How does Carlos Alcaraz's return game statistically compare to Rafael Nadal's?

Rafael Nadal is touted as one of the best returners in the history of the sport. The 21-time Grand Slam champion has won more return games than anyone else (4,855) and has the best win percentage in return games (33.55%, winning 4,855 out of 14,472).

The Mallorcan has the best return rating among active players, according to the ATP's official stats-keeper (167.8). He is third on the all-time list, behind only Guillermo Coria (171.4) and Guillermo Perez Roldan (168.2).

Interestingly, it seems Carlos Alcaraz is well on track to emulate his childhood idol. The teenager has been compared to the 35-year-old in many respects, and is widely regarded as the biggest tennis prospect to come out of Spain since Nadal himself.

That much was obvious during their semi-final encounter at the 2022 Indian Wells Masters, where Alcaraz matched his hero shot-for-shot before eventually falling in a nail-biting three-setter. Before the match began, tennis commentator Paul Annacone had commented on the World No. 16's tendency to break serve, remarking that he was surprisingly close to the World No. 3 in this aspect.

That statement has now been proven beyond doubt thanks to the latest statistics report released by the ATP tour. Based on their analysis of return points over the last seven years (from 2015 to the 2022 Indian Wells Masters), Carlos Alcaraz leads the men's circuit when it comes to breaking serve after taking the first point of the game.

In other words, no other player (who has played 30 or more matches in the aforementioned period) is as likely as the Spaniard to break their opponent's serve after reaching 0-15. Alcaraz wins 51.8% of such games, 0.6% more than Nadal himself. Diego Schwartzman is in third position, winning exactly half the number of games (50%) he manages to take a 0-15 lead in. Overall, the tour average under such circumstances is only 38.4%.

Carlos Alcaraz also leads the tour in return games won after winning the first two points. The teenager wins a staggering 77.8% of the games that he manages to take a 0-30 lead in, almost 5% more than Nadal's 72.9%. The third position is once again held by Diego Schwartzman (60%), while the tour average is only 59.4%.

Finally, the World No. 16 is also the leader in terms of return games won after winning two of the first four points. From 30-30, Alcaraz manages to break serve 38.5% of the time, which puts him marginally ahead of the 21-time Grand Slam champion's 38.3% conversion rate. Schwartzman is much closer this time around, only 1.4% behind the Mallorcan. The tour as a whole is much further below with an average of 27.8%.

Rafael Nadal leads Carlos Alcaraz and the rest of the field in 3 categories

Rafael Nadal manages to win most return games on the ATP tour from the deuce position

Rafael Nadal, however, still leads the tour in three categories. For starters, no player breaks his opponent's serve as often as the Spaniard does after securing two of the first three points.

From 15-30, the 35-year-old converts 58.7% of the games he contests, almost an entire percentage point more than Carlos Alcaraz's 57.8%. With a 55.1% conversion rate, Diego Schwartzman sits in third place. The tour average is significantly lower at 45.2%.

The World No. 3 also breaks serve more often than any other player after winning three of the first four points of the game. Once he races to a 15-40 lead, Rafael Nadal ends up winning 80.6% of his return games. The second position is shared by Alcaraz and Miomir Kecmanovic, who win 80.3% of such games -- almost eight percent ahead of the tour average of 72.4%.

Finally, the former World No. 1 is the best when it comes to breaking serve from deuce. Nadal wins an impressive 40.6% of the games, while Alcaraz lags slightly behind at 40.3%. The third-best in this metric is Sebastian Korda, who wins 38.1% of his return games after reaching 40-40. The tour average, meanwhile, is only 28.7%.

It should be noted that all of these statistics are in terms of percentage, so Nadal will be head and shoulders above his countryman in terms of raw numbers. Nonetheless, it is still impressive to see that Alcaraz's numbers hold up when compared to his idol at such a young age.

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