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The first big tennis tournament and first Grand Slam of 2018, the Australian Open, gets underway in less than 10 days time on January 15, 2018. Unlike recent years, the "big four" (or five if we include Stan Wawrinka) are not collectively the firm favorites. Like the 2017 US Open, the field is depleted by injuries, which have lead to withdrawals and players not at 100 per cent fitness. This may also lead to a large number of retirements as seen at Wimbledon 2017. The spate of injuries has caused a muted build up to the opening grand slam of the year.
The two biggest withdrawals from the men’s draw so far are Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori. Murray, a five-time finalist, will not participate due to the hip injury which caused him to call time on his 2017 season after losing at Wimbledon. Nishikori has not played since a wrist injury forced him to withdraw from the Cincinnati Open.
In the women’s draw Serena Williams has withdrawn as she does not feel she is at a stage where she can give 100 per cent. Serena has not played a competitive match since she won the 2017 Australian Open, following her pregnancy and the September birth of her baby.
Let’s run down some big names left in the men’s side.
Defending champion Roger Federer, at 37.5 years is surprisingly the odds-on favorite to retain his title. The Swiss ace is coming off a tremendous 2017 where he won seven titles including two Grand Slams, and was in great form throughout the year. Federer appears to have carried that form into 2018, leading Switzerland to their third Hopman Cup title and first in 17 years. He won all four of his singles matches for the loss of only one set. He will be helped by the fact that his main rivals are carrying or recovering from injuries. The Swiss maestro will take advantage of this and will do his best to add to his Grand Slam titles.
Rafael Nadal – the world number one and last year’s finalist has not played since withdrawing from the ATP Finals with a knee injury. He has withdrawn from the Abu Dhabi exhibition event and the Brisbane International, which will leave him with no 2018 match practice before the Australian Open. He does not appear to be 100 per cent fit, but coach, Carlos Moya said he is on course to be fit for the Australian Open so long as he does not twist his knee in practice. Although he appears to be doubtful, he is scheduled to play the Tie Break Tens on January 10. Nadal should not be counted out, however it is difficult to see him progressing to the final should he decide to play.
Six-time champion Novak Djokovic has not played since withdrawing from Wimbledon with an elbow injury. He also withdrew from the Abu Dhabi exhibition event and the Qatar Open which will leave him, like Nadal, with no match practice in 2018 should he play the Australian Open. Similar to Nadal, he appears doubtful however is scheduled to play in two exhibition tournaments, the Kooyong Classic and the Tie Break Tens. Djokovic has developed into one of the world's strongest players when at full fitness. However, not only is he battling an injury but his mental strength has been called into question and should he play the Australian Open, he will face a tough time advancing past the fourth round.
2014 champion Stan Wawrinka has not played since losing at Wimbledon and has had surgery on his injured knee. He is on the road to recovery however remains doubtful. He will have had no match practice if he decides to play.
Big serving Canadian and former world number three Miles Raonic called time on his 2017 season after retiring from the Japan Open in October with a wrist injury. Raonic made his return at the Brisbane International but was beaten in straight sets. Based on this preparation it is difficult to see him as being a strong contender.
Marin Cilic and Juan Martin Del Potro, the world number six and 11 respectively, are each chasing their second Grand Slam title. Both have tasted Grand Slam success at the US Open, Cilic in 2014 and Del Potro in 2009. While Cilic went on to reach the 2017 Wimbledon final in a losing effort against Federer, Del Potro has not reached another Grand Slam final since his 2009 victory with his best showing being the semi-finals at the 2009 French Open, Wimbledon in 2013, and the US Open last year. Both of these players have not had much success down under and this year will also probably not change that.
Grigor Dimitrov – the current world number three had a career-best year in 2017 winning four titles including his first Masters 1000 tournament as well as the ATP Finals. After giving Nadal a tough fight in last year’s Australian Open semi-final, he has started 2018 well by reaching the semi-finals of the Brisbane International. Dimitrov, nicknamed ‘Baby Fed’ for his similar style of play to Roger Federer, has never reached a Grand Slam final but just may be the surprise finalist this year in the weakened field.
Alexander Zverev – the current world number four also had his best year in 2017 winning five titles including two Masters 1000 tournaments with victories over Djokovic and Federer. His best Grand Slam showing is the fourth round at Wimbledon 2017. He will need to work hard to improve on that record and he will want to prove that 2017 was no fluke.
Other NextGen players like Dominic Thiem, Pablo Carreno Busta, Andrey Rublev, and Karen Khachanov can do well in the early rounds but can they go deep into the draw? Canadian sensation, Denis Shapovalov, was the 2017 ATP Most Improved Player, and will be looking to build on his 2017 performance where he had victories over Nadal and Del Potro. He may need a couple of more years before he becomes a serious contender.
Will the much vaunted NextGen be able to take advantage of the injury plagued roster and step up on the Grand Slam stage? They are definitely making their mark now and will be looking to take center stage.
Americans Jack Sock and Sam Querrey are dangerous floaters, along with Tomas Berdych and Kevin Anderson. Berdych and Anderson are both Grand Slam finalists at Wimbledon and the US Open respectively. Sock suffered a hip injury at the recent Hopman Cup while Querrey, Berdych and Anderson are all on the wrong side of 30, so it would be a surprise to see them go all the way.
The enigma that is Australia's Nick Kyrgios has all the tools but suffers from mental implosions and also falters when playing top players. His epic semi-final match against Federer at Indian Wells last year and his victory at the Brisbane International this year should boost his confidence. He will need to decide if tennis is a passion or a job for him.
After looking at the probable contenders, Roger Federer still seems to stand head and shoulders above the current field in the current condition they are in. This is truly remarkable considering his age and the position he was in after injury in 2016. The Swiss star will be eager to start the year on a high note and carry over his success from 2017. It will take a special performance from his opponent or, God forbid, an injury to prevent the Swiss master from capturing his sixth Australian Open and 20th Grand Slam title. If he does go on to win, then it will be the first time he has defended a Grand Slam title since the 2008 US Open.
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