2. The Return
There are statistics for the return of serve on the ATP website too, but in this case the numbers don't give as much of a clear picture. For one thing, there's no direct equivalent to the ace here. How many outright return winners have the players hit in their career? How many forced errors have they elicited through their returns? This is where the lack of adequate ATP statistics really starts to rankle.
Moreover, when I look at a player's winning percentage on the first serve return, I can't help but wonder whether that number is high because of his forceful returns, or because his superior ground game frequently comes into play after he has neutralized the serve.
Of course, the same question could be asked of the winning percentage stats on the serve too: does Federer have such good serving numbers because of his serve in isolation, or because the rest of his game is so strong? The difference lies in the supporting stats that we have for the serve: a player with a high number of aces and above-average first serve percentage (Isner and Karlovic score highly in both those categories) should logically be supposed to have a good serve – irrespective of the quality of all his other strokes.
Long story short, determining the best contemporary return of serve comes down to the objective and the unquantifiable parameters in equal measure. First things first: who dominates the stats? The usual suspects all fare well here: Djokovic has won 32.3% of all the return games he has played in his career and 44.3% of his break points, David Ferrer has won 32% and 44.1% respectively, while for Murray the numbers are 31.8% and 43.3%.
A little surprisingly, Nadal sits at the top of the pile in both categories: he wins 33.4% of his return games and converts 45.2% of his break points. The Spaniard also leads in the first and second serve return winning percentage, at 34% and 55.2% respectively.
As for the other likely contenders, I expected Kei Nishikori to have better numbers than 27.5% return games won and 40.7% break points converted.
That's the numbers taken care of, then. But who do we feel has the best return, based on how heavily they seem to rely on that shot? It's hard to look past Djokovic, Murray and Nishikori here. Nadal, despite his statistical superiority, is more of a safe returner than an overpowering one; his baseline game is so good that once the point is neutralized, he almost invariably ends up running away with it (both literally and figuratively).
For the record, Nadal's all-round off-the-ground excellence is also backed up by the fact that he is fairly high up in the serving stats leaderboard too. Get this: he has the best second serve points won percentage in history, at 56.8%. That's some serious game, especially when you consider his serving speeds are regularly rivalled by WTA players.
But it is Djokovic's returns that are the stuff of legend – who else could have hit the Return of the Century with as much bravado as he did back in the 2011 US Open semifinal? The Serb has the perfect combination of aggression and control, and is equally proficient with the shot off both the forehand and the backhand. His incredible flexibility also makes him uniquely equipped to deal with wide serves and body serves, and there's no one better than him at punishing lollypop second serves.
Nadal himself speaks of the Djokovic return with something close to awe, and more than a little disbelief.
“Is something unbelievable how he returns, no? His return probably is one of the best of the history. That's my opinion, no? I never played against a player who's able to return like this. Almost every time,” Nadal had said after their epic 2012 Australian Open final.
Murray and Nishikori aren't too far off the pace; the Scot might possibly be the best neutralizer of the big flat serve in the history of the game, while Nishikori's quick hands and reflexes make for some stunning re-directions of the ball. But it is Djokovic who is consistently the best, and the one who most frequently inspires comparisons with Andre Agassi.
The pick: Novak Djokovic
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