Canadian Open 2025: Jelena Ostapenko vs Naomi Osaka preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick | National Bank Open

Match Details

Fixture: (22) Jelena Ostapenko vs Naomi Osaka

Date: August 1, 2025

Tournament: National Bank Open

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: IGA Stadium, Montreal, Canada

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $5,152,599

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel, TC Plus | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - Sportsnet, TVA

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Jelena Ostapenko vs Naomi Osaka preview

Jelena Ostapenko | Image Source: Getty

22nd seed Jelena Ostapenko will face off against unseeded Naomi Osaka in the third round (Round of 32) of the 2025 Canadian Open in Montreal on Friday, August 1.

Ostapenko’s season has been a true roller coaster, marked by inconsistent results. Her standout moments include winning the title at the BOSS Open in Stuttgart by defeating Aryna Sabalenka and reaching the Qatar Open final, where she fell to Amanda Anisimova.

Outside of those two tournaments, the Latvian has struggled to find consistency, with her hard-court results falling short as she has rarely advanced past the Round of 16 in singles. She is now aiming for a fresh start in Montreal and took the first step by defeating Renata Zarazua 6-2, 4-6, 6-2 in the second round.

Naomi Osaka | Image Source: Getty

Meanwhile, Osaka has also struggled to produce notable results on the main tour this season. Her only title came at the WTA 125K event in Saint-Malo, which doesn’t count as a main tour title. She also reached the final of the ASB Classic.

The former World No. 1 began her North American hard-court swing at the Citi DC Open, where she fell to Emma Raducanu in the Round of 16. At the Canadian Open, she opened with a 6-4, 6-2 win over Ariana Arsenault and followed it up with a hard-fought 4-6, 7-6(6), 6-3 upset of 13th seed Liudmila Samsonova.

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Jelena Ostapenko vs Naomi Osaka head-to-head

Ostapenko and Osaka have faced each other twice on the WTA Tour so far. The Japanese leads the head-to-head 2-0, with wins at the 2016 French Open and the 2024 US Open.

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Jelena Ostapenko vs Naomi Osaka odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Jelena Ostapenko	+145	+2.5 (-105)	Under 21.5 (-120)
Naomi Osaka	-190	-2.5 (-140)	Over 21.5 (-118)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Jelena Ostapenko vs Naomi Osaka prediction

Naomi Osaka and Jelena Ostapenko are Grand Slam champions with explosive firepower, and this matchup is all about who can seize the momentum first.

Osaka is still working her way back to her peak form, but her serve and clean baseline hitting remain her biggest weapons. If she finds her range early and controls her service games, she can put immense pressure on Ostapenko to take risks.

Ostapenko, meanwhile, brings her trademark all-or-nothing style. The Latvian hits fearlessly off both wings and is more than capable of taking the racquet out of her opponent’s hands. But with her, consistency is always the question--if the unforced errors pile up, she leaves herself vulnerable to a composed opponent like Osaka.

This could be a high-octane affair with plenty of winners and momentum swings, but if Osaka keeps her serve steady and absorbs Ostapenko’s pace without rushing, she has the edge to advance to the fourth round.

Pick: Osaka to win in three sets.