Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek vs Coco Gauff: Who has the easiest draw at US Open 2025?

The main draw of the 2025 US Open begins on Sunday, August 24, with the women’s singles draw unveiled on Thursday, August 21. Much of the attention is on defending champion Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, and Coco Gauff, and how they’ve been placed in the bracket.

Sabalenka, the current World No. 1, anchors the top half as she defends her Flushing Meadows crown. Meanwhile, World No. 2 Swiatek is riding a wave of momentum after Wimbledon and Cincinnati triumphs and leads the bottom half, joined by home favorite Gauff.

These three are the most dominant players of the season and have won the US Open title once each in the past three years. Sabalenka seeks to extend her New York legacy while Swiatek arrives at her peak, aiming for another Grand Slam title.

Gauff, with fresh coaching support, hopes to ignite another deep run. Let’s break down how each of their draws stacks up as the hunt for women’s major glory begins.

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka at the 2025 US Open - Source: Getty

Aryna Sabalenka opens against Rebeka Masarova. It’s a manageable start for the defending champion, though she'll want to settle in fast. The second round also looks favorable, with either Polina Kudermetova or Nuria Parrizas-Diaz likely waiting.

Things get tricky fast. In the third round, she could face Leylah Fernandez, the Washington champion and a former US Open finalist. That’s a brutal early test. The fourth round may bring another challenge in Clara Tauson, a dangerous ball-striker who has been climbing the rankings.

From there, the quarterfinals look stacked. Elena Rybakina and Emma Raducanu are both in her section, along with Jasmine Paolini. Any of them could stand across the net, and each is capable of taking out a top seed.

If Sabalenka makes the semis, she’s staring at a clash with Jessica Pegula or rising teen Mirra Andreeva. Both bring consistency and form that could trouble her. In the final, she could face Iga Swiatek or Coco Gauff, both in the bottom half of the draw.

Sabalenka’s prep hasn’t been ideal. She only played Cincinnati after Wimbledon, where she fell in the quarters. But she’s a proven hard-court champion with the weapons to win. Still, this is a brutal draw as it's one big battle after another.

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Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek at the 2025 US Open - Source: Getty

Iga Swiatek begins her campaign against Emiliana Arango. It’s a comfortable opener for the Wimbledon and Cincinnati champion, giving her a chance to ease into the tournament. The second round should also be straightforward, with either Suzan Lamens or Valerie Glozman standing in her way.

In the third round, things could step up against Anna Kalinskaya, who can upset the rhythm. The fourth round may bring Ekaterina Alexandrova, a player capable of hitting through opponents on her day but inconsistent at the majors.

From there, the 24-year-old's projected quarterfinal is against Amanda Anisimova. The American reached the Wimbledon final earlier this summer but lost 6-0, 6-0 to Swiatek in a lopsided match. It is something that will linger if they meet again.

Her semifinal could pit her against Coco Gauff, a match between former champions. Compared to Sabalenka and Gauff, Swiatek's draw looks the most favorable. Her form is peaking, her confidence is high, and until the quarterfinals, she avoids the true heavyweights.

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Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff at the 2025 US Open - Source: Getty

Coco Gauff begins her US Open campaign against Ajla Tomljanovic, a challenging opener against an experienced competitor who knows how to perform on the big stage. In the second round, things get even tougher with either Jessica Bouzas Maneiro or Donna Vekic, both dangerous players who can swing freely.

The third round could bring Magdalena Frech or American Peyton Stearns, another solid test before the heavy hitters arrive. The fourth round projects a blockbuster against Naomi Osaka, a four-time Grand Slam champion and two-time US Open winner.

If Gauff makes it through, the quarterfinals could line her up against Madison Keys, another former major champion. From there, the semifinal could be against Iga Swiatek, the most in-form player on tour right now.

It’s a brutal path. Gauff lost in the round of 16 in Canada and the quarters at Cincinnati. Those are respectable runs, but not deep enough for a World No. 3 heading into such a stacked draw. Anything can happen for the former champion, but she’ll need her very best from the start.