How Rafael Nadal can overtake Carlos Alcaraz to finish the year as World No. 1

Rafael Nadal entered the top two of the ATP Rankings last week despite not playing. Casper Ruud's early losses at the Korea Open and the Japan Open gave Nadal - who has not played since his US Open fourth-round exit - the World No. 2 spot. The Spanish great now has a better shot at ending the season as World No. 1 than he did just two weeks ago.

A few months ago, however, Nadal was the favorite to end the season as the No. 1 and led the ATP race until the US Open. However, he lost the lead to US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz, who ended the tournament as World No. 1 and currently holds the spot.

Alcaraz had a golden opportunity to further tighten his grip on the top spot but failed to do so as he lost in his first match at the Astana Open earlier this week. As things stand, Alcaraz has 6,740 ranking points to Nadal's 5,810, holding a 930-point lead.

The 22-time Grand Slam champion has no points to defend before the end of the season, meaning that he only stands to gain points from the tournaments he participates in during the rest of the season. He ended his 2021 season before the US Open and returned to the tour at the start of 2022.

Meanwhile, Alcaraz has only 280 points to defend until the end of the season, 10 of which he will lose from last year's re-scheduled Indian Wells Masters in October, where he lost in the first round. So Alcaraz effectively has 270 points to defend - 180 from his semifinal run at the 2021 Vienna Open and 90 from his Round of 16 appearance at the 2021 Paris Masters.

While Alcaraz is also set to drop 180 points from the Vienna Open as he will not participate in the tournament this year, he has a chance to recover those points and earn some more as he will play in the Swiss Indoors Basel that same week (October 24-30). The World No. 1 then has another good chance to earn more points during the week of the Paris Masters if he reaches the quarterfinals and beyond.

Rafael Nadal will need strong performances at the Paris Masters and ATP Finals

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Carlos Alcaraz is certainly the frontrunner in the year-end No. 1 battle and is expected to defend most of his 280 points before the end of the season. If he is able to do so, he will retain the sizeable lead he currently holds over Rafael Nadal in the ATP Rankings. But even if he loses those 280 points, Nadal will have to produce deep runs at either the Paris Masters or the ATP Finals to close the gap on his fellow Spaniard and become the World No. 1 for the first time since early 2020.

What works in Nadal's favor is that he stands to earn the full quote of 2,500 points from those tournaments - 1,000 at the Paris Masters and 1,500 at the ATP Finals. However, he has never won either of those tournaments. Given that Alcaraz will earn points in Paris at any stage after the Round of 16 and has no points to defend in the ATP Finals in Turin, it becomes even more important for the 36-year-old to reach the latter stages of both events if he is to finish the year as No. 1 for the sixth time in his career.

Additionally, Nadal is yet to confirm his participation in any of the remaining tournaments this season after taking a break from the tour post the US Open, barring a special appearance at the Laver Cup to join his great rival and friend Roger Federer in his farewell tournament.