Estoril Open 2025: Alex Michelsen vs Luca Nardi preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Rohit
Alex Michelsen vs Luca Nardi is one of the quarterfinal matches at the Estoril Open 2025. (Photos: Getty)
Alex Michelsen vs Luca Nardi is one of the quarterfinal matches at the Estoril Open 2025. (Photos: Getty)

Match Details

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Fixture: (2) Alex Michelsen vs Luca Nardi

Date: May 2, 2025

Tournament: Estoril Open

Round: Quarterfinal

Venue: Clube de Ténis do Estoril, Cascais, Portugal

Surface: Clay

Category: ATP Challenger

Prize Money: €227,270

Live Telecast: Global - ATP Challenger TV


Alex Michelsen vs Luca Nardi preview

Alex Michelsen at the Estoril Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)
Alex Michelsen at the Estoril Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Second seed Alex Michelsen will face Luca Nardi in the quarterfinals of the Estoril Open 2025.

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Michelsen received a bye into the second round, where qualifier Giovanni Fonio awaited him. The American landed the first blow in the opening set, securing a break of serve to go 3-1 up. He maintained his position as the frontrunner until the end to take the set.

Fonio started the second set on a strong note by building a 4-1 lead. However, Michelsen dug deep to level the score. The latter then saved a set point on his own serve at 6-5 to force a tie-break. He came out on top in it to register a 6-4, 7-6 (3) victory.

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Nardi kicked off his run in Estoril with a 6-2, 6-3 win over Aleksandar Kovacevic. He was up against Alexey Vatutin in the second round. The Italian needed a single break of serve in his favor to capture the first set. He continued to dictate the play in the second set as well, breaking his opponent's serve twice to score a comfortable 6-3, 6-2 win.


Alex Michelsen vs Luca Nardi head-to-head

This will be the first meeting between them, so the head-to-head stands at 0-0 for now.

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Alex Michelsen vs Luca Nardi odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Alex Michelsen-140+1.5 (-350)Over 22.5 (-110)
Luca Nardi+100-1.5 (+220)Under 22.5 (-135)
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(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Alex Michelsen vs Luca Nardi prediction

Luca Nardi at the Estoril Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)
Luca Nardi at the Estoril Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Michelsen made a solid start to his campaign in Estoril with his win over Fonio. He won 74 percent of his first serve points and struck 22 winners compared to 29 unforced errors. He's taking part in a Challenger tournament for the first time this year. He has a 13-10 record at the ATP level, with a 2-2 record on clay.

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Michelsen previously reached the quarterfinals in Houston but crashed out in the first round of the Madrid Open. Nardi has failed to impress on the ATP Tour this season, compiling a disappointing 4-7 record. However, he did finish as the runner-up at the Koblenz Challenger in January.

Nardi has also been in fine form at the Estoril Open. He has won both of his matches with ease and hasn't dropped his serve even once. He has saved a total of 10 break points across his two matches here.

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While Michelsen has performed better than Nardi this season, in the context of this tournament, the latter has outplayed the former. The Italian hasn't lost more than five games in either of his matches here. He has also shown more affinity for clay compared to the American in their respective careers so far, which could ultimately sway the tide in his favor in this encounter.

Pick: Luca Nardi to win in straight sets.

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Edited by Rohit
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