Cincinnati Open 2025: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina preview, head-to-head, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (3) Iga Swiatek vs (9) Elena Rybakina

Date: August 16, 2025

Tournament: 2025 Cincinnati Open

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Center, Mason, Ohio, USA

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $5,152,599

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina preview

In Picture: Swiatek at the Cincinnati Open (Getty)

Third seed Iga Swiatek will face off against ninth seed Elena Rybakina in the semifinal of the 2025 Cincinnati Open.

Swiatek has won 47 of the 59 matches in 2025, with her crowning moment being winning her sixth Major title at Wimbledon. She also had a runner-up finish at the Bad Homburg Open, losing against Jessica Pegula in the final.

Swiatek has a 26-7 win/loss record on hard courts this year so far, with her best results being reaching the semifinals at the Australian Open, Qatar Open, and at the BNP Paribas Open. In the North American hard-court swing, she reached the fourth round in Montreal, losing 6-7 (1), 3-6 against Clara Tauson.

At the Cincinnati Open, Iga Swiatek got a bye in the first round, following which she won 6-1, 6-4 against Anastasia Potapova in the second round. She got a walkover from 25th seed Marta Kostyuk in the third round, and then won 6-4, 6-4 against Sorana Cirstea in the fourth round. In the quarterfinals, she won 6-3, 6-4 against the 28th seed, Anna Kalinskaya.

With one clay-court title in Strasbourg, Elena Rybakina has a 41-15 win/loss record in 2025. She has a 27-9 win/loss record on hard courts this year, with some of her best results on the surface being semifinal finishes in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, along with two semifinal appearances in Washington and Montreal during the North American hard-court swing.

At the Cincinnati Open, Rybakina opened her campaign with a first-round bye, following which she won her next three matches against Renata Zarazua, 15th seed Elise Mertens, and sixth seed Madison Keys, after losing the first set in every encounter. However, she caused a big upset in the quarterfinals, winning 6-1, 6-4 against the top seed and defending champion, Aryna Sabalenka.

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Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina head-to-head

The head-to-head is 5-4 in favor of Swiatek, with the Pole winning the last match 1-6, 6-3, 7-5 at the French Open this year.

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Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Iga Swiatek	-170	-1.5 (+130)	Over 22.5 (-110)
Elena Rybakina	+140	+1.5 (-190)	Under 22.5 (-130)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina prediction

Iga Swiatek has served well at the ongoing Cincinnati Open, winning 78 percent of the first serve points and 55 percent of the second serve points. She has converted 12 of the 26 break point opportunities she has had and has saved 5 of the 9 break points she has faced on her serve.

Rybakina has won 80 percent of her first serve points, along with 53 percent of her second serve points. She has converted 16 of the 43 break point opportunities she has got and has saved 22 of the 28 break points she has conceded on her serve.

Serving stats will be a key factor in the upcoming match, as Rybakina's serve is more effective on a hard court compared to Swiatek's serve. However, with a recent Grand Slam win and Rybakina's pattern of losing close matches in the last few events, the Pole will have the edge on the pressure points.

Pick- Swiatek to win in three sets