Oh, How the mighty have fallen in the NFL!

By jcadillac01
Modified Nov 19, 2022 04:01 EDT
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Everyone in sports has heard about the SuperBowl hangover. Does it really happen to every team the following season that plays in the previous SuperBowl? We could go back every season and see if the next season was correct in that assumption, but that could easily fill a book for all 56 of the Superbowls. Everyone could name a Superbowl winner or loser that had a losing record and didn’t make the playoffs the next season. But just for argument's sake, we will look at the last three seasons and how they did the next season.

SuperBowl 54 KC Chiefs vs SF 49ers. KC 31, SF 20. SF looked like they were going to win this game. But in the end, KC Patrick Mahomes and his magic won the game for KC. The following season, San Francisco went into a tail spin. They ended the 2020 season 6-10 SU & 7-9 ATS. There was definitely a hangover there. At HOME they were 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS. On the ROAD they were 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS.

On the ROAD, SF was identical which is rare. The three games that they lost were @SEA, @NO & @DAL. These are three games lost SU & ATS, no deviation. This was rare, but SF played much better away from HOME than @HOME. Most times it is the other way around.

Record at HOME was very bad for SF. They won one game outright vs LAR as a DOG +3 ½, 24-16. The other game they won ATS was in wk 17 as a HOME DOG +5. In that game they lost to SEA 26-23. SF couldn’t find any real rhythm at HOME losing games SU and ATS as a FAV and as a DOG. It could be that they didn’t match up well against these teams, but, overall the whole season for SF was a total downer and there weren’t too many bright spots that SF could build on. They were dubbed with the “SuperBowl Hangover” moniker.

As for KC, there hasn’t been any hangovers or down games as long as QB Pat Mahomes is at the helm. KC went 14-2 SU but 6-9-1 ATS in 2020 and even made it to the SuperBowl. But there ATS record probably had gamblers up in arms. For weeks 1-8, KC was 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS. Pretty reliable except where KC was a FAV-8 ½ @LAC but, only won 23-20. Then in weeks 9-17 KC was 7-1 SU but 0-7-1 ATS. KC was winning but was not covering any spreads. They were a FAV in every game except week 17 vs LAC where they lost outright and were a DOG+3½. They were winning but by an average of three points. This probably drove the gamblers crazy. KC did enough to win the games, but not in the mind of the gamblers. This happens when a team is confident but doesn’t pour it on. KC won all those games but, didn’t cover any of them. Again, no rhyme or reason why but teams don’t play for the spreads, they play to win.

SuperBowl 55 TB Bucaneers vs KC Chiefs. Final score, BUCS 31, KC 9. The next season KC went 12-5 SU & 8-9 ATS. There was no fall off for KC. They keep rolling and beating teams in their path. A team will beat them here and there but overall, KC wins. On the ROAD KC went 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS. Not much deviation. It was only in the last game of the season when they were probably resting players is where they won but didn’t cover a -10 spread on the road. KC won that game, 28-24.

At HOME is where KC was troublesome. KC was 7-2 SU but 4-5 ATS. The two games that they lost SU were in wk 3 vs LAC, also ATS. Then in wk 5 vs BUFF, also ATS. The other ATS losses were wk 1 vs CLEV, an SU win but ATS loss. Then in wk 8 vs NYG as a FAV-10 where KC won SU but lost ATS, 20-17. Then in wk 9 as a FAV -7 ½ winning 13-7. This was an SU win but ATS loss. The rest of the HOME games were on target but again, no rhyme or reason as to why the rest of the games were of blowout proportion.

Coincidentally, KC made it all the way to the AFC Championship game, only to lose @HOME to CINNCY in OT. No fall off there.

For the BUCS, they actually did better during the season following their SB win then the season they won the SuperBowl. They were poised to get back to the SuperBowl. The BUCS went 13-4 SU & 9-8 ATS. At HOME, the BUCS went 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS. WK 15 @HOME for the BUCS saw NO beat them on SNF 9-0. This was their only loss that was SU & ATS. Week 1 saw TB win on TNF vs DAL but not cover the -8 ½ . TB won the game 31-29. This game went down to the wire and TB almost lost outright.

Away from HOME was another matter for TB. TB was 6-3 SU but 3-6 ATS. The three games that TB lost on the ROAD were as a FAV and they lost ATS as well. But the other three losses ATS, were games where TB was laying 6 ½, 7 and 13 points respectively. Those are big points to lay on the road. Teams don’t like being BIG HOME DOS and take pride in their play even if their record doesn’t reflect it. By the way, everyone knows the spread. The players know and when you are a BIG HOME DOG, everyone is basically saying that your team sucks.

