Italian Open 2025: Naomi Osaka vs Peyton Stearns preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: Naomi Osaka vs Peyton Stearns

Date: May 12, 2025

Tournament: Italian Open 2025

Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy

Surface: Clay

Category: WTA 1000

Prize Money: $6,831,315

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Naomi Osaka vs Peyton Stearns preview

Osaka at the 2025 Italian Open (Source: Getty)

Naomi Osaka will face Peyton Stearns in the fourth round of the 2025 Italian Open on Monday, May 12. The winner will take on Elina Svitolina or Danielle Collins in the next round.

Following an average outing on hardcourts, Osaka commenced her clay swing at the Madrid Open. She suffered a first-round defeat to Lucia Bronzetti at the WTA 1000 event. However, the Japanese bounced back at the L'Open 35 de Saint Malo, where she was crowned the champion.

Osaka continued her great form at the Italian Open, as she powered through the first round to secure a 6-2, 6-3 win over Sara Errani. She then rallied from a set down to beat Viktorija Golubic, 2-6, 7-5, 6-1, in the second round. The former World No. 1 completed another comeback, this time against Marie Bouzkova, 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, to reach the fourth round.

Meanwhile, Stearns played two clay tournaments before the Italian Open. While she suffered a first-round exit in Charleston, the American played impressive tennis in Madrid to reach the fourth round. She failed to reach the quarterfinals after losing to eventual champion Aryna Sabalenka.

Stearns started her campaign in Rome with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Nuria Brancaccio before getting the better of 28th-seed Anna Kalinskaya, 6-2, 6-3, in the second round. The American's most notable win in recent times came in the third round, when she overcame fifth-seed Madison Keys, 2-6, 6-2, 7-6(3).

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Naomi Osaka vs Peyton Stearns head-to-head

This will be their first meeting on the tour. Hence, the head-to-head stands at 0-0 heading into Monday's fixture.

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Naomi Osaka vs Peyton Stearns odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Peyton Stearns	+100	+1.5 (-235)	Over 20.5 (-160)
Naomi Osaka	-130	-1.5 (+160)	Under 20.5 (+110)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM.)

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Naomi Osaka vs Peyton Stearns prediction

Stearns in action at the 2025 Italian Open (Source: Getty)

Despite facing injury struggles earlier this season, Osaka has looked in great shape recently. The four-time Grand Slam champion has been powerful with her serves in Rome, hitting 19 aces so far.

Stearns' campaign has been even more impressive given the opponents she has defeated. The American must be brimming with confidence after getting the better of the Australian Open champion.

There is nothing much separating the two players ahead of the fixture. However, Stearns has a slight edge, given her relatively better fitness and impressive display on clay this season. Hence, she is expected to advance to the next round.

Pick: Stearns to win in three sets.