Italian Open 2023: Novak Djokovic vs Grigor Dimitrov, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Fixture: (1) Novak Djokovic vs (26) Grigor Dimitrov

Date: Sunday, May 14

Tournament: Italian Open 2023

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €7,705,780

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

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Novak Djokovic vs Grigor Dimitrov preview

Djokovic is through to the third round in Rome.

Top seed Novak Djokovic takes on 26th seed Grigor Dimitrov as a place in the Italian Open fourth round beckons.

The World No. 1 was sluggish on his return to action since a quarterfinal defeat to compatriot Dusan Lajovic in the inaugural Banja Luka Open in Srpska last month. Djokovic did emerge victorious in straight sets against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in his opener but was far from his imperious best.

In an error-strewn opening set, the 35-year-old leaked 21 unforced errors and squandered two set points at 5-4 as a tiebreak ensued. There, the Serb found himself 5-3 down before reeling off the last four points to draw first blood.

Djokovic improved after a health scare in the first set tiebreak, dropping just two games to bring up his 18th win of the season in 21 matches. In the process, the defending champion improved to 65-10 in the Italian capital.

Meanwhile, the 33rd-ranked Dimitrov outlasted Stan Wawrinka in a battle of single-handers to improve to 12-10 on the season. The 31-year-old was imperious on serve, winning 35 of 40 points, and won all 12 points at the net.

Earlier in the season, Dimitrov reached the Rotterdam semifinals and Marseille quarterfinals and is now 11-10 in Rome, having lost in the second round last year.

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Novak Djokovic vs Grigor Dimitrov head-to-head

Djokovic has won all but one of his 11 meetings with Dimitrov. The Serb won the pair's last meeting in the Australian Open third round this year. Interestingly, they have split their two clashes on clay.

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Novak Djokovic vs Grigor Dimitrov odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (over/under)
Novak Djokovic	-700	-5.5 (+120)	Over 20.5 (-110)
Grigor Dimitrov	+450	+5.5 (-165)	Under 20.5 (-130)

(All odds as per BETMGM)

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Novak Djokovic vs Grigor Dimitrov prediction

Dimitrov is into the third round.

Both Djokovic and Dimitrov look to dominate opponents from the back of the court, but the Serb takes the edge in terms of his superior all-court game, consistency, and elite movement.

Djokovic showed signs of rust in his opener against Etcheverry, while Dimitrov put up a far cleaner performance against Wawrinka. However, the Serb 'owns' his rivalry with Dimitrov and has never lost before the quarterfinals in Rome in 16 previous appearances.

Moreover, in terms of claycourt pedigree, Djokovic has a clear edge, going 260-65 and winning 18 titles - six of them in Rome. Dimitrov, by contrast, is 88-62 on red dirt, winning one title. Considering the same, Djokovic should find a way to take the win.

Pick: Djokovic in three sets