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Roger Federer is back in action, but he hasn't been having the best of times on court lately. After losing in the quarterfinals of the Qatar Open in March, Federer failed to get past the first round at the Geneva Open last week.
The Swiss has a 1-2 win-loss record in 2021, and he goes into Roland Garros with very little match practice. But Federer's main objective this summer is Wimbledon, and his fans would be hoping that he manages to turn things around by the time the grasscourt Slam rolls around.
On that note, two of Sportskeeda's tennis writers got down to discussing Roger Federer's prospects and possibilities over the next couple of months. Here's how the conversation unfolded:
Soham: Hey Haresh (Note: Haresh Ramchandani of Sportskeeda)! Tennis is going full steam ahead despite the pandemic, but the same can't be said about Roger Federer. And I believe his chances at Wimbledon are slim if he doesn't play an extra tournament or two (in addition to the French Open and Halle) in the lead-up.
Since his comeback against Dan Evans at the 2021 Qatar Open, Roger Federer has played three matches, of which he has lost two. Most recently, he fell to Pablo Andujar on the claycourts of Geneva, which surprised many given that he led by 4-2 in the decider.
While Roger Federer may not rely heavily on training sessions to find his form, he does need to get a 'feel' of matches. Even before his much-celebrated win at the 2017 Australian Open, the Swiss played a bunch of matches at the Hopman Cup; he didn't exactly go into Melbourne blind.
Roger Federer doesn’t have the simplest of ball-striking techniques, so the more he plays, the better his chances of regaining his famed touch and feel.
But Federer has - in what is a surprising move for me - decided to play just three tournaments before Wimbledon. Even more strangely, two of those three are on clay – the Geneva Open and Roland Garros (with Halle being his only grass event).
Before I proceed, let me clarify that I am not suggesting Federer should skip the French Open. On the contrary, I hope for his sake that he gets as far as possible in Paris, which would give him much-needed match practice ahead of Wimbledon.
The inescapable fact, however, is that Federer's loss to Andujar is very worrying. It isn't just about the unflattering result; it is also the fact that he has robbed himself of the chance to get some matches under his belt.
Roger Federer is nowhere close to his best form or fitness, and he hasn’t played a best-of-five-sets match since last year's Australian Open. For me, these factors indicate that Federer is unlikely to go deep in the Paris draw.
I believe Roger Federer needs to have played at least a dozen matches before Wimbledon to have any chance of challenging for the title. And he is unlikely to get those many by playing just Roland Garros and Halle.
Many would claim that a player of Roger Federer’s caliber might not require as many matches as others to regain his form. But we cannot ignore the fact that he will turn 40 in just over two and a half months.
What is your view on this?
Haresh: Hey Soham! Trust things are better in London than here in Mumbai with the pandemic.
I agree with your first point; Roger Federer would've certainly hoped to have got more matches under his belt by this point. And your assessment of Federer's chances at Roland Garros seems quite apt too.
Like the Swiss himself said after losing to Andujar, winning the French Open is not a realistic goal for him at the moment.
Even the most die-hard fans of Roger Federer's are probably not expecting a repeat of his 2017 Aussie Open run this year. And I get your concern about him not being match-fit heading into Wimbledon, which seems like his best shot to go deep at a Major at this stage in his career.
But I'm not sure I would have had him enter more tournaments when he isn’t confident about being physically ready to compete with the boys on tour. Wouldn't going to these tournaments and losing more matches prove to be a dampener for his confidence?
I know it's a catch-22 situation for Roger Federer. He isn't playing a lot of matches, so he can't gain confidence. And he can't gain confidence unless he plays and wins matches.
But having followed Federer closely over the years, we know that he's been pretty good at picking his spots on the calendar and playing when he is fit and confident. That, in fact, is one of the reasons he delayed his latest comeback.
I still feel that even if Federer loses early in Paris, a decent run at Halle should be good enough to get some of his rhythm back. And once he's on the hallowed courts of SW19, who knows what magic could unfold.
Any chance you plan to watch him play this time at Wimbledon, if crowds are allowed? I remember you gushing over the experience of watching him at the ATP Finals a few years ago.
Soham: Things are certainly better here, thanks Haresh! And I do wish the situation improves soon in India.
Back to Roger Federer, I would say that he has kept me and all of us in the media industry far busier in previous years, which is completely understandable. Sometimes I complain that he has played just three matches all year, but then I remember that a decade ago, I was sure that he would be long retired by 2021. And yet he is still here, raring to go, which I feel we should all be thankful about.
Federer has rarely been wrong in assessing things regarding his career and tennis. That gives his fans hope that there is some substance to his Wimbledon ambitions. If he feels he has a chance to win at SW19, then all anyone can do is wait and see how his run pans out.
I do agree that Roger Federer has spoiled us with his heroics in 2017 (and 2018). But I also believe that Federer is a player who takes confidence from the smallest of victories.
Let me explain that with an example. While Federer did lose to Nikoloz Basilashvili in Doha (who has been in pretty decent form this year), he thoroughly dominated the Georgian in the first set and held firm for most parts of the decider despite being absolutely exhausted. I think Federer would have taken confidence from the fact that he was a point away from victory despite being nowhere close to his peak in either form or fitness.
Roger Federer looked set to win against Andujar as well, but a 10-minute lapse in concentration cost him the match. Now if he were to take part in another tournament or two aside from Paris and Halle, he could have more such positive moments - which in turn would boost his confidence further.
In a way, everything depends on how well he does at Roland Garros. Anything between two and four wins for the Swiss would help, but if it is the former (or lower), he might be well-served by adding another event (Stuttgart, maybe?) to his schedule.
As for the possibilty of me going to Wimbledon, I think a small percentage (or more) of fans will be allowed. But getting tickets at SW19 in a typical year has always been a nightmare, so I shudder to think what it could be like this time.
I do have another question for you though. Let's assume Roger Federer plays around 6-7 matches combined in Paris and Halle, but is presented with a tricky draw at SW19 brimming with 'servebots' and grasscourt specialists. Do you think a 40-year-old Federer can outdo players like that at his age?
Haresh: Roger Federer against a servebot, huh? For one, I like the way your generation comes up with these cool monikers. By servebots, I am assuming you mean a really big server like John Isner or Reilly Opelka.
As a side note, I do think people underestimate Isner’s and Opelka's games when they label them as servebots. And more to the point, I agree that Federer might have a tough time against a really big server or a player with explosive groundstrokes.
But then a lot rides on Roger Federer in these matches too. Let's not forget that on a good day, Federer still ranks among the best servers in the men's game. If he can hold his serve and get into a tie-break situation, he's got a pretty good shot at winning those tie-breaks, don't you think?
Roger Federer, in fact, has the best win-loss record in tie-breaks as per the ATP website. And he has been in those pressure-filled moments far more often than a lot of the other players out on tour.
I mistakenly wrote off Federer from winning another Grand Slam title after the 2014 US Open. Back then, I didn't really understand how a champion's mindset and motivation work. But now I know that we can never be 100% certain about anything when it comes to tennis.
Whatever draw he gets in London, I believe that Roger Federer - assuming he is fit and that his knee is not holding him back - has a shot at winning Wimbledon. And that's simply because HE thinks he has a chance.
As long as he believes that, his fans would be justified in holding out hope.
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