Japan Open 2025: Taylor Fritz vs Gabriel Diallo preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Taylor Fritz and Gabriel Diallo to clash for the third time on ATP Tour at Japan Open 2025 | Image Source: Getty
Taylor Fritz and Gabriel Diallo to clash for the third time on ATP Tour at Japan Open 2025 | Image Source: Getty

Match Details

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Fixture: (2) Taylor Fritz vs Gabriel Diallo

Date: September 24, 2025

Tournament: Japan Open 2025

Round: First Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Ariake Coliseum, Tokyo, Japan

Category: ATP 500

Surface: Outdoor hard

Prize Money: $2,226,470

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN


Taylor Fritz vs Gabriel Diallo preview

Taylor Fritz hits a forehand at Laver Cup | Image Source: Getty
Taylor Fritz hits a forehand at Laver Cup | Image Source: Getty

Second-seeded Taylor Fritz will face fast-rising Gabriel Diallo in the second round of the 2025 Japan Open on Wednesday (September 24).

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Fritz has been in impressive form over the last few months. The World No. 5 reached the quarterfinals of the US Open earlier in September, which he has since followed up with a stellar Laver Cup campaign. The American rose to the occasion at the three-day competition this weekend, beating Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev on Day 2 and Day 3, respectively, to guide Team World to its third-ever title at the exhibition event.

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The 27-year-old will now be eager to take his rich vein of form to this week's Japan Open, where he won the title in 2023. The second seed will take on World No. 35 Diallo, who has put together his career-best season on the ATP Tour in 2025. The 23-year-old has accumulated a 26-19 win/loss record thus far and picked up his maiden tour-level title at the Libema Open in June.


Taylor Fritz vs Gabriel Diallo head-to-head

Fritz leads Diallo 2-0 in their head-to-head meetings on the ATP Tour. While the American needed five sets to beat the Canadian in a second-round thriller at 2025 Wimbledon, he won much more comfortably in their Canadian Open clash a month later.

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Taylor Fritz vs Gabriel Diallo odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games (Over/Under)
Gabriel Diallo+310-1.5 (+550)Over 22.5 (-130)
Taylor Fritz-450+1.5 (-1400)Under 22.5 (-110)
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All bets sourced from BetMGM.


Taylor Fritz vs Gabriel Diallo prediction

Gabriel Diallo prepares to hit a backhand | Image Source: Getty
Gabriel Diallo prepares to hit a backhand | Image Source: Getty

Fritz has been the benefactor of having one of the best serves on the men's tour for some time now. According to the ATP Serve Leaderboard, he has won a tour-best 79.4% of his first-serve points. Where the 27-year-old has improved recently though, is his return game, which was instrumental in his wins against Alcaraz and Zverev last week.

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Diallo, meanwhile, also has an impressive serve thanks to his towering height of 6'8. However, the youngster's baseline game suffers from low margin and consistency issues that have a cascade effect on his ability to hold his service games - especially against the top players.

Although the Canadian can be a tricky customer, Fritz is likely to get through this match relatively unscathed if his current form is anything to go by.

Pick: Fritz to win in straight sets.

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Edited by Rudra Biswas
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