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NASCAR championship race: Odds, key stats, prediction, sleepers, fantasy drivers to draft

Betting favorites and fantasy sleepers for Sunday's Ford EcoBoost 400, the last race of the 2017 NASCAR season.

Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott
Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott

Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex Jr. will race for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

The rules are simple: The highest-finishing driver will win the title but that doesn't mean the other 35 drivers can't win the race. 

Truex may be the king of 1.5-mile tracks this season, but it was Harvick capturing the latest 1.5-mile win at Texas to secure a spot in the title race. Harvick also owns the best average finish (6.9) at Homestead-Miami Speedway among all active drivers. 

This is Busch's third straight trip to the Championship 4 race. In 2015, he won the Ford EcoBoost 400 to seal his first Cup Series championship. Keselowski may be pegged to finish last among the Championship 4 drivers but he won at a similar track in Atlanta earlier this season. 

Sunday's FordEcoBoost 400 is the 11th race on 1.5-mile tracks this season and the track is known for its tire wear much like the speedways at Atlanta, Chicagoland and Texas. 

Who is going to win Sunday's NASCAR race at Homestead?

Martin Truex Jr. is the favorite to win his first championship and Sunday's race and it's easy to see why. Six of Truex's seven wins this year have come on 1.5-mile tracks similar to Homestead-Miami Speedway. He owns an incredible 2.7 average finish and a 4.7 average running position this season at 1.5-mile tracks and is our pick to win the race Sunday. 

What are the Las Vegas odds for the NASCAR race at Homestead?

Race odds according to the Westgate Sportsbook: 

Martin Truex Jr. 2/1
Kyle Busch 7/2
Kevin Harvick 4/1
Kyle Larson 9/2
Brad Keselowski 10/1
Denny Hamlin 15/1
Chase Elliott 15/1
Matt Kenseth 20/1
Jimmie Johnson 25/1
Ryan Blaney 30/1
Erik Jones 40/1
Joey Logano 40/1
Clint Bowyer 80/1
Kurt Busch 80/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 100/1
Daniel Suarez 100/1
Kasey Kahne 200/1
Austin Dillon 300/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300/1
Ryan Newman 300/1
Paul Menard 500/1
Trevor Bayne 500/1
Ty Dillon 500/1
Chris Buescher 1000/1
Aric Almirola 1000/1
AJ Allmendinger 1000/1
Danica Patrick 1000/1
Michael McDowell 5000/1
Field (all others) 1000/1

Which drivers should I pick for fantasy NASCAR at Homestead?

Chase Elliott led 42 laps at Chicagoland en route to a second-place finish and owns a 5.0 average finish over the past six 1.5-mile tracks. 

Dale Earnhardt Jr. wants to go out with a bang in his final race. While he's not going to win, Earnhardt should earn a good finish. Earnhardt enters the race weekend running as well as he has all season. He has finished in the top 11 in six out of his last seven races, including three seventh-place showings and a 10th-place result last Sunday at Phoenix.

Kyle Larson often calls Homestead-Miami Speedway his best track. He finished runner-up at Homestead last year after leading a race-high 132 laps and placed fifth at the 1.5-mile track in 2015. Larson has had a breakout season in 2017, setting career highs in wins (four), top fives (14), top 10s (19) and average finish (13.6) but has had some bad luck down the stretch this season. 

Michael McDowell has been a staple driver for us to use on DraftKings in order to save salary. 

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