Japan Open 2023 Final: Ben Shelton vs Aslan Karatsev preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: Ben Shelton vs Aslan Karatsev

Date: October 22, 2023

Match Timing: 3: 30 pm local time, 3: 30 am ET, 1 pm IST, 7: 30 am GMT

Tournament: Japan Open Tennis Championships 2023

Round: Final

Venue: Ariake Coliseum, Tokyo, Japan

Category: ATP 500

Surface: Hard

Prize money: $2,013,940

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | Canada - TSN | UK - Amazon Prime Video

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Ben Shelton vs Aslan Karatsev preview

Ben Shelton in action at the Japan Open

Ben Shelton will take on Aslan Karatsev in the final of the Japan Open.

The American started with a hard-fought 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(2) win over Taro Daniel before triumphing 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-3 over Jordan Thompson to reach the quarterfinals. Here, he beat fifth seed Tommy Paul 6-4, 6-2 to set up a semi-final clash with another fellow American in Marcos Giron.

Shelton made the first break of the match in the seventh game before Giron broke back to level the score at 5-5. A tiebreak eventually ensued and Giron won it 7-2 to take the lead in the match. The second set saw the 30-year-old cruise to a 5-2 lead before Shelton staged a remarkable fightback to force the set into a tiebreaker. The 21-year-old edged out Giron 5-2 to level the match and force it into a decider.

Shelton saved three break points early in the third set before making a crucial break in the seventh game. This turned out to be decisive as he registered a 6-7(2), 7-6(5), 6-4 win to reach his maiden ATP singles final.

Karatsev started the Japan Open against sixth seed Frances Tiafoe and stunned the American 6-3, 7-6(4). He then ousted Zhizhen Zhang 6-3, 6-4 to book his place in the quarterfinals, where his opponent was fourth seed Alex de Minaur.

The Russian produced some fine tennis to claim his second seeded victim in Tokyo, triumphing 6-3, 6-2 over the Aussie to reach the semifinals.

Here, his opponent was local boy Shintaro Mochizuki, who had been one of the tournament's surprise packages. Both players saved a break point early in the opening set before Karatsev broke Mochizuki's serve. He eventually won the set 6-3.

Karatsev made another crucial break in the sixth game of the second set to lead 4-2. The Russian eventually went on to take the set 6-4 to reach his fifth ATP singles final.

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Ben Shelton vs Aslan Karatsev head-to-head

Shelton leads 1-0 in the head-to-head between the two, having previously beaten Karatsev 6-4, 3-6, 6-0, 6-2 in the third round of this year's US Open.

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Ben Shelton vs Aslan Karatsev odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (Over & Under)
Ben Shelton	-120	-1.5 (+190)	Over 23.5 (-105)
Aslan Karatsev	+100	+1.5 (-275)	Under 23.5 (-135)

All odds are sourced from BETMGM.

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Ben Shelton vs Aslan Karatsev prediction

Shelton will enter the match as the favorite but Karatsev has beaten the likes of Frances Tiafoe and Alex de Minaur earlier in Tokyo and should not be written off.

Shelton has won 187 out of 252 points (74.2%) so far on his first serve with 45 aces to his name. The American's serve has been a key weapon for him and he will look to fetch as many free points as possible.

Shelton's aggression, speed and on-court movement will come in handy, and considering how he did against Giron, we can also expect him to be composed, which could always be a deciding factor in a final.

Karatsev has had impressive numbers on his first serve, winning 120 out of 153 points (78.4%) and serving 23 aces. The Russian hits his shots with a lot of power and maintain aggression throughout the match will be crucial if he is to come out on top. However, he will also have to be careful not to hit too many unforced errors.

Karatsev is yet to drop a set in Tokyo and while he has beaten two players who are ranked higher than Shelton, the American just seems tough to beat at the moment and he should manage to come out on top, even if it is by narrow margins, and win his maiden ATP singles title.

Pick: Shelton to win in three sets.