Dominic Thiem will be the toughest opponent for Novak Djokovic at USO, says data analyst

Tennis data analyst Mike James has explained why Dominic Thiem will likely be the toughest opponent for World No. 1 Novak Djokovic at US Open 2020. He said that Thiem has an excellent serving record on hardcourt over the last one year, which gives him an advantage over his fellow challengers.

James also mentioned the names of Matteo Berrettini and Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he believes that Dominic Thiem has the best chance to stop Novak Djokovic. In his technical preview on Ubitennis, the Brit also picked Djokovic and Serena Williams as the favorites to win the US Open this year.

If I had to pick one player on a hardcourt to challenge Novak Djokovic it would be Dominic Thiem: James

Novak Djokovic has won 7 of his 11 matches against Dominic Thiem

When asked about the players with the best chance of ousting 2018 US Open winner Novak Djokovic from the tourney, Mike James replied:

"From a serve perspective Matteo Berrettini, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Dominic Thiem lead the way for winning 1st and 2nd serve points on hard courts in the last 52 weeks. The serve will be more important this year as the court surface is quicker than previous years. If I had to pick one player on a hard court to challenge Novak it would be Thiem."

Besides picking Dominic Thiem as Novak Djokovic's most formidable opponent, James also expressed his belief that Thiem is the best player among the younger generation.

"At the moment, Thiem has been the most consistent across the whole season and most active with exhibition events during the Tour break. His experience of reaching Slam finals gives him the edge over the others," James continued.

The tennis data analyst named Italian teenager Jannik Sinner as the underdog in the race to the US Open title and listed Djokovic, Thiem, Gael Monfils and Andrey Rublev as the best 'under pressure' players on hard court. He added that he had considered the percentage of break points converted and saved, percentage of tie-breaks won, and the rate of deciding sets won to form this list.

Why Dominic Thiem could be a serious threat to Novak Djokovic at the US Open

Dominic Thiem's serve is his key strength

Austrian tennis star Dominic Thiem is a relentless ball-striker whose power off both the serve and the groundstrokes makes it very difficult for opponents to get easy points against him.

Thiem holds the 15th position in the hardcourts' serve leaderboard over the last 52 weeks, with a rating of 282.9. The World No. 3 has won 86% of his service games in this period, which is quite high for a player of his returning capabilities.

Thiem's average double faults per match is 2.5, which is much better than Daniil Medvedev and Milos Raonic who are similarly good servers. In the 2020 Australian Open final against Novak Djokovic, Thiem won 17 service points more than his Serbian opponent, and also at one point won six games on the trot.

It will be interesting to see if Dominic Thiem can get his mojo back and stay alive in the US Open till the end. He cannot meet Novak Djokovic before the grand finale, so Mike James' point about him being the strongest challenger to the Serb will be moot if Thiem loses early.