Japan Open 2025: Sebastian Korda vs Sho Shimabukuro preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Sebastian Korda and Sho Shimabukuro to vie for a QF spot at Japan Open 2025 | Image Source: Getty
Sebastian Korda and Sho Shimabukuro to vie for a QF spot at Japan Open 2025 | Image Source: Getty

Match Details

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Fixture: Sebastian Korda vs Sho Shimabukuro

Date: September 26, 2025

Tournament: Japan Open Tennis Championships

Round: Second Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Ariake Coliseum, Tokyo, Japan

Category: ATP 500

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $2,226,470

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN


Sebastian Korda vs Sho Shimabukuro preview

Sebastian Korda is in dire need of a deep run in Tokyo | Image Source: Getty
Sebastian Korda is in dire need of a deep run in Tokyo | Image Source: Getty

USA's Sebastian Korda will face local favorite Sho Shimabukuro in the second round of the 2025 Japan Open on Friday (September 26).

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Apart from a quarterfinal run at the Miami Open and a semifinal finish at the Winston-Salem Open, Korda has failed to make his mark on the ATP Tour this year. Having achieved his career-high singles ranking of 15 last August, the 25-year-old fell to as low as 86th in the world a few weeks ago. The American is looking to make amends for his listless form at this week's Japan Open, where he is making his tournament debut.

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In his first-round outing against his higher-ranked compatriot Marcos Giron, the World No. 74 reversed a set deficit before scoring a 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(4) victory in two hours and 32 minutes. He will next face Japanese qualifier Shimabukuro, who has yet to drop a set in his three matches at the ATP 500 tournament.

The World No. 273, who beat Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Mariano Navone in the qualifying rounds, later secured his first tour-level win in two years by downing fifth-seeded Tomas Machac 6-3, 7-6(4). The 28-year-old mostly plies his trade on the ATP Challenger circuit and is making his first main draw appearance in Tokyo since 2023.

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Sebastian Korda vs Sho Shimabukuro head-to-head

Korda and Shimabukuro have never faced off on the ATP Tour so their head-to-head record stands at 0-0.


Sebastian Korda vs Sho Shimabukuro odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games (Over/Under)
Sho Shimabukuro+240+1.5 (-110)Over 22.5 (+100)
Sebastian Korda-325-1.5 (-130)Under 22.5 (-145)
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All bets sourced from BetMGM.


Sebastian Korda vs Sho Shimabukuro prediction

Sho Shimabukuro hits a backhand | Image Source: Getty
Sho Shimabukuro hits a backhand | Image Source: Getty

At an imposing height of 6'5, Korda remains one of the biggest hitters on the men's pro tour regardless of his recent struggles with inconsistency. The American possesses smooth groundstrokes on both wings, which coupled with a potent serve, allows him to stay on top of opponents from the baseline. That said, there is a lot more to be desired from his movement.

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Shimabukuro, meanwhile, is tall for a Japanese player and has a quick-strike style of play, with his down-the-line backhand being a great weapon at offsetting his opponents' rhythm. Moreover, the Challenger veteran is likely to be buoyed by his home crowd at the Ariake Coliseaum, meaning Korda will have to be at his best to win convincingly.

Pick: Korda to win in straight sets.

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Edited by Rudra Biswas
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