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It is almost time for the year’s first Grand Slam and Novak Djokovic is all set to launch his pursuit of a record-extending 11th Australian Open crown.
The Serb will lead the field at the 112th edition of the tournament as the top seed. Looking to derail his title defense will be a slew of top names, led by second seed Carlos Alcaraz and last year’s runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Add to the mix the likes of former finalist Daniil Medvedev, the rising duo of Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune, a resurgent Alexander Zverev, and a whole host of hopefuls. We have for ourselves a highly competitive draw.
Some of these names, however, have performed particularly well on the Australian hardcourts in the past. Here, we rank the top eight contenders for the title based on their performances in the Australian Open series over the last three years.
Note: The following formula was used to calculate the power rankings: (1x points earned in the 2024 AO series + 0.5x points earned in the 2023 AO series + 0.25x points earned in the 2020 AO series).
Only points earned by reaching the quarterfinals or further in a tournament counted towards the rankings. This was done to avoid giving undue advantage to seeded players who received early-round byes in the ATP 250 and 500 tournaments.
#8 Alexander Zverev
Alexander Zverev is back in Melbourne as a top-10 player, still vying for his maiden Grand Slam trophy. The German, who was sidelined for most of 2022 after a horrific tender tear suffered at the French Open, has slowly built his game back.
Dare we say, he looks in just as menacing a form as when he made the US Open final back in 2020. Zverev was key in Germany’s successful campaign at the United Cup, winning three of his four singles matches. He has also spent a considerable amount of time on the doubles court, honing his front-court skills.
While Zverev’s recent showings Down Under have been underwhelming, his big serve and baseline prowess spell hardcourt success.
#7 Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev made a strong run at Melbourne Park 12 months ago, matching his best performance by reaching the quarterfinals. The 26-year-old ran into Novak Djokovic, failing to make an impact at the time.
He has, however, since taken a win against the Serb and comes into this year's tournament sitting at a career-high ranking.
Rublev has also made a stellar start to the year, racing to the title in Hong Kong. Averaging around 10 aces a match already, the Russian is looking strong. And having landed in a relatively open section of the draw, this might be the year that Rublev breaks past the quarterfinal barrier.
#6 Sebastian Korda
Sebastian Korda played his first full season on Tour last year, stopping at every Grand Slam for the first time since making his debut in 2020.
The American has shown plenty of promise over the years, but untimely injuries have kept him from stringing together a strong run. Australia, however, has always been a happy hunting ground.
He made the final at Adelaide last year, nearly ousting Novak Djokovic for the title. 12 months on, he finds himself a win away from another final on Aussie soil as he is still in contention in Adelaide.
Korda also had his big Grand Slam breakthrough at the Australian Open last year, reaching his first quarterfinal. Looking in great touch, he could go a step or two further this time around.
#5 Daniil Medvedev
A former Australian Open finalist, Daniil Medvedev knows what it takes to win on the big stage. That said, the Russian has had a rather muted start to the season in the last couple of years.
His Australian Open run from 2022 added with another semifinal finish in Adelaide last year was still enough to secure him a spot in the middle of the power rankings.
The draw awards Medvedev some breathing room and he could use the early rounds to get acclimatized to the conditions. If settled in, he could be dangerous as with four Slam finals and 76 match wins at the level, his experience is second only to Djokovic.
#4 Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul is a player who tends to fly under the radar until he gets that one big win on the big stage that grabs eyeballs. Case in point — the Canadian Open double of Carlos Alcaraz (back-to-back upsets in 2022 and 2023).
The American has made marked progress and the results have been particularly impressive on the hardcourts. Besides his Australian Open semifinal run from last year, he boasts of three quarterfinal showings in Adelaide.
When playing at his best, Paul can outhit any opponent from the baseline. Electric speed and comfort on hardcourts make him an even bigger threat and he could well back his performance from 12 months with another strong showing.
#3 Karen Khachanov
Another name that hardly finds mention in the contenders list when talking about Grand Slam is Karen Khachanov. And yet, much like Paul, the Russian has put together an impressive resume.
His performances Down Under have been especially impressive. While he is yet to win a title in this part of the world, he has remained a regular feature in quarterfinal line-ups, collecting four in the last two years.
The modest 15-7 win-loss record at the Australian Open fails to do justice to his efforts against eventual champion Rafael Nadal and an in-form Matteo Berrettini in the last few years. Given some help from the draw, Khachanov could have his moment in the Sun this year.
#2 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Not many would have picked Stefanos Tsitsipas to make the final in Melbourne last year, but he impressed with his big win over Jannik Sinner and Khachanov.
While his performance in the summit clash left much to be desired, the run, added to another impressive semifinal showing from a year ago, showed he could be a force on the quick hardcourts as well.
While we have not seen the Greek play enough in 2024, Tsitsipas can very well stage another deep run. His only problem is the draw having pitted him against big hitters like Matteo Berrettini and Taylor Fritz.
The United Cup contest against Zverev exposed some vulnerability. It will be interesting to see how the Greek handles his matches under the pressure of defending a huge chunk of points.
#1 Australian Open defending champ Novak Djokovic
For the nth year running, Novak Djokovic will be the man to beat at the Australian Open. The Serb, despite not making it to Melbourne Park in 2022, emerged as the leader in the power rankings by some distance.
A vast chunk of his points come from the run to the title last year. But take nothing away from the man as he was a force throughout. Dropping just the odd set against French qualifier Enzo Couacaud early, the Serb went about business to claim a record 10th Australian Open crown.
Buoyed by a sense of belonging at the venue where he has had the most success, Djokovic emits an aura of invincibility at the season’s first Slam. Alex de Minaur did show the world that he could be beaten Down Under, but with a five-set match (Grand Slams) win-loss record of 361-48, he stands tall amid the field.
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