Indian Wells 2023: Aryna Sabalenka vs Evgeniya Rodina preview, head-to-head & prediction | BNP Paribas Open

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Aryna Sabalenka (L) and Evgeniya Rodina.
Aryna Sabalenka (L) and Evgeniya Rodina.

Match details

Fixture: (2) Aryna Sabalenka vs (PR) Evgeniya Rodina.

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open.

Round: Second round (Round of 64).

Venue: Indian Wells, California, USA.

Category: WTA 1000.

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt.

Prize money: $8,800,000.

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video.


Aryna Sabalenka vs Evgeniya Rodina preview

Aryna Sabalenka at the 2023 Australian Open.
Aryna Sabalenka at the 2023 Australian Open.

Following a first-round bye, World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka will kick off her Indian Wells campaign against Evgeniya Rodina in the second round on Friday.

Sabalenka clinched her 11th career title and her first since May 2021 at the Adelaide International 1 in January. She defeated Liudmila Samsonova, Marketa Vondrousova, Irina Camelia Begu and Linda Noskova during her title-winning run.

Sabalenka then scored straight-sets wins over Tereza Martincova, Shelby Rogers, Elise Mertens and Belinda Bencic to reach the Australian Open quarterfinals for the first time. The Belarusian eased past Donna Vekic after that and knocked out Magda Linette to reach a maiden Grand Slam final.

Sabalenka was up against Elena Rybakina in the championship round. She dropped the opening set, but staged a comeback to clinch her first singles Grand Slam title.

Sabalenka then competed at the Dubai Tennis Championships and started off with wins over Lauren Davis and Jelena Ostapenko. She led Barbora Krejcikova 6-0, 3-1 in the quarterfinals, but went on to lose the match in three sets. It marked her first defeat of the season and she will want to bounce back in this match.

Meanwhile, Evgeniya Rodina took on Alize Cornet in the first round of the BNP Paribas Open. She started the match with a break of serve to go 2-0 up. The Russian then bagged the last three games of the set to clinch the opener.

The duo started the second set by trading service breaks. Rodina pulled ahead by securing another break of serve to lead 4-2, but Cornet then reeled off the next three games to go 5-4 up.

The momentum swung back in Rodina's favor after that as she claimed the next three games to win the match 6-2, 7-5. This was her first win at the WTA level this year.


Aryna Sabalenka vs Evgeniya Rodina head-to-head

Sabalenka leads Rodina 1-0 in the head-to-head on the WTA tour. She won their previous encounter at the 2017 Tashkent Open in straight sets.


Aryna Sabalenka vs Evgeniya Rodina odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap Bets
Total Games
Aryna Sabalenka
-3000+1.5 (-10000)
Over 17.5 (+100)
Evgeniya Rodina
+1000-1.5 (+1650)
Under 17.5 (-145)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Aryna Sabalenka vs Evgeniya Rodina prediction

Evgeniya Rodina at the 2018 US Open.
Evgeniya Rodina at the 2018 US Open.

After being away from the tour for a couple of years, Rodina made her comeback at last year's US Open. She hasn't made much of a splash since her return, but her first-round win over Cornet was quite solid.

Rodina managed to keep prolonging the rallies with her defensive skills until the point swung in her favor. Cornet didn't take advantage of her rather attackable serve, a mistake Sabalenka is unlikely to commit.

Rodina is likely to be outhit by the Belarusian and might find it tough to handle the pace and power coming off of her opponent's racquet in the next round. Given Sabalenka's season so far, it's tough to see her losing this contest.

Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets.

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