Italian Open 2025: Paula Badosa vs Naomi Osaka preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (9) Paula Badosa vs Naomi Osaka

Date: May 8, 2025

Tournament: Italian Open 2025

Round: Second Round (Round of 64)

Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy

Surface: Clay

Category: WTA 1000

Prize Money: €6,009,593

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Paula Badosa vs Naomi Osaka preview

Paula Badosa at the Italian Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Ninth seed Paula Badosa will lock horns with four-time Major champion Naomi Osaka in the second round of the Italian Open 2025 on Thursday.

Badosa advanced to her maiden major semifinal at the Australian Open at the start of the season. While she didn't make much of an impact in her next two tournaments, posting a 1-2 record, she performed reasonably at the Dubai Tennis Championships. She gave Elena Rybakina a tough fight in the third round but lost to her in three sets.

Badosa's recurring back injury has derailed her season since then. She retired from her quarterfinal showdown at the Merida Open and then pulled out of the BNP Paribas Open.

While she managed to reach the fourth round of the Miami Open upon her return, she gave a walkover to Alexandra Eala due to her injury acting up once again. The Spaniard will compete in a tournament for the first time since March. As one of the seeded players at the Italian Open, she received a first-round bye.

Osaka arrived in Rome on the heels of her maiden title on clay, albeit at the Challenger level, in Saint-Malo. She was up against former top 10 player Sara Errani in the first round.

Osaka raced to a 5-1 lead in the opening set but faltered while trying to close out the set, dropping her serve for the first time in the match. Nevertheless, she broke back immediately to take the set. It looked like Errani would offer her some resistance after going 3-1 up in the second set. However, the former World No. 1 nabbed the next five games for a 6-2, 6-3 win.

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Paula Badosa vs Naomi Osaka head-to-head

This will be the first meeting between them, so the head-to-head is tied at 0-0 for now.

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Paula Badosa vs Naomi Osaka odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Paula Badosa	+145	-1.5 (+290)	Over 21.5 (-105)
Naomi Osaka	-190	+1.5 (-500)	Under 21.5 (-135)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Paula Badosa vs Naomi Osaka prediction

Naomi Osaka at the Italian Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Osaka lost in the first round of the Madrid Open to begin her clay swing on a disappointing note. However, her decision to compete in a Challenger tournament paid off big time. With a title and more matches under her belt, she will aim to better her fourth-round finish in Rome from a year ago.

Osaka blasted close to 40 winners over the course of her first-round win against Errani and won 91 percent of points on the back of her first serve. It was a strong performance against a player she was expected to beat. As for Badosa, this will be her first match in nearly two months and her first on clay this season as well.

Given her injury struggles and lack of match play, it's tough to see Badosa taking this one. She has a better record on clay compared to Osaka, with a 68 percent winning rate against 53 percent for her rival. However, the former World No. 1 has momentum on her side at the moment. Given her current form, she has a good shot to upstage the Spaniard to score her first top-10 win of the season.

Pick: Naomi Osaka to win in straight sets.