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Valentina Shevchenko is the reigning UFC women's flyweight champion. After defeating Taila Santos at UFC 275, 'Bullet' broke the UFC women's title defense record once held by the legendary Ronda Rousey. Throughout her career, Shevchenko has been nearly flawless, only suffering losses against Liz Carmouche [via doctor stoppage] and Amanda Nunes, the only UFC women's double champion ever.
While Valentina Shevchenko avenged her initial loss to Carmouche, the former Muay Thai champion never managed to redeem herself against 'The Lioness.' Shevchenko has faced her Brazilian rival twice. Though both bouts were close, Nunes bested her on the scorecard on both occasions.
In the years that followed, much was made of their closely-contested second matchup, with many arguing that Shevchenko might have done enough to claim victory despite the official loss on her record.
Given the sheer dominance shown by both women in their respective divisions since, fan interest in a trilogy bout has resurged. Even UFC President Dana White dismissed his past disinterest in the matchup.
With both Shevchenko and Nunes on the verge of cleaning out their divisions, a lack of competition renders a trilogy bout inevitable. While 'The Lioness' has defeated 'Bullet' twice now, Valentina Shevchenko possesses the tools necessary to defeat her longtime rival.
#5. Valentina Shevchenko's low-kick defense
Valentina Shevchenko is a counter-striker by trade, and like all counter-strikers, she operates from a range that's optimized for her unique style of engagement. She maintains a long distance that enables her to easily slide her legs out of her opponent's leg reach, causing her foes to kick ahead of themselves whenever they attempt to low kick her.
Amanda Nunes' greatest range weapons are her low kicks, which she often uses to destabilize her opponent's stance. Once her foes are forced to reset their stances, Nunes pounces on them with crisp combinations.
However, Valentina Shevchenko's low-kick defense will not only cause Nunes to kick ahead of herself and miss, but due to the amount of follow-through from Nunes' kicks, the momentum will cause her to kick herself out of stance. Thus, while she's forced to retract her kicking leg back into position, she'll be exposed to Shevchenko's counters.
#4. Shevchenko's distance management
Beyond her defense against low kicks, Valentina Shevchenko's distance management can and has proved to be a troubling aspect of her game for Nunes. The distance Shevchenko maintains is long enough that it rewards her in several key ways.
First, it forces her opponents to take additional steps forward whenever they try to close the distance against her, causing her foes to telegraph their intentions while simultaneously affording Shevchenko more time to make the necessary reads to inform her counters.
Second, by depriving Nunes of her longest weapons—her low kicks—Shevchenko will limit the Brazilian to using her punches. Although Nunes possesses a long reach, her jab and right cross are no longer than her legs, so she will overextend with her punches due to Valentina Shevchenko's distance management, exposing herself to her rival's counters.
#3. Valentina Shevchenko's neutralizing
If at any point Nunes grows frustrated with Shevchenko's unusually long range, 'Bullet' will likely pull back at the waist, causing Nunes' punches to fall just short of connecting before countering her with check hooks.
However, as the reigning flyweight queen's primary interest is defense, she might also resort to her oft-used tactics like pulling her leg away and throwing non-committal spinning back-kicks and body kicks to score points, ensuring she is rarely in position to be hit.
Once 'Bullet' conditions her opponents to this neutralizing style of engagement, she ducks under her foe's punches to secure a bodylock and inside trip when their hips are squared as they're only concerned with her striking. It worked effectively against Holly Holm at UFC on Fox 20 and will give Nunes more to think about than just her striking, preventing her from settling into a rhythm.
#2. Valentina Shevchenko is composed in the line of fire
Despite her enormous success inside the octagon, Amanda Nunes is not a fighter of otherworldly skills like Georges St-Pierre or Alexander Volkanovski. Instead, Nunes is a fighter who possesses terrifying power and strategic efficacy. As a striker, her go-to techniques involve her powerful low kicks and jab-cross combinations.
As a grappler, she exhibits serviceable takedowns and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. However, it is her punching power and reach advantage that both trouble her foes the most, as Nunes uses her length and reach well. Similar to Francis Ngannou, Nunes' punching power causes her opponents to either enter the fight fearing her blows or it freezes them the moment she lands a punch due to most fighters being unaccustomed to facing such crippling punching power.
Valentina Shevchenko is different. Not only does she mitigate Nunes' chances of landing due to her neutralizing style of engagement and distance management, but she is also calm and comfortable in the line of fire because of her ability to fight while evading most of her opponent's blows. This is further magnified by Shevchenko's experience fighting Nunes, so she is very aware of what to expect in terms of power and will not allow Nunes to dictate striking engagements.
#1. Valentina Shevchenko's cardio
The MMA world stood in shock when Julianna Peña dethroned Amanda Nunes at UFC 269. The Brazilian great was gassed out by the second round and subsequently fell victim to Peña's grit and determination. While Nunes' bout with COVID at the time was likely the culprit that time, she nevertheless has a history of struggling to manage her cardio.
Prior to her stunning loss at UFC 269, Nunes' last loss was to Cat Zingano 7 years ago. That loss was also due to Nunes' cardio failing her after she'd managed to dominate her foe in the early stages of the bout. Similarly, the competitive nature of the Brazilian's two bouts with 'Bullet' was partially due to her cardio waning in the closing rounds of the fights.
Valentina Shevchenko, on the other hand, possesses phenomenal cardio, having gone five rounds six separate times without ever tiring. By causing Nunes to overextend on her power punches while simultaneously dictating the pace of the bout, Shevchenko could cause her foe to tire and allow her superior gas tank to take over in the second half of the potential matchup.