TB probably cost some people some money because they didn’t cover these games. But if you do your homework, you will know that no team covers every BIG spread on the road. It also depends if it is a team in their division and if there are any mitigating factors that pump the other team up. You need to be aware of them.

But, neither of these teams had a Superbowl hangover as TB made it to the NFC Divisional round and KC made it to the AFC Championship game.

SuperBowl 56 LA RAMS vs Cincinnati Bengals. Final score, RAMS 23, Bengals 20. It was a great game that went down to the wire. But, this season neither team is poised to be a cinch for the playoffs. The Los Angeles Rams are currently 3-6 SU & 2-6-1 ATS. They have been just plain awful. This is not the same team that won the SuperBowl last season.

The RUSH OFFENSE for the Los Angeles Rams is currently #31. The Offensive Line has been depleted by injuries and the retirement of LT Andrew Whitworth. QB Matthew Stafford’s statistics are way down. Through eight games this season, Matthew has 8TDS, 8INTS and has been sacked 28x. Through eight games in 2021 Matthew had 22TDS, 4INTS & was sacked 7x. What a difference a year makes! The reason we only count eight games is because he was in concussion protocol for week 9 vs ARZ.

The Defense for the Rams has been constant, but when the Offense is so bad, the Defense spends more time than necessary on the field and eventually gets beat. In this case, the Rams get scored on more often than they do the scoring.

These are staggering numbers in contrast and a good indicator why things have gone south for the Rams this season. Also, anyone who knows football knows that the game is won on the line of scrimmage. Rams need to rebuild their Offensive line in the off-season if they want to bounce back from this awful season.

Looking at it from a gamblers point of view, you need to look at each team that the Rams play and see what kind of defense they have that matches up vs the Rams. This is important to figure out who has a defense that could shut down the Rams and get to the QB. Luckily, I do that for you on my website, www.jeffcadillac.com . But, the two games that the Rams have covered in this season was wk 3 @ARZ where they were the FAV-4 and when they were the HOME FAV-10 ½ vs CAR in wk 6. Looking at these games, the game vs ARZ in wk 3 could have gone either way and the game vs CAR was almost a back door cover by CAR. Rams were up 24-10 but, late in the 4th qtr, CAR put together a drive that landed them close to the RAMS endzone with some time to spare. The CAR QB threw a pass that got tipped around and landed in a RAMS defender’s hands in the endzone. The touchdown, the back door cover and threat was averted. But, it was that close.

Going forward, my advice to you is that if the RAMS are the FAV, fade them. If they are a significant DOG where they are getting 7>pts, take them. I have faded the RAMS in almost every game and there is a chance that they have a hard time winning any games the rest of the season. Plus the fact that WR Cooper Kupp is out for a significant time, you have an offense that is not used to having him in the lineup.

The Cincinnati Bengals are not this bad. They are 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS. 2022 started out badly for CINNCY and people were already saying “SB hangover”. They started out with losses to PITT and @DAL to start 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS. But since then, they are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS. They have steadily resurrected their season and are pushing forward to the playoffs. CINNCY’s other two losses SU were in wk 5 @BALT where they lost 19-17 but were +3. I liked CINNCY here because they always play BALT tight. Hence, remember this in wk 18 when they play BALT in CINNCY. Their other loss was @CLEV in wk 8 on MNF where they got walloped 32-13. This was CINNCY’s only loss by more than 3pts. Games like this happen and there is no rhyme or reason when and why they happen. It is important that you look at each game individually with CINNCY and see if there are other factors leading to a particular size spread and how they have played against that team in their division.

There will be some games where CINNCY wins SU but loses ATS. That is just the nature of the game. No team has ever gone exactly win for win and loss for loss, SU & ATS. This just doesn’t happen. But believe it or not, you have a better chance with the RAMS than you do with CINNCY because RAMS don’t match up well. CINNCY matches up well with their opponents and it will come down to turnovers or missed opportunities that decide their games.

So what we have learned here is, that you never know. I know, that’s not what you were looking to hear, but you have to do your homework. There is so much information out there on every team that you may get too much information that clouds your judgment. But you need to look at trends and certain particular injuries. Trends are your friends and injuries that replace star players can hurt a team in the win-loss column. People tend to like to label things and that’s where the “SuperBowl Hangover” started.

Labels tend to get people in trouble so try not to fall for the trap. If you do your homework on the games, you will find value even if a team is bad. I hope that I was able to give you some insight to some of these teams and hopefully it will help you with the season going forward!

You can find me at www.jeffcadillac.com, the Bettor Sports Network, Twitter @JeffCadillac1 and on the J&J Sports Express hosting by Sideline Sports.

Enjoy the games and I will catch you next week.

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