kamaru Usman is very much like an earlier version of ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’. He’s a powerful wrestler, hits hard and throws big, but isn’t all that technical standing. However, even at the age of 33, he does look like a very dangerous prospect, with an overall record of 7-2.
Pauga, meanwhile, is a smaller fighter who usually competes at 205lbs, but ‘The Ripper’ is also unbeaten, has great technical striking and has shown plenty of poise and power during his time on the show.
Overall, Usman’s power and strength advantage should give him the edge here, but it could be close. The pick is Usman via decision.
In the women's flyweight bracket, Juliana Miller faces Brogan Walker. This one is interesting as it pits the most experienced competitor on the cast in Walker against one of the least seasoned in Miller.
Miller has shown herself to be a dangerous grappler as she looked excellent in her submission win over Katylin Neil, while Walker was unable to pick up a finish throughout her run on the reality show.
With that said, it’s not always smart to pick the flashier fighter in these kinds of bouts,. Walker’s experience, including a win over Miranda Maverick and a relatively close loss to Erin Blanchfield, should give her the advantage under the lights. Walker via decision is the pick.
In the heavyweight division, Augusto Sakai faces Sergey Spivak. This one will probably come down to whether Sakai can keep the action standing, as he’s the heavier hitter and Spivak has been knocked out before.
However, ‘The Polar Bear’ is an excellent grappler, he’s younger and if he can get foes down, he can destroy them from top position. Therefore, the pick is Spivak via TKO.
In a flyweight bout, Ariane Lipski takes on Priscila Cachoeira. Lipski has not quite lived up to her ‘Violence Queen’ nickname in the UFC just yet, but she has shown plenty of skills at times, most notably in her nasty kneebar submission of Luana Carolina.
Cachoeira has slightly more experience under her belt, but she hasn’t really displayed the kind of explosiveness that Lipski has. More to the point, she’s also struggled on the ground at times. The pick, then, is Lipski via submission.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC middleweight division: Sam Alvey vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
UFC welterweight division: Takashi Sato vs. Bryan Battle
UFC lightweight division: Terrance McKinney vs. Erick Gonzalez
UFC welterweight division: Jason Witt vs. Josh Quinlan
UFC women's strawweight division: Miranda Granger vs. Cory McKenna
UFC women's bantamweight division: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Stephanie Egger
