What if AEW tanks?

All Elite Wrestling has been a central topic for gossip and conjecture among hardcore wrestling fans for months now. The new company has only gathered steam with the announcement of top free agent signings like Chris Jericho, Pac, Pentagon, Rey Fenix, and Kenny Omega. Spurred on by the success of All In, Double or Nothing may have more buzz behind it than any wrestling event this year, besides WrestleMania.

All of these developments have fans wondering if AEW may pose a legitimate threat to WWE as a rival promotion. Sure, there’s a lot left to be seen in terms of AEW’s TV situation and if Cody Rhodes and company can recapture the magic of All In for another show, much less a regularly aired TV product, but fans and pundits seem generally optimistic.

There’s always the possibility that things don’t pan out for the new promotion, though. Maybe the product winds up not appealing to fans, maybe the big signings trail off, or maybe the company’s seemingly sound financial foundation falls out from underneath them. This article considers what may happen if AEW tanks.

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#5 Chris Jericho returns to the WWE fold

Chris Jericho would still be welcomed back to WWE.

Chris Jericho is the biggest signing attached to All Elite Wrestling at this point, but also holds the unique distinction of having done right by WWE in the process. On an episode of his podcast dedicated to his journey to AEW, Jericho discussed his business relationship with WWE, and what he describes as a friendship with Vince McMahon. That includes having given McMahon the heads up as to his plans before officially signing.

There may be some hard feelings about the choice Jericho made, but he nonetheless is one of the most famous wrestlers in the world and still remarkably capable in the ring on the mic for someone his age. While WWE may not throw as much money at Jericho, or be as inclined to feature him prominently if AEW tanks, he nonetheless remains one of the few guys who can feel confident he’d still have a job waiting for him with WWE when he wants to go back.

#4 Cody Rhodes, Kenny Omega, and The Young Bucks in limbo

Not all of AEW's big signings would have a home in WWE if AEW fails.

Whereas an established WWE main event level talent like Chris Jericho can rest assured that he’ll have a spot in WWE, the same cannot be said for other top names associated with AEW. Kenny Omega is a top talent but doesn’t necessarily fit the WWE mold, and choosing AEW over WWE may not help his cause. A similar logic applies to The Young Bucks. Of course, no one may have more to lose if AEW fails—at least in terms of his WWE prospects—than Cody Rhodes.

Rhodes’s family lineage and talent meant that, had he never left the company, he probably could have remained on the roster for most of his career. His stock quite arguably rose based on his success wrestling for smaller promotions and the threat of his business acumen after All In. But in choosing to refuse a new deal from WWE, and instead start a promotion that looks a lot like competition, Rhodes may well have burned a bridge. The fact that WWE brought back Jeff Jarrett after the way he left WWE and after launching Impact Wrestling says that no one is necessarily blacklisted forever. Rhodes may, however, lose out on getting to work in WWE for the rest of his prime if AEW fails.

#3 Pac to New Japan

There's little reason to think Pac or WWE would want to work with each other again. But what about New Japan?

AEW has recruited strong enough talent that it’s reasonable to think many of them might wind up with WWE if AEW doesn’t work out. Pac—the wrestler formerly known as Neville—represents an exception. He absolutely has the talent to work in WWE, as demonstrated by his successful NXT and 205 Live runs. However, he also went through one of the messier divorces from WWE in recent memory, and it’s doubtful that either side will be interested in working with the other for at least a period of years.

If AEW flops, the odds are that Pac will look to other top tier promotions. In particular, when he first left WWE, rumors had him signing with New Japan. Indeed, heading in that direction feels like a natural progression for him, particularly given his hard-hitting, but technical style, not to mention his aerial capabilities.

#2 Ring of Honor benefits

ROH may be the biggest winner of AEW doesn't succeed.

While wrestling pundits are focused on the idea of AEW positioning itself as a competitor to WWE, it will realistically take some time before even an extremely well-resourced startup can meaningfully challenge the top wrestling promotion in the world.

AEW seems to be leapfrogging most of the second tier national promotions in terms of notoriety, buzz, and ability to sign major free agents. If the company does not stand the test of time, however, we can expect to see a bit of a resurgence from Ring of Honor.

While Impact Wrestling has often garnered a bigger spotlight than ROH, and New Japan has persistently built its profile among US fans, ROH has been the steady standard bearer for smaller promotions, known for great wrestling, and boasting a history of launching top tier stars like Daniel Bryan, CM Punk, Seth Rollins, Samoa Joe, and Kevin Owens.

In terms of both securing talent, and being the top promotion left standing, ROH could do quite nicely for itself if AEW does not succeed.

#1 WWE recruiting and retention gets a bit less aggressive

WWE purportedly went to great lengths to keep The Revival happy after they asked for their release.

Around the time WWE started broadcasting NXT on the WWE Network and running TakeOver specials, a shift occurred that saw the company open the floodgates in terms of recruiting talent from smaller promotions. and from abroad. Those efforts have notably intensified since buzz started growing around AEW. That includes WWE gobbling up a wider and wider swathe of available talent and doubling down on retaining the kinds of talents who would believably jump, like Finn Balor and The Revival.

If AEW tanks, it will take significant pressure off of WWE. Without another domestic promotion where talents can earn comparable money or potentially enjoy similar TV exposure, WWE can relax knowing it has more to offer wrestlers than anyone else. Furthermore, the odds are WWE would be able to re-sign whomever it likes, meaning it won’t need to work as hard at keeping talents happy with non-traditional schedules or salary offers.