Cincinnati Open 2025 Final: Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (3) Iga Swiatek vs (7) Jasmine Paolini

Date: August 18, 2025

Tournament: 2025 Cincinnati Open

Round: Final

Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Center, Mason, Ohio, USA

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $5,152,599

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini preview

In Picture: Swiatek at the Cincinnati Open (Getty)

The women's singles final at the 2025 Cincinnati Open will be contested between third seed Iga Swiatek and seventh seed Jasmine Paolini.

Swiatek has won 48 of the 60 matches this year, with her best stint coming on grass, where she won the Wimbledon title, and also reached the final of the Bad Homburg Open, losing against Jessica Pegula.

Before the final in Cincinnati, Swiatek's best hard-court results of the year included semifinal finishes at the Australian Open, the Qatar Open, and the BNP Paribas Open. At the Cincinnati Open, she began her campaign with a first-round bye, after which she started with a confident 6-1, 6-4 win over Anastasia Potapova in the second round.

After getting a walkover from Marta Kostyuk, Swiatek won 6-4, 6-3 against Sorana Cirstea in the fourth round and then won 6-3, 6-4 against 28th-seeded Anna Kalinskaya in the quarterfinals. In the last-eight clash against ninth seed Elena Rybakina, the Pole trailed 3-5 in the first set. However, she managed to win four games in a row to take the set, and then took the second set with a dominant 6-2 scoreline.

Jasmine Paolini has a 33-13 win/loss record this year, with her best result being winning her home event at the Italian Open. Apart from that title, the Italian player has reached the semifinals across the three surfaces, at Miami, Stuttgart, and Bad Homburg.

At the Cincinnati Open, Paolini got a bye in the first round, after which she won 7-6 (2), 7-6 (5) against Maria Sakkari in the second round, before winning 7-6 (2), 6-1 against 26th-seeded Ashlyn Krueger in the third round. She won 6-1, 6-2 against last year's Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova in the fourth round.

In the quarterfinals, Paolini won 2-6, 6-4, 6-3 against the second seed and 2023 Cincinnati champion, Coco Gauff. In the semifinals, she faced off against unseeded Veronika Kudermetova and started confidently, winning the first set 6-3. She had a chance to serve the match out at 5-4 in the second set, but lost her serve and lost the set in the tiebreaker. However, she kept her cool and won the third set 6-3, and reached her maiden Cincinnati final.

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Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini head-to-head

Swiatek has a 5-0 head-to-head record against Paolini, winning 6-1, 6-3 against the Italian at their last match at the Bad Homburg Open this year.

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Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total games
Iga Swiatek	-500	-1.5 (-175)	Over 21.5 (+100)
Jasmine Paolini	+375	+1.5 (+120)	Under 21.5 (-145)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini prediction

With 80 percent and 54 percent win rates behind her first and second serves, respectively, Swiatek's serving has been on point in Cincinnati. She has a 44 percent break point conversion rate and has saved 8 of the 13 break points she has faced on her serve.

Paolini has won 69 percent of her first serve points along with 55 percent of her second serve points. She has generated 46 break point opportunities in her five matches, converting 20 of them. However, she has been vulnerable on serve, as she has been broken 12 times at this competition.

Paolini's serve is the biggest weakness for the Italian heading into the final, as she does not have a big serve. Along with that, the dominant head-to-head gives an added advantage to Swiatek.

Pick- Swiatek to win in straight sets