Australian Open 2020: Statistical analysis of Roger Federer's victory over John Millman

It was an emphatic day of tennis at the Australian Open that ended on a high note with the third-round matchup between Roger Federer and John Millman. There were many surprises along the day, with Coco Gauff stunning Naomi Osaka, Serena Williams losing out Qiang Wang and Milos Raonic thumping Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Just when you think that the tournament has seen enough upsets, the local star John Millman almost pulled off yet another major upset as he was dominant throughout the match, even in the super tiebreaker in the end.

But Federer, after being 4-8 down in the tiebreaker won six straight points to clinch victory after 4 hours and three minutes of gruesome tennis. Luck was behind Federer as it was Millman who thrashed every strategic move made by the Swiss.

Right from the start, Federer looked a bit unsettled as he lost his second service game and Millman was covering the entire court in no time. It was one of those nights for Federer where he couldn't read his opponent's game and thus frustrating him.

Let's take a look at the match stats.

Millman's first serve percentage was 62 whereas Federer's stood at 65. But, the percentage of points won on the second serve was high for Millman. He won 61% of points on his second serve in comparison with Federer's 51.

A lot is said and written about players like John Isner, Ivo Karlovic and how well they serve. But, Millman's serve is lost somewhere amongst their staggering numbers. He might not have numbers to boast, but today's match will be a testament to his brilliant service.Every time Federer tried to build pressure on the Aussie, he came up with an amazing serve. Be it body or down the line serve, he just kept his opponent guessing in the entire match.

In the course of attempting something different, Federer put his experience in display and with a bit of luck, it paid off. He approached the net 64 times and won 46 of those points whereas Millman only managed to win 9 out of 24 net points he played.

But, Millman was exquisite from the baseline. He always kept Federer on the run and constantly attacked his forehand. Since Federer was not the player to keep the ball in play for long, he made a whopping 82 unforced errors in the match. Millman only made 48 unforced errors.

Throughout the match, both the forehand and the backhand of Federer were all over the place as he struggled to hit the ball cleanly. Except for a few forehand and backhand winners, Federer's shot-making took a toll because of Millman.

The only aspect that worked well for Federer was his serve. He was able to hold serve at crucial moments in the match and made sure to fight even while he was 4 points down in the match tie-breaker.

Federer managed to hit 62 winners (including 16 aces) in comparison with Millman's 40 winners (including 11 aces). Even the break points conversion was not good for Roger as he won only 3 out of 10 points. Millman did a better job by winning 4 out of 8 break points.

John Millman gave everything he had on Rod Laver Arena today and if not for those few errors he made towards the end, he would have won the match. On the other hand, Roger took chances at crucial moments in the match forcing Millman to make errors. This tactic worked well towards the end as he defeated the Aussie, 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(10-8).

Got 60 seconds? ⏱Here's how @rogerfederer reached the century club at #AO2020.The six-time #AusOpen champion becomes the first player to record 100 match-wins at two different Grand Slam events (also #Wimbledon). pic.twitter.com/JFC3bDVaiB
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 24, 2020

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This victory also makes Roger Federer the first player to win 100 matches at the Australian Open. He will now face Martin Fucsovics for a place in the quarter-finals.