Italian Open 2024: Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (14) Tommy Paul vs (21) Nicolas Jarry

Date: May 18, 2024

Tournament: Italian Open 2024

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Clay

Prize money: £7,877,020

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN+

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Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry preview

Tommy Paul and Nicolas Jarry will lock horns at the 2024 Italian Open, with a spot in the Masters 1000 event’s summit clash at stake.

Paul, the 14th seed at this year’s Italian Open, came into the tournament with only a couple of claycourt matches under his belt this season.

He, however, struck form immediately and improved his overall win-loss record for the year to 19-7. He has beaten the likes of Aslan Karatsev, Daniil Medvedev and most recently Hubert Hurkacz. The only time Paul dropped a set was in the quarterfinal against Hurkacz, but prevailed 7-5, 3-6, 6-3.

Jarry snapped a four-match losing streak in Rome.

Jarry, meanwhile, snapped a four-match losing streak when he beat Matteo Arnaldi in his opener here at the Italian Open. He has since taken out the likes of Stefano Napolitano, Alexandre Müller and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The 3-6, 7-5, 6-4 win over Tsitsipas marked his second top-10 win of the season. He had earlier beaten Carlos Alcaraz en route to the summit clash at the Rio Open.

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Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry head-to-head

Jarry leads Paul in their current head-to-head 1-0, having beaten his opponent at the 2023 French Open.

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Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Tommy Paul
Nicolas Jarry

(Odds to be updated)

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Tommy Paul vs Nicolas Jarry prediction

Paul lost his last match to Jarry at last year's French Open.

Tommy Paul’s powerful baseline-oriented game is best suited for the hardcourts, but he has shown that he can play well on the red dirt too.

The American has been especially impressive on return, having scored a whopping 19 breaks of serve — averaging well over 60% of points won in the second serve return — in his four matches.

He will need every bit of that magic against a big server like Jarry. The lanky Chilean has fired down 37 aces over the last few days. More impressively, he has managed to conjure up a big serve when needed the most.

Jarry is fairly comfortable on the surface and already has a finals showing in Rio to boast of. He will also draw confidence from having beaten Paul on clay in their only previous Tour meeting.

If he can stay solid behind serve like he has all week, Jarry may just put enough pressure on his opponent for him to crack.

Prediction: Jarry to win in three sets