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The bout scheduled between Sean O'Malley and Pedro Munhoz at UFC 276 was done so with the goal of determining how high O'Malley's ceiling is as a fighter. Unfortunately, like every matchup Sean O'Malley has had against any mixed martial artist currently ranked in the top 10 of his division, the bout with Munhoz ended in controversy.
An unintentional eye poke left the Brazilian unable to continue and the fight was declared a no contest. 'Sugar' celebrated the outcome as though it were a win, though his antics didn't endear him to anyone but his loyal fanbase. Just as neutral fight fans questioned the rationale behind O'Malley's reaction to his past loss to Marlon 'Chito' Vera, they questioned the logic behind his claim that the no contest against Pedro Munhoz was a victory.
While many expected the result to perhaps lead to a rematch or a fight with a another similarly-ranked opponent, Sean O'Malley has instead been booked for a UFC 280 bout with Petr Yan, the No.1-ranked bantamweight in the UFC.
Not long after the fight's announcement, O'Malley's chances against Yan were dismissed by most fight fans. This list details five reasons why those fans might be proved wrong, and five reasons why they could be proved right.
#10. Can win: Sean O'Malley's low kicks
Sean O'Malley is one of the most varied kickers in the UFC. The effectiveness of his kicks is magnified by the fact that the current striking meta in MMA is boxing, with fighters en masse sharpening their boxing skillsets. Specifically, fighters have become better jabbers, extending their stances as they step in with the shot.
While Petr Yan isn't going to use his jab to try and keep the taller and longer O'Malley at range, he does fight from a traditional boxing stance with much of his weight loaded on his overexposed lead leg. This renders Petr Yan exceptionally vulnerable to low kicks as he neithers checks nor attempts to catch them in pursuit of takedowns.
Instead, his defense against low kicks is to switch stances, which does not bode well against O'Malley, who is also a frequent stance-switcher and a hard low kicker who routinely uses low kicks to attack foes at range.
While that is not always the case, the better a boxer the fighter is, the more exposed they are to low kicks. This is the case with Petr Yan.
#9. Can't win: Petr Yan's cardio
Despite his breadth of striking talent, Sean O'Malley is not without his weaknesses. Due to the amount of knockout power he pours into his punches and kicks, 'Sugar' typically exhausts himself in pursuit of a TKO or KO victory.
Often-times, this manifests as Sean O'Malley slowing down at some point in the second round.
Sadly, gassing out against the likes of Petr Yan is very troubling as not only does the Russian not tire, he also improves as the fight progresses, increasing his volume of strikes while growing more aggressive.
If O'Malley tires while Yan improves and ups his pace, it could lead to a troublesome outcome for 'Sugar' if he cannot earn a stoppage victory.
#8. Can win: Sean O'Malley's counter-punching
All counterpunchers search for solutions to the same problem: how to draw their opponents into their counters. The first step to doing so entails convincing their opponents to come forward into range. Against Petr Yan, O'Malley won't encounter the same problem due to the Russian's preference for coming forward.
A staple of Yan's fighting style is the application of his boxing through heavy pressure. 'No Mercy' closes the distance right from the onset of a bout.
While Sean O'Malley might not necessarily be able to disarm the former UFC bantamweight champion with his feints, he will have far more success walking Yan onto his shots due to the Russian's willingness to come forward in order to implement his primary boxing game.
#7. Can't win: Yan's superiority at close range
Although 'No Mercy' always looks to apply pressure against his foes, he doesn't do so recklessly. Compared to Kris Moutinho, who 'Sugar' punished for following him linearly, Petr Yan uses lateral movement and crisp footwork.
Against an opponent who is trying to ward off his pressure by retreating and circling, the Russian cuts off their escape angles by stepping with them.
In doing so, he ensures that he sandwiches his foes between himself and the fence. As the longer and rangier fighter, Sean O'Malley will struggle if he's backed up against the fence with Yan crowding his space. His long arms won't find the space and leverage needed for to land punches with power, while Yan's shorter arms will be of greater use in such close range.
#6. Can win: O'Malley's stance-switching
While most fans remember the first matchup between Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling at UFC 259 as a complete washout, the first two rounds were fairly competitive.
Part of this was due to Sterling's ability to fight from both southpaw and orthodox. Throughout his career, Yan has benefitted from being the one capable of switching stances in most of his bouts.
The advantage he gains from that ability is that he is the one who determines the alignment in every striking exchange. Against an orthodox opponent, he can switch to southpaw to easily align them with his power-side and dictate when his and opponent's guards are open or closed. This becomes difficult to do against opponents who are also capable of stance-switching like Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley.
