Madrid Open 2022: 3 things that could determine the outcome of Novak Djokovic's semifinal clash with Carlos Alcaraz

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic of Serbia will face 7th seed Carlos Alcaraz of Spain in the first semifinal of the Madrid Open on Saturday. Djokovic beat Hubert Hurkacz of Poland in straight sets in the quarterfinals on Friday, while Alcaraz got the better of five-time champion Rafael Nadal in three sets.

It would be interesting to see whether the 19-year old Spaniard will become the first player to beat Nadal and Djokovic back-to-back on claycourt. Quite understandably, Alcaraz will be the crowd favorite in Saturday’s match.

On that note, here's a look at three factors that might determine the outcome of the match:

#1 Novak Djokovic’s ability to prolong the rallies with his backhand

Djokovic's backhand is an excellent defensive stroke

It is common knowledge that Djokovic has one of the greatest backhands in the history of tennis. He will definitely try to use it against the Spanish teenager. Nadal could not find sharp angles with his crosscourt forehand to trouble Alcaraz yesterday, but Djokovic’s backhand is arguably more reliable.

Alcaraz succeeded in pushing Nadal into the far corner of the court with angular shots off his backhand and might try to adopt the same tactic against Djokovic. Alcaraz hit more than 10 winners off his backhand alone on Friday.

Hence, we can expect a lot of crosscourt backhand exchanges and the player who prevails in these will have the upper hand in the match.

#2 Novak Djokovic’s ability to defend against the fierce groundstrokes of Carlos Alcaraz and attack with his forehand:

Alcaraz would look to unleash his fierce groundstrokes against the Serbian

Carlos Alcaraz unleashed a full array of blistering groundstrokes against Nadal and finished the match with 37 winners. He hit 19 of them in the first set and offered Nadal no respite. Alcaraz will try to attack Djokovic from the very beginning and also hurt the Serbian with his powerful groundstrokes.

However, Djokovic’s defensive abilities are second to none. The Serbian’s forehand could be an important shot against the Spaniard on Saturday. He should also try to avoid feeding the Spaniard with too many short balls to avoid facing the brunt of Alcaraz's power.

#3 Carlos Alcaraz’s ability to maintain a high first-serve percentage

For all his heroics against Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz could not serve very well and ended the match with a first-serve percentage of only 56%. In Djokovic, Alcaraz faces one of the greatest returners of all time and the Serbian always relishes his chances against weak second serves. If Alcaraz fails to maintain a high first-serve percentage, he will be punished by Djokovic.

That tactic might catch the Spaniard off-guard and not allow him to hit his groundstrokes with the same bite.

Alcaraz might also come to the net frequently, a tactic that worked against Nadal.