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Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner's dominance has ushered in a new era on the men's tour. They have won the past six Majors and contested their first Major final against each other at the recently concluded French Open. The match certainly lived up to the hype, with the Spaniard saving three championship points to successfully defend his title.
Given their duopoly over the sport's most coveted prizes, they occupy the top two spots in the ATP rankings, with Sinner being in first place. He is in no danger of being displaced from the summit regardless of what transpires at Wimbledon 2025. However, what happens at the tournament will set the stage for the battle for the World No. 1 ranking between them.
Wimbledon will begin from Monday, June 30, and Sinner will have 10,430 points to his name. Alcaraz, meanwhile, will have 9,300 points. The former made the quarterfinals last year, thus defending only 400 points this time, while the latter has 2,000 points to safeguard as the defending champion.
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Sinner's lead of 1,130 points gives him enough of a safety net to remain on top even if he suffers an early exit and Alcaraz defends his crown. Conversely, an early exit by the Spaniard, coupled with a title or a result better than the quarterfinals, will only increase the Italian's lead in the rankings.
While Sinner leads the traditional 52-week rankings, the live rankings, which only include the results from this year, paint a different picture. Alcaraz has 6,240 points in the live rankings and has put a healthy distance between him and Sinner, who has 4,000 points.
Sinner's three-month ban played a role in him falling behind, though Alcaraz played his part and became a winning machine once the clay season got underway. The Italian defended his Australian Open crown, which fetched him 2,000 points and took the pole position in the live rankings. His suspension kicked in after that.
Alcaraz made the last eight Down Under, and even after winning the title in Rotterdam, he trailed his rival in the live rankings. Failing to defend his Indian Wells title and an early exit from Miami compounded his woes. However, the 22-year-old got back on track with his triumph at the Monte-Carlo Masters.
The title finally helped Alcaraz edge past Sinner in the live rankings. A runner-up finish in Barcelona extended his lead, though an injury forced him to miss the Madrid Open, costing him the opportunity to surge ahead. Both of them were in action at the Italian Open and faced off in the final, with the Spaniard coming out on top. Their French Open epic followed after that.
They posted contrasting results in their only warm-up tournament prior to Wimbledon. Alcaraz won the title at Queen's Club, adding 500 points to reach his current tally of 6,240 points in the live rankings. Sinner, on the other hand, failed to defend his title in Halle, bowing out in the second round, bringing his total to 4,000 points in the live rankings.
Given their results this year, Alcaraz has a good shot at taking over as the World No. 1 in the coming months. Sinner has a ton of points to defend in the latter half of the season, unlike the Spaniard, thus giving the latter a massive advantage.
Carlos Alcaraz could dislodge Jannik Sinner from the top of the rankings after Wimbledon
Wimbledon 2025 is likely to determine who will end the season as the World No. 1. Jannik Sinner defends over half of his ranking points in the months after the grass court Major. He won the US Open, the Cincinnati Open and the Shanghai Masters, and the ATP Finals in the tail end of the 2024 season.
Sinner also finished as the runner-up to Alcaraz at the China Open, and reached the quarterfinals of the Canadian Open. That's 6,000 points for him to defend following Wimbledon. A deep run at the All England Club is paramount for him in order to maintain his position atop the rankings. However, given his dominance on hardcourts, he could potentially defend everything, even if his campaign in London goes sideways.
Carlos Alcaraz made early exits from the Cincinnati Open and the US Open last year, and bowed out from the ATP Finals in the group stage. His China Open title, worth 500 points, is the only big result he has to worry about post Wimbledon, and he has to defend a total of 1,060 points overall.
If Alcaraz manages to defend his title at the grass court Major, then he will be in a great position to overtake Sinner down the line. The stakes were already high when it came to Wimbledon, and the battle for the top spot has upped the ante for both players.
Alcaraz is bidding to join the likes of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer by winning three consecutive titles at SW19, while Sinner is vying to capture his first title there. They will be the top two seeds at Wimbledon, and thus won't cross paths prior to the final. Fans will be in for a treat if they get to see them duking it out so soon after their memorable French Open tussle.