By switching stances with Yan, O'Malley will deny the Russian the chance to determine the alignment of the striking exchanges, while also forcing him to readjust and make more reads than necessary when closing the distance.
#5. Can't win: Petr Yan parries kicks
A large portion of Sean O'Malley's arsenal consists of kicks. While his low kicks will likely trouble Yan due to the Russian's overexposed lead leg and poor defense against the attack, Yan possesses a formidable defense against kicks that target his midsection and head.
One of the ways in which 'No Mercy' stopped Aljamain Sterling from kicking him without end in both bouts was by parrying. Yan often parries body kicks and high kicks all the way across himself, enabling him to move himself into angles that position him towards his opponent's open side, exposing them to his counterpunches.
Against O'Malley, who frequently targets his foe's midsection with kicks, 'No Mercy' can use his chosen defense of parrying kicks — either all the way across himself or at his mid-line — and lunging in with punches to the head and body when O'Malley's kicking leg is still airborne and his stance is in a poor position for him to absorb blows.
#4. Can win: His long range
Sean O'Malley is the tallest and longest fighter in the UFC bantamweight division. Outside of Cory Sandhagen, no other fighter matches his physical dimensions.
ot only is 'Sugar' tall and long, he also makes excellent use of his reach with his jab and range. Often-times, O'Malley stands just beyond his foe's kicking range, causing them to kick ahead of themselves and expose them to his counterpunches.
When he imposes such a long range that it only benefits him as the longer fighter, his opponents are forced to work their way into punching range. While low kicks are strong weapons against O'Malley, Yan is not a prolific kicker and opts primarily to enter range behind an airtright high guard while relying on his defensive boxing.
Unfortunately, due to his shorter arms and inferior height, boxing as a means of entering range against an opponent who keeps his opponents outside of even kicking range will be a far more difficult endeavor.
#3. Can't win: Takedowns
Petr Yan is by no means a wrestler. However, in recent years, he has taken to mixing in takedowns with his striking to disrupt his opponent's rhythm.
First, 'No Mercy' imposes his boxing, using it to draw the opponent into a rhythm established only by punches, pivots, etc. Once his foes grow accustomed to his pressure boxing, Yan introduces takedowns to disrupt the rhythm he's forced his opponents to expect.
Not only will this enable him to dictate O'Malley's reactions, which 'Sugar' is unaccustomed to experiencing as he is often the one dictating his foe's reactions, but it will be facilitated by Sean O'Malley's frequent kicks. Most of Yan's takedowns come as counters. Against Sterling, he caught one of the reigning UFC bantamweight champion's kicks to secure a single-leg takedown.
Sterling, however, defended well, framing off of Yan while extending his caught leg to prevent Yan from sweeping his standing one. Yan, in turn, hooked his other arm around Sterling's ankle, inching forward by repeating the action with his other arm, lifting his foe's leg higher and higher before offsetting his balance for a trip-takedown.
If the Russian can do so against a high-level wrestler like Sterling, O'Malley will have to be wary of throwing kicks recklessly lest Yan catch one and chain it into a trip-takedown.
#2. Can win: Yan is a slow starter
The future bout between Sean O'Malley and Petr Yan is scheduled for three rounds instead of five. Historically, 'No Mercy' has been a slow starter who uses the first two rounds to make reads on his opponent's reactions to inform his chosen path as an offensive striker.
The reprecussions for doing so typically result in the Russian rendering it easier than it should be for his foes to reliably steal the first two rounds based almost solely on activity, even if he's sustaining no damage due to his airtright defensive striking.
O'Malley, who is anything but a slow starter, will be primed to capitalize on Yan's exceptionally low volume in their fight's opening rounds to outpoint him.
#1. Can't win: Thus far, O'Malley has underperformed against top competition
Sean O'Malley's career has produced enough knockouts and flashy striking displays to crowd a substantial highlight reel. Though it is to his detriment that these performances have only come against opponents who weren't and will never be ranked in the top 10 of the bantamweight division.
Every time 'Sugar' has faced a stiff test up the rankings, he's underperformed. Marlon Vera defeated him and O'Malley's uninspired effort against Pedro Munhoz ended in a no contest, with neither fighter managing to impose themselves. With that, it's possible that there's a lower limit to O'Malley's abilities inside the octagon than some think.
Petr Yan represents the rising bantamweight star's most difficult test yet, and by quite a significant margin. Given O'Malley's past struggles against top-10 bantamweights, he'll likely face similar difficulties against the former world champion.
